Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-613-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-613-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Feb 2018
Research article |
| 28 Feb 2018
| 28 Feb 2018
Physically based approaches incorporating evaporation for early warning predictions of rainfall-induced landslides
Alfredo Reder
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy
Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, CMCC Foundation, 81043 Capua, Italy
Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, CMCC Foundation, 81043 Capua, Italy
Luca Pagano
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Marco Uzielli, Guido Rianna, Fabio Ciervo, Paola Mercogliano, and Unni K. Eidsvig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3019–3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide hazard at a given location may change over time due to climate change, since the frequency and intensity of landslide-triggering factors such as rainfall can vary significantly. It is important for stakeholders and decision-makers to predict trends in landslide hazard to mitigate the risk of losing lives and material assets. This study contributes an innovative method for the prediction of future variations of rainfall-induced landslides and shows its application to an Italian site.
Roberto Greco and Luca Pagano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2213–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2213-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on the main features characterizing predictive models working in early warning systems (EWS), by discussing their aims, the evolution stage of the phenomenon where they should be incardinated, and their architecture, regardless of the specific application field. With reference to flow-like landslide and earth flows, some alternative approaches to the development of the predictive tool and to its implementation in an EWS are described.
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
InSAR-Informed In-Situ Monitoring for Deep-Seated Landslides: Insights from El Forn (Andorra)
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh-Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, William Frodella, Francesco Caleca, Zhanar Raimbekova, Ruslan Umaraliev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1697–1720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01564, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01564, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) alongside in-situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). InSAR data compared with borehole data suggests a key tradeoff between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error on remote-sensing recreation of ground motion over the landslide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-180, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The initiation of debris flows is influenced significantly by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework, which is based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model, aimed at estimating Intensity-Duration (I-D) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically-based framework particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data is scarce.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1975, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy 2022 rainfall. Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type, and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Cited articles
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., Smith, M., and Ab, W.: Crop evapotranspiration – Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/X0490E00.htm (last access: February 2018), 1998.
Allen, R. G., Pruitt, W. O., Raes, D., Smith, M., and Pereira, L. S.: Estimating evaporation from bare soil and the crop coefficient for the initial period using common soils information, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 131, 14–23, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2005)131:1(14), 2005.
Al Qadad, A., Shahrour, I., and Rouainia, M.: Influence of the soil–atmosphere exchange on the hydric profile induced in soil-structure system, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2039–2049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2039-2012, 2012.
An, N., Hemmati, S., and Cui, Y. J.: Numerical analysis of soil volumetric water content and temperature variations in an embankment due to soil–atmosphere interaction, Comput. Geotech., 83, 40–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2016.10.010, 2017.
Arnone, E., Noto, L. V., Lepore, C., and Bras, R. L.: Physically-based and distributed approach to analyze rainfall-triggered landslides at watershed scale, Geomorphology, 133, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.019, 2011.
Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259–272, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0177-0, 2010.
Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS – A FORTRAN program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability analysis, vers. 2.0, US Geol. Survey Open-File Rep. 2008-1159, 75 pp., US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1159/ (last access: February 2018), 2008.
Bennett, N. D., Croke, B. F. W., Guariso, G., Guillaume, J. H. A., Hamilton, S. H., Jakeman, A. J., Marsilli-Libelli, S., Newham, L. T. H., Norton, J. P., Perrin, C., Pierce, S. A., Robson, B., Seppelt, R., Voinov, A. A., Fath, B. D., and Andreassian, V.: Characterising performance of environmental models, Environ. Model. Softw., 40, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011, 2013.
Brand, E. W., Premchitt, J., and Phillipson, H. B. Relationship Between Rainfall and Landslides in Hong Kong, in: Proc. 4th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Vol. 1, Toronto, 377–384, 1984.
Briggs, K. M., Smethurst, J. A., Powrie, W., and O'Brien, A. S.: The influence of tree root water uptake on the long term hydrology of a clay fill railway embankment, Transport. Geotech., 9, 31–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trgeo.2016.06.001, 2016.
Capparelli, G. and Versace, P.: FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall, Landslides, 8, 67–79, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0228-6, 2011.
Casadei, M., Dietrich, W. E., and Miller, N. L.: Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil-mantled landscapes, Earth Surf. Process. Land., 28, 925–950, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.470, 2003.
Chatterjea, K.: Observations on the Fluvial and Slope Processes in Singapore and their Impact on the Urban Environment, PhD Thesis, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 1989.
