Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS

Recent

The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with NHESS-related topics as well as final revised papers published recently in NHESS.
15 May 2026
Projections of changes in extreme storm surges for European coasts using statistical downscaling
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Angélique Melet, Melisa Menendez, Hector Lobeto, and Jonathan B. Valle-Rodriguez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2269–2290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026, 2026
Short summary
13 May 2026
Seismo-acoustic and GNSS observations of a record-breaking Black Sea storm: repurposing geophysical sensors for environmental monitoring
Laura Petrescu, Bogdan Antonescu, Sorin Nistor, Iustin Floroiu, Dragoş Ene, Daniela Ghica, Constantin Ionescu, Andrei Anghel, and Mihai Datcu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2227–2247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2227-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2227-2026, 2026
Short summary
13 May 2026
Monitoring diffuse volcanic degassing with seismic ambient noise
Helena Seivane and Martin Schimmel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2249–2268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2249-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2249-2026, 2026
Short summary
13 May 2026
Mobile weather radar to provide intelligence on wildfire hazards
Adrien Guyot, Hamish McGowan, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Alberto Alonso-Pinar, Alain Protat, Nicholas McCarthy, Simon Webster, and Amie Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2256,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2256, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
13 May 2026
Subseasonal prediction of compound heat and drought events
Rachel Wai-Ying Wu, Dominik Büeler, Maria Pyrina, Jonathan Day, Adel Imamovic, Vincent Humphrey, and Daniela I.V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2465,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2465, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
12 May 2026
Influence of salt-related mechanical layering on the seismic potential of active faults: Insights from the southwestern Valencia Trough (W Mediterranean)
Iván Martin-Rojas, Adrià Ramos, Menno De Ruig, Iván Medina-Cascales, Eva Santamaría-Pérez, and Pedro Alfaro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2203–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2203-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2203-2026, 2026
Short summary
12 May 2026
The 2024 cascading glacial lake outburst flood in the Thame Valley of Everest region, Nepal: process, impacts and implications
Nitesh Khadka, Vishnu Prasad Pandey, C. Scott Watson, Guoxiong Zheng, Tianpei Wu, Keshab Sharma, Lauren D. Rawlins, Simon Allen, Manish Raj Gouli, and Dibas Shrestha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2011,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2011, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
12 May 2026
Invited perspectives: Uncertainties in natural systems may be uncomfortable, but ignoring them would be absurd
Warner Marzocchi, Alberto Montanari, and the RETURN-uncertainty task force
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2254,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2254, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
12 May 2026
Reducing False Alarms in Small-Scale Slope Early Warning Systems via Deep Learning-Driven Asynchronous Displacement and Rainfall Data Fusion
Shubing Ouyang, Daichao Li, Minjiang Liu, Fengjian Ge, Xia Zheng, Yuan Li, and Sheng Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2352,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2352, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
12 May 2026
Improved Dating of Landslides in Zimbabwe by Combining Satellite Multispectral and Synthetic Aperture Radar Observations
Joanna Noyes, Steven Palmer, Georgina Bennett, Seshagirirao Kolusu, and Caroline Bain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2418,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2418, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
11 May 2026
Considering rainfall events from a neighborhood improves local flood frequency analysis
Paul Voit, Felix Fauer, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2189–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2189-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2189-2026, 2026
Short summary
11 May 2026
Hazard potential of compound flooding from rainfall, storm surge, and groundwater in coastal New York and Connecticut
Robin Glas, Liv Herdman, Salme Cook, Archi Howlader, and Kristina Masterson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2169–2188, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2169-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2169-2026, 2026
Short summary
11 May 2026
A workflow for the identification of earthquake sources from macroseismic data
Veronica Gironelli, Lucia Luzi, Andrea Antonucci, and Andrea Rovida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2323,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2323, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
08 May 2026
The relationships between extreme winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclone hazards and modes of seasonal climate variability
Amanda C. Maycock, Christine M. McKenna, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Jacob Perez, Zhuo Li, and Julia F. Lockwood
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2051–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2051-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2051-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 May 2026
Non-stationary dynamics of compound climate extremes: a WRF-CMIP6-GAMLSS framework for southeastern China
Yinchi Zhang, Wanling Xu, Chao Deng, Shao Sun, Miaomiao Ma, Jianhui Wei, Ying Chen, Yi Wang, Lu Gao, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2031–2050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2031-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2031-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 May 2026
Combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability data to predict historical United States hurricane losses
Alexander F. Vessey, Alexander J. Baker, Vernie Marcellin-Honore, and James Michelin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2133–2150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2133-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2133-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 May 2026
Probabilistic flood hazard mapping for dike-breach floods via graph neural networks
Roberto Bentivoglio, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, Elvin Isufi, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2089–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2089-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2089-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 May 2026
Longitudinal wave power as a proxy for coastal change detection
Marta Aragón, Óscar Ferreira, Alejandro López-Ruiz, and Miguel Ortega-Sánchez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2065–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2065-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2065-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 May 2026
An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States
Alexander N. Gorr, Francis K. Rengers, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew A. Thomas, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2111–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2111-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2111-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 May 2026
Pre-seismic geomagnetic fusion anomaly extraction based on Spatially Weighted Non-negative Tensor Factorization
Baiyi Yang, Kaiguang Zhu, Ting Wang, Donghua Zhang, WenQi Chen, Yiqun Zhang, Pu Wang, Xingsu Li, and Yuqi Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2151–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2151-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2151-2026, 2026
Short summary
06 May 2026
Living amidst Mazuku (dry gas vents): linking hazard and impact perceptions to improve risk communication in Goma, Virunga volcanic province
Blaise Mafuko-Nyandwi, Bosco Mushage, Ishala Mayira, Elie Idrissa, Steev Ndimubanzi, Thérèse Mosange, and Claudine Mafuko
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1776,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1776, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
05 May 2026
Assessment of multiple predictors to the psychological effects of flooding for residential and business areas in Peninsular Malaysia
Shabir Ahmad Kabirzad, Balqis M. Rehan, Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell, Zed Zulkafli, Badronnisa Yusuf, Bakti Hasan-Basri, and Mohd E. Toriman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2015–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2015-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2015-2026, 2026
Short summary
05 May 2026
Characteristics of Extreme Snowfall–Wind-Gust Events in Finland (1960–2024): Frequency, Duration, and Intensity
Taru Olsson, Terhi Laurila, Ari Aaltonen, and Kirsti Jylhä
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2363,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2363, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
04 May 2026
Landfalling tropical cyclones significantly reduce Bangladesh's energy security
Kieran M. R. Hunt and Hannah C. Bloomfield
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1997–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1997-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1997-2026, 2026
Short summary
04 May 2026
Spatially distributed water content thresholds for rainfall-induced landslide initiation
Juby Thomas, Rafael L. Bras, Leonardo V. Noto, and Elisa Arnone
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1599,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1599, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
30 Apr 2026
Detection and characterization of precipitation extremes and geohydrological hazards over a transboundary Alpine area based on different methods and climate datasets
Alice Crespi, Katharina Enigl, Sebastian Lehner, Klaus Haslinger, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1975–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1975-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1975-2026, 2026
Short summary
30 Apr 2026
Temporally Coherent Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Compound Flooding for Reliable Coastal Hazard Estimation
Min Chung, Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, and Philip Jonathan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1899, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
29 Apr 2026
Assessing extreme total water levels across Europe for large-scale coastal flood analysis
Camila Cotrim, Alexandra Toimil, Iñigo J. Losada, Melisa Menéndez, and Hector Lobeto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1935–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1935-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1935-2026, 2026
Short summary
29 Apr 2026
Energy and structural evolution process of high-altitude and long-runout landslides induced by a strong earthquake
Yunfeng Ge, Bin Hu, Huiming Tang, Xiaodong Fu, and Lei Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1955–1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1955-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1955-2026, 2026
Short summary
29 Apr 2026
Application of radar remote sensing for cyclone damage mapping in Bangladesh: A coherence-based approach
Shadmin Islam Prova, Md. Shahoriar Sarker, Rosdania Islam, and Ridad Ibne Mahfuz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1545,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1545, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
29 Apr 2026
Review article: Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning System: Advances, Gaps, and Perspectives
Roquia Salam, Bayes Ahmed, and Peter Sammonds
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2156,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2156, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
28 Apr 2026
Self-Supervised Contrastive Learning in the Context of Volcano-Seismic Datasets
Joe Carthy, Manuel Titos, Flavio Cannavó, Luciano Zuccarello, and Carmen Benítez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1201,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1201, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
28 Apr 2026
Predicting Slope Instabilities in Salvador, Brazil, using Machine Learning and Georeferenced Data
Sandro Machado, Guilherme Santana, Miriam de Fátima Carvalho, Jailma Oliveira, Mehran Karimpour-Fard, and Elio Perrone
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2056,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2056, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
27 Apr 2026
Early identification of reservoir-bank landslides in deeply incised mountain canyon areas with interferometric baseline optimization
Wenfei Xi, Wenyu Hong, Zhiquan Yang, Guangcai Huang, Junqi Guo, Kunwu Yang, and Tingting Jin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1913–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1913-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1913-2026, 2026
Short summary
27 Apr 2026
The deadliest sudden weather-related events in the Czech Lands, 1851–2025 CE
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, Miloslav Müller, Jan Lhoták, and Kateřina Skripniková
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1889–1912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1889-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1889-2026, 2026
Short summary
24 Apr 2026
Leveraging reforecasts for flood estimation with long continuous simulation: a proof-of-concept study
Daniel Viviroli, Martin Jury, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Heimo Truhetz, and Douglas Maraun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1835–1857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1835-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1835-2026, 2026
Short summary
24 Apr 2026
Brief communication: In-situ measurements of basal sliding in natural debris flows
Georg Nagl, Maximilian Ender, Felix Klein, Brian McArdell, Stefan Boss, Jordan Aaron, Friedrich Zott, Johannes Hübl, and Roland Kaitna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1883–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1883-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1883-2026, 2026
Short summary
24 Apr 2026
Pan-European assessment of coastal flood hazards
Camila Cotrim, Alexandra Toimil, Iñigo J. Losada, Sara Novo, and Iria Suárez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1859–1881, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1859-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1859-2026, 2026
Short summary
23 Apr 2026
Future rime ice conditions for energy infrastructure over Fennoscandia resolved with a high-resolution regional climate model
Oskari Rockas, Pia Isolähteenmäki, Marko Laine, Anders V. Lindfors, Karoliina Hämäläinen, and Anton Laakso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1813–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1813-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1813-2026, 2026
Short summary
23 Apr 2026
Brief communication: Contextualizing the September 2024 extreme precipitation in Austria within the climatological record
Sebastian Lehner, Harald Schellander, Theresa Schellander-Gorgas, Matthias Schlögl, and Klaus Haslinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1825,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1825, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
22 Apr 2026
Review article: Hydrologically Enhanced Machine Learning Framework for Urban Flood Inundation Mapping Using Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study of Mumbai, India
Ankush S. Pawar and Gayatri M. Phade
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1275,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1275, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
22 Apr 2026
Analysis of urban-scale typhoon precipitation characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns: A case study of Ningbo, China
Caiming Wu, Yi Lu, Hong-Li Ren, and Fumin Ren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2046,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2046, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
20 Apr 2026
Prototype citizen and community science app for urban heavy rainfall risk management in the Ahr Valley, Germany
Jaqueline Hoffmann, Sascha Nau, Sabrina Abler, Vincent Theis, Peter Fischer-Stabel, Julian Janßen, and Andreas Abecker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1795–1812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1795-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1795-2026, 2026
Short summary
20 Apr 2026
Reservoir-Induced Seismicity in China: Systematic Characterization and Implications for Hazard Assessment
Jiashan Zhang, Changsheng Jiang, Fengling Yin, Yiming Zhu, Hongyu Zhai, Jinmeng Bi, and Yan Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1124,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1124, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
20 Apr 2026
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Stromboli volcano: 2. New simulation database and probabilistic inundation maps and curves
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Juan F. Rodríguez-Gálvez, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Matteo Trolese, Jorge Macías, Manuel J. Castro, Cipriano Escalante, Sergio Ortega, José M. González-Vida, and Stefano Lorito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1602,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1602, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
20 Apr 2026
ROC-optimized rainfall thresholds for typhoon-induced landslides: environmental and magnitude stratification in Zixing City, China
Weifeng Xiao, Ge Liu, Weimin Huang, Zhenghui Xiao, and Luguuang Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1608,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1608, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
17 Apr 2026
Invited perspectives: Four reasons DRR does not work as intended – lessons from the 2025 California wildfires and beyond
Sven Fuchs, Konstantinos Karagiorgos, Margreth Keiler, Lars Nyberg, Maria Papathoma-Köhle, and Annemarie Polderman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1785–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1785-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1785-2026, 2026
Short summary
17 Apr 2026
Reliability Analysis Method for Soil Slopes Permanent Displacement under Mainshock-Aftershock Sequences
Tianyi Wang, Chengda Zhang, Jiangwei Zhang, Su Chen, and Zhijun Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-638,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-638, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
16 Apr 2026
The damability function: a probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA
Paul M. Morgan, Alex Grant, Will Struble, Sean LaHusen, and Alison Duvall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1745-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1745-2026, 2026
Short summary
16 Apr 2026
Assessing sea level rise and extreme events along the China–Europe Sea Route
Rita Lecci, Robyn Gwee, Kun Yan, Sanne Muis, Nadia Pinardi, Jun She, Martin Verlaan, Simona Masina, Wenshan Li, Hui Wang, Salvatore Causio, Antonio Novellino, Marco Alba, Etiënne Kras, Sandra Gaytan Aguilar, and Jan-Bart Calewaert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1767–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, 2026
Short summary
16 Apr 2026
Improved Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels via Non-asymptotic Statistical Methods for Coastal Hazard Assessment
S. Sithara, Chiara Favaretto, Piero Ruol, and Marco Marani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1243,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1243, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
16 Apr 2026
Using artificial intelligence to monitor live fuel moisture content across France, based on a high-resolution land surface analysis
Yann Baehr, Pierre Vanderbecken, Bertrand Bonan, Catherine Robert, Mathieu Regimbeau, François Pimont, Kevyn Raynal, Xiangzhuo Liu, Remi Savazzi, Moncef Garouani, Josiane Mothe, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Lionel Jarlan, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1247,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1247, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
15 Apr 2026
Towards global sensitivity analysis of large-scale flood loss models
Francesca Pianosi, Georgios Sarailidis, Kirsty Styles, Philip Oldham, Stephen Hutchings, Rob Lamb, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1727-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1727-2026, 2026
Short summary
15 Apr 2026
Global Sub-national Impact-based Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones Using Open Data: Combining Machine Learning and Exposure-based Approaches
Federico Moss, Yelena Mejova, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Tristan Downing, Marc van den Homberg, Pauline Ndirangu, Leonardo Milano, and Kyriaki Kalimeri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1996,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1996, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
14 Apr 2026
Quantifying fire effects on debris flow runout using a morphodynamic model and stochastic surrogates
Elaine T. Spiller, Luke A. McGuire, Palak Patel, Abani Patra, and E. Bruce Pitman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1705–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1705-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1705-2026, 2026
Short summary
14 Apr 2026
A geospatial database of coastal characteristics for erosion assessment of Europe's coastal floodplains
Susan E. Hanson, Robert J. Nicholls, Floris R. Calkoen, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Arjen P. Luijendijk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1685–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1685-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1685-2026, 2026
Short summary
14 Apr 2026
Simulating spatial multi-hazards with generative deep learning
Alison Peard, Yu Mo, and Jim W. Hall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1663-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1663-2026, 2026
Short summary
14 Apr 2026
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Stromboli volcano: 1. Review of historical sources and expert elicitation findings
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Emmie M. Bonilauri, Andrew J. L. Harris, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Raphaël Paris, Marco Pistolesi, Matteo Trolese, Juan F. Rodríguez-Gálvez, Daniele Andronico, Antonella Bertagnini, Sonia Calvari, Daniele Casalbore, Michael Cassidy, Riccardo Civico, Elisabetta Del Bello, Alessio Di Roberto, Alessandro Fornaciai, Anita Grezio, Lucia Gurioli, Carl B. Harbitz, Giorgio Lacanna, Finn Løvholt, Michael Marani, Massimo Pompilio, Tullio Ricci, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Roger Urgeles, and Marija Voloschina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
14 Apr 2026
Modeling the potential hazard of wildfires under the influence of climatic, vegetative and anthropogenic factors in the Andean and Amazonian regions of Peru
Yerson Ccanchi, Ricardo Zubieta, Josep Prado, and Jose Sinticala
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1902,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1902, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
13 Apr 2026
Infra-Net: A Robust Parallel Decision-Making Network for Discriminating Natural Hazards and Anthropogenic Infrasound Events via Multi-View Feature Learning
Hongru Li, Xihai Li, Jihao Liu, Shengjie Luo, and Yun Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1544,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1544, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
Short summary
10 Apr 2026
Atmospheric geopotentials from ERA5 linked to the daily maximum temperature record-breaking in Spain (1960–2023)
Elsa Barrio-Torres, Jesús Abaurrea, Jesús Asín, Jorge Castillo-Mateo, Ana Carmen Cebrián, and Zeus Gracia-Tabuenca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-832,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-832, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
10 Apr 2026
Severe convective weather in Italy: Current understanding and Research Priorities in the TIM campaign
Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Alessandro Bracci, Massimiliano Burlando, Francesco Cairo, Federico Canepa, Vincenzo Capozzi, Sebastiano Carpentari, Federico Cassola, Alessandro Ceppi, Silvio Davolio, Francesco De Martin, Giorgio Doglioni, Costanza Di Felice Fabrizi, Luca Di Liberto, Francesco Domenichini, Stefano Federico, Massimo Enrico Ferrario, Federico Grazzini, Antonio Iengo, Sante Laviola, Agostino Manzato, Paolo Paganini, Antonio Parodi, Alessandro Pavan, Andrea Piazza, Arturo Pucillo, Giovanni Ravezzani, Francesco Sioni, Barbara Turato, Gianfranco Vulpiani, Marco Zanatta, and Dino Zardi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1478,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1478, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
10 Apr 2026
Operational damage misclassification in scenario-based ShakeMaps: evidence from station-updated ground-motion fields in a deep-basin urban environment
Fatma İ. Kara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1523,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1523, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
Short summary
10 Apr 2026
Sensitivity analysis and scaling of tsunamis generated by granular flows at Stromboli volcano: A numerical modeling approach
Matteo Trolese, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi, and Alessandro Tadini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1757,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1757, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
09 Apr 2026
Managed Aquifer Recharge in Confined Multi-Layer Aquifers: A Scalable Framework for Drought Resilience in Central Europe
Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali Abdelrahman, Hagen Koch, Mobarok Hossain, Ronjon Heim, Clara Hauke, and Irina Engelhardt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1378,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1378, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
09 Apr 2026
FRAME v1.0: Advancing Fire Risk Assessment in Tropical Fragmented Forests with a Machine Learning Environment
Anasuya Barik and Somnath Baidya Roy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1454,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1454, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
09 Apr 2026
Seismic analysis of bedload discharge at Tagliamento River during flood events
Mario Valerio Gangemi, Julien Barrière, Alfio Marco Borzì, Andrea Cannata, Flavio Cannavò, Adrien Oth, Stefano Parolai, Matteo Picozzi, Concetto Spampinato, Luca Zini, Giulia Barisioni, and Francesco Panzera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1534,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1534, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Review article: Reviewing Berlin's urban parks from the perspectives of socio-economic inequality, climate resilience, and sustainable management
Subham Mukherjee, Kei Namba, Katrin M. Nissen, Ehsan Razipoor, Stefan Heiland, and Brigitta Schütt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1635–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1635-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1635-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Southern Germany's 100-year flash flood discharge expected to increase by 30 % under an RCP8.5 climate
Paul Voit, Marie Hundhausen, Larisa Seregina, Hendrik Feldmann, Bodo Ahrens, and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1229,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1229, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Is the volume-frequency distribution of eruptions a power-law? Accounting for volume uncertainty in modeling the size distribution of volcanic eruptions
Salvatore Ferrara, Jacopo Selva, Jacopo Natale, and Warner Marzocchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1415,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1415, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Forecasting the Flame: Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Northeast Mediterranean
Bikem Ekberzade
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1498,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1498, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Outrunning flash floods: XGBoost and sparse impact reports deliver global medium-range probabilistic forecasts of flash flood occurrence
Fatima M. Pillosu, Mariana Claire, Calum Baugh, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhome, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1591,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1591, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Landslide susceptibility mapping with explainable AI techniques: Evidence from Bavaria, Germany
Veronika Buchauer, Marta Sapena, Christian Geiß, Patrick Aravena Pelizari, and Hannes Taubenböck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1647,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1647, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 5 comments)
Short summary
07 Apr 2026
Applied Machine Learning for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Loukkos Basin (Northern Morocco): Validation Using the February 2026 Ksar El Kebir Flood Event
Oussama Mekkaoui, Moad Morarech, Tarik Bouramtane, and Hamza Akka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1001,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1001, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
07 Apr 2026
Assessing Financial Risk to Property Portfolios from Physical Rainfall Extremes
Laura C. Dawkins, Freya K. Garry, Dan J. Bernie, Jason A. Lowe, and Theodoros Economou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1142,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1142, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
07 Apr 2026
Distinguishing run-up height from pressure distribution during avalanche impact on narrow obstacles: mechanisms and semi-empirical prediction
Michael Josef Kohler, Johan Gaume, Christophe Ancey, and Betty Sovilla
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1181,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1181, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
07 Apr 2026
Universal scaling between precursory duration and event size across mechanically driven geohazards
Qinghua Lei and Didier Sornette
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.07404,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.07404, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
07 Apr 2026
Linear passive source surface wave dispersion curve picking based on supervised deep learning and ambient noise tomography for the evolution of the internal structure in landslide area
Qifeng Yin, Peiqi Wang, Chi Gao, Yuanyuan Zhou, Hua Zhang, Weilong Jiang, and Yanbiao Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1329,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1329, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
02 Apr 2026
A hybrid model based on Boruta feature selection and neural network for forecasting hydrological drought
Min Li, Yuhang Yao, Ming Ou, and Changman Yin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1033,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1033, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
Short summary
02 Apr 2026
Valuing Salt Marshes as Nature-based Infrastructure for Coastal Flood Mitigation: A Case Study of Chatham County, GA
Xinyu Zeng, Dede Long, Yukiko Hashida, and Matthew V. Bilskie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1475,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1475, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
02 Apr 2026
Bayesian forecasting of triggered landslides
Flavia Ferriero, Fausto Guzzetti, and Warner Marzocchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1624,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1624, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
02 Apr 2026
Floods in the European Union and the Middle East and North Africa region: Socio-economic impacts, characteristics, and public perception
Mélanie Coleman, Andries-Jan de Vries, Caroline Roberts, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1827,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1827, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
02 Apr 2026
Brief Communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River- A Multifaceted Post Event Analysis of the July 4, 2025, Flood in Central Texas
Anupal Baruah, Dinuke Munasinghe, Sagy Cohen, Mohamed Abdelkader, Dipsikha Devi, Yixian Chen, and Humberto Vergara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1847,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1847, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
01 Apr 2026
Reconstruction and forecasting of slow-moving landslide displacement using a Kalman Filter approach
Mohit Mishra, Gildas Besançon, Guillaume Chambon, and Laurent Baillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1621-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1621-2026, 2026
Short summary
31 Mar 2026
Development and validation of an Early Warning System for coastal flooding operating on a Mediterranean urban beach
Antonis Chatzipavlis, Daniele Trogu, Andrea Ruju, Juan Montes, Antonio Usai, Marco Porta, Giovanni Coco, Sandro De Muro, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1573–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026, 2026
Short summary
31 Mar 2026
Predicting thunderstorm risk probability at very short time range using deep learning
Mélanie Bosc, Adrien Chan-Hon-Tong, Aurélie Bouchard, and Dominique Béréziat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1603-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1603-2026, 2026
Short summary
31 Mar 2026
Analysis on Multi-Factor Synergistic Hazards Mechanism of Wet Micro-Downburst: a Multi-Source Data Fusion Analysis Based on Passenger Vessel Capsizing Accident in Qianxi, Guizhou on 4 May 2025
Ankun Wu, Xi Guo, Dan Yao, Xiaoling Du, Dongpo He, Jue Li, Shisheng Jin, and Tienan Bai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1561–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1561-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1561-2026, 2026
Short summary
31 Mar 2026
Short-Term Management of Water-Damage Claim Risk Using Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
Håkon Otneim, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Sondre Hølleland, Mahsa Gorji, and Geir Drage Berentsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1169,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1169, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
31 Mar 2026
Can Aerosols improve Urban Flood Prediction? A case study of 2015 Chennai extreme event
Oscar Paul, N. Nithila Devi, Rakesh Teja Konduru, Soumendra Nath Kuiry, Kundan Lal Shrestha, and Chandan Sarangi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1218,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1218, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
31 Mar 2026
A Joint Space-Time Probabilistic Model for Agricultural Droughts, Hydrological Droughts and Fire Weather in France
Benjamin Renard, Renaud Barbero, Issa Goukouni, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Louise Mimeau, Carina Furusho-Percot, Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Maël Aubry, Thomas Opitz, and Denis Allard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1406,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1406, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
30 Mar 2026
Budget Allocation for Emergency Management in Flood-Prone Mining Regions: A System Dynamics Perspective
Dairo Steven Muñoz Pinzón, Diana Rodríguez Coca, William J. Guerrero Rueda, and Leonardo José González Rodríguez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1145,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1145, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
27 Mar 2026
Invited Perspectives: Science for Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management
Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kees Boersma, Tomris Cesuroglu, Nathan Clark, Tina Comes, Ashok Dahal, Sonja Fransen, Jasper Verschuur, Carmen Anthonj, Srijith Balakrishnan, Jens de Bruijn, Eefje Hendriks, Rodrigo Mena Fluhmann, Goda Perlaviciute, Linda Steg, Marc van den Homberg, Cees van Westen, Funda Atun, Anja Schreijer, and Nicole van Maanen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1331,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1331, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
27 Mar 2026
Analysis and modeling of coastal hazards to the desalination plants in the Baltic Sea – disentangling the impacts of a coastal storm in summer 2023
Matteo Masini, Agnes Karlsson, Lars Arneborg, Bengt Karlson, and Inga Monika Koszalka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1344,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1344, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
27 Mar 2026
Effect of Design Storm Characterization on Flood Exposure and Structure Damage Estimates: A Case Study in South Louisiana, USA
Mohamed ElSaadani, Emad Habib, and Mohamed M. Morsy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1388,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1388, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
Short summary
27 Mar 2026
A Study of Pre-earthquake Anomalies in Geomagnetic and Borehole Strain Data Based on the Pyraformer Model
Jie Zhang, Minhao Sun, Changfeng Qin, Feng Mu, Shanzhi Dong, Yu Duan, Dewang Zhang, and Chengquan Chi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1715,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1715, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
25 Mar 2026
Tracking the slopes: a spatio-temporal prediction model for backcountry skiing activity in the Swiss Alps using user-generated content
Leonie Schäfer, Frank Techel, Günter Schmudlach, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1537–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1537-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1537-2026, 2026
Short summary
25 Mar 2026
Toward early warning of drought impacts: a framework for predicting drought impacts in the UK
Burak Bulut, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Opeyemi E. Adedipe, Maliko Tanguy, Lucy J. Barker, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1515–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026, 2026
Short summary
24 Mar 2026
Comparing flood forecasting and early warning systems in northwestern Europe
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella G. L. Oliveira, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1457–1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026, 2026
Short summary
24 Mar 2026
What controls fire size in the South American Gran Chaco? Exploring atmospheric and landscape drivers through Remote Sensing
Rodrigo San Martín, Catherine Ottlé, Anna Sörensson, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Florent Mouillot, and Marielle Malfante
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1479–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026, 2026
Short summary
24 Mar 2026
Simulation of sliding deadwood logs in mountain forests: towards a quantitative hazard assessment
Joël Borner, Peter Bebi, Leon Bührle, Adrian Ringenbach, and Remco Ingmar Leine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-130,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-130, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
CC BY 4.0