Cui, Y. J., Lu, Y. F., Delage, P., and Riffard, M.: Field simulation of in-situ water content and temperature changes due to ground-atmospheric conditions, Géotechnique, 55, 557–567, https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.2005.55.7.557, 2005.
Damiano, E., Greco, R., Guida, A., Olivares, L., and Picarelli, L.: Investigation on rainwater infiltration into layered shallow covers in pyroclastic soils and its effect on slope stability, Eng. Geol., 220, 208–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.02.006, 2017.
de Riso, R., Budetta, P., Calcaterra, D., and Santo, A.: Riflessioni sul comportamento delle colate rapide non incanalate della Campania, alla luce delle conoscenze pregresse, in: Proceedings National Conference on “La Mitigazione del Rischio da Colate di Fango”, 2–3 May 2005, Napoli, 81–92, 2007.
DigitalGlobe: http://www.earth.google.com, last access: 26 April 2012.
Ebel, B. A., Loague, K., and Borja, R. I.: The impacts of hysteresis on variably saturated hydrologic response and slope failure, Environ. Earth Sci., 61, 1215–1225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0445-2, 2010.
Endrizzi, S., Gruber, S., Dall'Amico, M., and Rigon, R.: GEOtop 2.0: simulating the combined energy and water balance at and below the land surface accounting for soil freezing, snow cover and terrain effects, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2831–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2831-2014, 2014.
Formetta, G., Rago, V., Capparelli, G., Rigon, R., Muto, F., and Versace, P.: Integrated Physically based system for modeling landslide susceptibility, Proced. Earth Planet. Sci., 9, 74–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2014.06.006, 2014.
Formetta, G., Simoni, S., Godt, J. W., Lu, N., and Rigon, R.: Geomorphological control on variably saturated hillslope hydrology and slope instability, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4590–4607, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017626, 2016.
Fredlund, D. G., Rahardjo, H., and Fredlund, M. D.: Unsaturated soil mechanics in engineering practice, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, 2012.
Geo-Slope: Vadose Zone Modeling with VADOSE/W 2007: An Engineering Methodology, 3rd Edn., Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 344 pp., 2008.
Gitirana Jr., G. F. N.: Weather-Related Geo-Hazard Assessment Model for Railway Embankment Stability, PhD Thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 411 pp., 2005.
Greco, R., Comegna, L., Damiano, E., Guida, A., Olivares, L., and Picarelli, L.: Hydrological modelling of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits from field monitoring data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4001–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4001-2013, 2013.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour. Res., 36, 1897–1910, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090, 2000.
Krause, P., Boyle, D. P., and Bäse, F.: Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment, Adv. Geosci., 5, 89–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005, 2005.
Milly, P. C. D.: Moisture and heat transport in hysteretic, inhomogeneous porous media: A matric head based formulation and a numerical model, Water Resour. Res., 18, 489–498, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i003p00489, 1982.
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A physically based model for the topographic control of shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979, 1994.
Morgenstern, N. R.: The Evaluation of Slope Stability A 25 Year Perspective, in: Proc. Stability and Performance of Slopes and Embankments II, Vol. 1, Berkeley, California, 1–26, 1992.
Mualem, Y.: A new model for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media, Water Resour. Res., 12, 513–522, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR012i003p00513, 1976.
Napolitano, E., Fusco, F., Baum, R. L., Godt, J. W., and De Vita, P.: Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy), Landslides, 13, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0647-5, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models, Part I: a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nicotera, M. V., Papa, R., and Urciuoli, G.: An experimental technique for determining the hydraulic properties of unsaturated pyroclastic soils, Geotech. Test. J., 33, 263–285, https://doi.org/10.1520/GTJ102769, 2010.
Pagano, L., Rianna, G., Zingariello, M. C., Urciuoli, G., and Vinale, F.: An early warning system to predict flowslides in pyroclastic deposits, in: Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, 30 June–4 July 2008, Xi'an, China, Taylor & Francis Group, London, 1259–1264, 2008a.
Pagano, L., Zingariello, M. C., and Vinale, F.: A large physical model to simulate flowslides in pyroclastic soils, in: Unsaturated Soils: Advances in Geo-Engineering – Proceedings of the 1st European Conference on Unsaturated Soils, E-UNSAT 2008, 2–4 July 2008, Durham, UK, 111–115, 2008b.
Pagano, L., Picarelli, L., Rianna, G., and Urciuoli, G.: A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils, Landslides, 7, 273–289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0216-x, 2010.
Pagano, L., Reder, A., and Rianna, G.: Processi di infiltrazione ed evaporazione nei terreni piroclastici illustrati attraverso la selezione di alcuni eventi rappresentativi, Rivista Italiana Geotecnica, 1, 62–76, 2014.
Papa, R., Pirone, M., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: Meccanismi di innesco di colate di fango in piroclastiti parzialmente sature, in: Proc. 1st Italian Workshop on Landslides, Napoli, edited by: Picarelli, L., Tommasi, P., Urciuoli, G., and Versace, P., 2, 91–106, 2009.
Pirone, M.: Analysis of slope failure mechanism in unsaturated pyroclastic soils, based on testing site monitoring PhD thesis, University of Naples, Federico II, Naples, Italy, 2009.
Pirone, M., Papa, R., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: Soil water balance in an unsaturated pyroclastic slope for evaluation of soil hydraulic behaviour and boundary conditions, J. Hydrol., 528, 63–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.005, 2015a.
Pirone, M., Papa, R., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: In situ monitoring of the groundwater field in an unsaturated pyroclastic slope for slope stability evaluation, Landslides, 12, 259–276, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0483-z, 2015b.
Pirone, M., Rianna, G., Reder, A., Pagano, L., and Urciuoli, G.: Two Applications of Soil Water Balance in Unsaturated Pyroclastic Soils, Proced. Eng., 158, 188–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.08.427, 2016.
Rahardjo, H., Li, X. W., Toll, G., and Leong, C.: The effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability, Geotech. Geol. Eng., 19, 371–399, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013129725263, 2001.
Rahimi, A., Rahardjo, H., and Leong, C.: Effect of Antecedent Rainfall Patterns on Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 137, 483–491, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000451, 2011.
Reder, A., Pagano, L., Picarelli, L., and Rianna, G.: The role of the lowermost boundary conditions in the hydrological response of shallow sloping covers, Landslides, 14, 861–873, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0753-z, 2017.
Rianna, G., Pagano, L., and Urciuoli, G.: Rainfall patterns triggering shallow flowslides in pyroclastic soils, Eng. Geol., 174, 22–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.03.004, 2014a.
Rianna, G., Pagano, L., and Urciuoli G.: Investigation of soil-atmosphere interaction in pyroclastic soils, J. Hydrol., 510, 480–492, 2014b.
Rianna, G., Reder, A., Pagano, L., and Comegna, L.: Hysteresis processes and effective rainfall histories, in: Advances in Landslide Understanding, edited by: Alonso, E. and Pinyol, N., International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain, 60–63, 2017.
Richards, L. A.: Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums, J. Appl. Phys., 1, 318–333, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1745010, 1931.
Rosso, R., Rulli, M. C., and Vannucchi, G.: A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 42, W06410, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004369, 2006.
Shiozawa, S. and Campbell, G. S.: Soil thermal conductivity, Remote Sens. Rev., 5, 301–310, https://doi.org/10.1080/02757259009532137, 1990.
Šimunek, J., Van Genuchten, M. T., and Šejna, M.: The HYDRUS software package for simulating two-and three-dimensional movement of water, heat, and multiple solutes in variably-saturated media, Technical manual, version 1, PC Progress, Prague, Czech Republic, 241 pp., 2006.
Song, W. K., Cui, Y. J., Tang, A. M., Ding, W. Q., and Wang, Q.: Experimental study on water evaporation from compacted clay using environmental chamber, Can. Geotech. J., 53, 1293–1304, https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2015-0415, 2016.
Tetens, O.: Uber einige meteorologische begriffe, Z. Geophys., 297–309, 1930.
van Genuchten, M. T.: A closed form equation for predictiong the hydraulic conductivity, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 44, 892–898, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1980.03615995004400050002x, 1980.
Wilson, G. W., Fredlund, D. G., and Barbour, S. L.: Coupled soil–atmosphere modeling for soil evaporation, Can. Geotech. J., 31, 151–161, https://doi.org/10.1139/t94-021, 1994.
Wilson, G. W., Fredlund, D. G., and Barbour, S. L.: The effect of soil suction on evaporative fluxes from soil surfaces, Can. Geotech. J., 34, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.1139/t98-034, 1997.
Short summary
Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region caused many deaths and huge costs. The development of early warning systems represents a key issue for the area. However, the features of such soils make the development of reliable predictive tools challenging. The relevance of accounting for evaporative losses in slope hydrological balance regulating safety conditions is here discussed. To that end, the 2005 landslide in Nocera Inferiore is used as test case.
Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region caused many deaths and huge...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint