Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-613-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-613-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Physically based approaches incorporating evaporation for early warning predictions of rainfall-induced landslides
Alfredo Reder
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy
Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, CMCC Foundation, 81043 Capua, Italy
Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, CMCC Foundation, 81043 Capua, Italy
Luca Pagano
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Marco Uzielli, Guido Rianna, Fabio Ciervo, Paola Mercogliano, and Unni K. Eidsvig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3019–3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide hazard at a given location may change over time due to climate change, since the frequency and intensity of landslide-triggering factors such as rainfall can vary significantly. It is important for stakeholders and decision-makers to predict trends in landslide hazard to mitigate the risk of losing lives and material assets. This study contributes an innovative method for the prediction of future variations of rainfall-induced landslides and shows its application to an Italian site.
Roberto Greco and Luca Pagano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2213–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2213-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on the main features characterizing predictive models working in early warning systems (EWS), by discussing their aims, the evolution stage of the phenomenon where they should be incardinated, and their architecture, regardless of the specific application field. With reference to flow-like landslide and earth flows, some alternative approaches to the development of the predictive tool and to its implementation in an EWS are described.
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent
How volcanic stratigraphy constrains headscarp collapse scenarios: the Samperre cliff case study (Martinique island, Lesser Antilles)
Landslide susceptibility assessment in the rocky coast subsystem of Essaouira, Morocco
Landsifier v1.0: a Python library to estimate likely triggers of mapped landslides
Timing landslide and flash flood events from SAR satellite: a regionally applicable methodology illustrated in African cloud-covered tropical environments
Potential of satellite-derived hydro-meteorological information for landslide initiation thresholds in Rwanda
Instantaneous LEM back-analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence
Earthquake-induced landslides in Haiti: analysis of seismotectonic and possible climatic influences
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock–ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya
Physically based modeling of co-seismic landslide, debris flow, and flood cascade
Finite-hillslope analysis of landslides triggered by excess pore water pressure: the roles of atmospheric pressure and rainfall infiltration during typhoons
Estimating global landslide susceptibility and its uncertainty through ensemble modeling
Terrain visibility impact on the preparation of landslide inventories: a practical example in Darjeeling district (India)
Using Sentinel-1 radar amplitude time series to constrain the timings of individual landslides: a step towards understanding the controls on monsoon-triggered landsliding
Introducing SlideforMAP: a probabilistic finite slope approach for modelling shallow-landslide probability in forested situations
Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of short-lived debris flows in arid regions
What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand
Geographic information system models with fuzzy logic for susceptibility maps of debris flow using multiple types of parameters: a case study in Pinggu District of Beijing, China
Spatial assessment of probable recharge areas – investigating the hydrogeological controls of an active deep-seated gravitational slope deformation
Rainfall-induced landslide early warning system based on corrected mesoscale numerical models: an application for the southern Andes
Quantification of meteorological conditions for rockfall triggers in Germany
Debris flow velocity and volume estimations based on seismic data
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Integration of observed and model-derived groundwater levels in landslide threshold models in Rwanda
Landslides caught on seismic networks and satellite radars
Variable hydrograph inputs for a numerical debris-flow runout model
Assessing the importance of conditioning factor selection in landslide susceptibility for the province of Belluno (region of Veneto, northeastern Italy)
Brief communication: Introducing rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering based on artificial neural networks
Insights from the topographic characteristics of a large global catalog of rainfall-induced landslide event inventories
Generating landslide density heatmaps for rapid detection using open-access satellite radar data in Google Earth Engine
Multiscale effects caused by the fracturing and fragmentation of rock blocks during rock mass movement: implications for rock avalanche propagation
Rapid assessment of abrupt urban mega-gully and landslide events with structure-from-motion photogrammetric techniques validates link to water resources infrastructure failures in an urban periphery
Automated determination of landslide locations after large trigger events: advantages and disadvantages compared to manual mapping
Evaluation of filtering methods for use on high-frequency measurements of landslide displacements
A modeling methodology to study the tributary-junction alluvial fan connectivity during a debris flow event
Brief communication: The role of geophysical imaging in local landslide early warning systems
Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania
Main Ethiopian Rift landslides formed in contrasting geological settings and climatic conditions
Investigating causal factors of shallow landslides in grassland regions of Switzerland
Debris flow event on Osorno volcano, Chile, during summer 2017: new interpretations for chain processes in the southern Andes
Integrating empirical models and satellite radar can improve landslide detection for emergency response
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1297, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flow are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, which are transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height is difficult. We present a protocol to analyze debris flow data and results on the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts for the design of models.
Fabian Walter, Elias Hodel, Erik S. Mannerfelt, Kristen Cook, Michael Dietze, Livia Estermann, Michaela Wenner, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Fengler, Lukas Hammerschmidt, Flavia Hänsli, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4011–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are dangerous sediment–water mixtures in steep terrain. Their formation takes place in poorly accessible terrain where instrumentation cannot be installed. Here we propose to monitor such source terrain with an autonomous drone for mapping sediments which were left behind by debris flows or may contribute to future events. Short flight intervals elucidate changes of such sediments, providing important information for landscape evolution and the likelihood of future debris flows.
Marc Peruzzetto, Yoann Legendre, Aude Nachbaur, Thomas J. B. Dewez, Yannick Thiery, Clara Levy, and Benoit Vittecoq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3973–3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic edifices result from successive construction and dismantling phases. Thus, the geological units forming volcanoes display complex geometries. We show that such geometries can be reconstructed thanks to aerial views, topographic surveys and photogrammetric models. In our case study of the Samperre cliff (Martinique, Lesser Antilles), it allows us to link destabilizations from a rocky cliff to the existence of a filled paleo-valley and estimate a potentially unstable volume.
Abdellah Khouz, Jorge Trindade, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Fatima El Bchari, Blaid Bougadir, Ricardo A. C. Garcia, and Mourad Jadoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3793–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this study was to assess the landslide susceptibility of the rocky coast of Essaouira using the information value model. The resulting susceptibility maps could be used for both environmental protection and general planning of future development activities.
Kamal Rana, Nishant Malik, and Ugur Ozturk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3751–3764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3751-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The landslide hazard models assist in mitigating losses due to landslides. However, these models depend on landslide databases, which often have missing triggering information, rendering these databases unusable for landslide hazard models. In this work, we developed a Python library, Landsifier, consisting of three different methods to identify the triggers of landslides. These methods can classify landslide triggers with high accuracy using only a landslide polygon shapefile as an input.
Axel A. J. Deijns, Olivier Dewitte, Wim Thiery, Nicolas d'Oreye, Jean-Philippe Malet, and François Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3679–3700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3679-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides and flash floods are rainfall-induced processes that often co-occur and interact, generally very quickly. In mountainous cloud-covered environments, determining when these processes occur remains challenging. We propose a regional methodology using open-access satellite radar images that allow for the timing of landslide and flash floods events, in the contrasting landscapes of tropical Africa, with an accuracy of up to a few days. The methodology shows potential for transferability.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-256, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazard on r transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anika Braun, Sophia Ulysse, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3361–3384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new landslide inventory for the 2021, M 7.2, Haiti, earthquake. We compare characteristics of this inventory with those of the 2010 seismically induced landslides, highlighting the much larger total area of 2021 landslides. This fact could be related to the larger earthquake magnitude in 2021, to the more central location of the fault segment ruptured in 2021 with respect to coastal zones, and/or to possible climatic preconditioning of slope failures in the 2021 affected area.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Bastian van den Bout, Chenxiao Tang, Cees van Westen, and Victor Jetten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3183–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3183-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, and flooding do not always occur as stand-alone events. After the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a co-seismic landslide blocked a stream in Hongchun. Two years later, a debris flow breached the material, blocked the Min River, and resulted in flooding of a small town. We developed a multi-process model that captures the full cascade. Despite input and process uncertainties, probability of flooding was high due to topography and trigger intensities.
Lucas Pelascini, Philippe Steer, Maxime Mouyen, and Laurent Longuevergne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3125–3141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides represent a major natural hazard and are often triggered by typhoons. We present a new 2D model computing the respective role of rainfall infiltration, atmospheric depression and groundwater in slope stability during typhoons. The results show rainfall is the strongest factor of destabilisation. However, if the slope is fully saturated, near the toe of the slope or during the wet season, rainfall infiltration is limited and atmospheric pressure change can become the dominant factor.
Anne Felsberg, Jean Poesen, Michel Bechtold, Matthias Vanmaercke, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3063–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we assessed global landslide susceptibility at the coarse 36 km spatial resolution of global satellite soil moisture observations to prepare for a subsequent combination of the two. Specifically, we focus therefore on the susceptibility of hydrologically triggered landslides. We introduce ensemble techniques, common in, for example, meteorology but not yet in the landslide community, to retrieve reliable estimates of the total prediction uncertainty.
Txomin Bornaetxea, Ivan Marchesini, Sumit Kumar, Rabisankar Karmakar, and Alessandro Mondini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2929–2941, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2929-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One cannot know if there is a landslide or not in an area that one has not observed. This is an obvious statement, but when landslide inventories are obtained by field observation, this fact is seldom taken into account. Since fieldwork campaigns are often done following the roads, we present a methodology to estimate the visibility of the terrain from the roads, and we demonstrate that fieldwork-based inventories are underestimating landslide density in less visible areas.
Katy Burrows, Odin Marc, and Dominique Remy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The locations of triggered landslides following a rainfall event can be identified in optical satellite images. However cloud cover associated with the rainfall means that these images cannot be used to identify landslide timing. Timings of landslides triggered during long rainfall events are often unknown. Here we present methods of using Sentinel-1 satellite radar data, acquired every 12 d globally in all weather conditions, to better constrain the timings of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Feiko Bernard van Zadelhoff, Adel Albaba, Denis Cohen, Chris Phillips, Bettina Schaefli, Luuk Dorren, and Massimiliano Schwarz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2611–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2611-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Shallow landslides pose a risk to people, property and infrastructure. Assessment of this hazard and the impact of protective measures can reduce losses. We developed a model (SlideforMAP) that can assess the shallow-landslide risk on a regional scale for specific rainfall events. Trees are an effective and cheap protective measure on a regional scale. Our model can assess their hazard reduction down to the individual tree level.
Chuxuan Li, Alexander L. Handwerger, Jiali Wang, Wei Yu, Xiang Li, Noah J. Finnegan, Yingying Xie, Giuseppe Buscarnera, and Daniel E. Horton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2317–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2317-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In January 2021 a storm triggered numerous debris flows in a wildfire burn scar in California. We use a hydrologic model to assess debris flow susceptibility in pre-fire and postfire scenarios. Compared to pre-fire conditions, postfire conditions yield dramatic increases in peak water discharge, substantially increasing debris flow susceptibility. Our work highlights the hydrologic model's utility in investigating and potentially forecasting postfire debris flows at regional scales.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-173, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings’ properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effect of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve the understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-199, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds that trigger shallow landslides in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity-duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work, is demonstrate the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional level.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-184, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructures and population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Saskia de Vilder, Chris Massey, Biljana Lukovic, Tony Taig, and Regine Morgenstern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2289–2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study calculates the fatality risk posed by landslides while visiting Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand, for nine different scenarios, where the variables of the risk equation were adjusted to determine the range in risk values and associated uncertainty. The results show that it is important to consider variable inputs that change through time, such as the increasing probability of an earthquake and the impact of climate change on landslide characteristics.
Yiwei Zhang, Jianping Chen, Qing Wang, Chun Tan, Yongchao Li, Xiaohui Sun, and Yang Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2239–2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2239-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2239-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The disaster prevention and mitigation of debris flow is a very important scientific problem. Our model is based on geographic information system (GIS), combined with grey relational, data-driven and fuzzy logic methods. Through our results, we believe that the streamlining of factors and scientific classification should attract attention from other researchers to optimize a model. We also propose a good perspective to make better use of the watershed feature parameters.
Jan Pfeiffer, Thomas Zieher, Jan Schmieder, Thom Bogaard, Martin Rutzinger, and Christoph Spötl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2219–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The activity of slow-moving deep-seated landslides is commonly governed by pore pressure variations within the shear zone. Groundwater recharge as a consequence of precipitation therefore is a process regulating the activity of landslides. In this context, we present a highly automated geo-statistical approach to spatially assess groundwater recharge controlling the velocity of a deep-seated landslide in Tyrol, Austria.
Ivo Fustos-Toribio, Nataly Manque-Roa, Daniel Vásquez Antipan, Mauricio Hermosilla Sotomayor, and Viviana Letelier Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2169–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2169-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop for the first time a rainfall-induced landslide early warning system for the south of Chile. We used forecast precipitation values at different scales using mesoscale models to evaluate the probability of landslides using statistical models. We showed the feasibility of implementing these models in future, supporting stakeholders and decision-makers.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Andreas Schimmel, Velio Coviello, and Francesco Comiti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1955–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of debris flow velocity and volume is a fundamental task for the development of early warning systems and other mitigation measures. This work provides a first approach for estimating the velocity and the total volume of debris flows based on the seismic signal detected with simple, low-cost geophones installed along the debris flow channel. The developed method was applied to seismic data collected at three test sites in the Alps: Gadria and Cancia (IT) and Lattenbach (AT).
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark M. A. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-88, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018 and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Andrea Manconi, Alessandro C. Mondini, and the AlpArray working group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1655–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1655-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Information on when, where, and how landslide events occur is the key to building complete catalogues and performing accurate hazard assessments. Here we show a procedure that allows us to benefit from the increased density of seismic sensors installed on ground for earthquake monitoring and from the unprecedented availability of satellite radar data. We show how the procedure works on a recent sequence of landslides that occurred at Piz Cengalo (Swiss Alps) in 2017.
Andrew Mitchell, Sophia Zubrycky, Scott McDougall, Jordan Aaron, Mylène Jacquemart, Johannes Hübl, Roland Kaitna, and Christoph Graf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1627–1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are complex, surging movements of sediment and water. Discharge observations from well-studied debris-flow channels were used as inputs for a numerical modelling study of the downstream effects of chaotic inflows. The results show that downstream impacts are sensitive to inflow conditions. Inflow conditions for predictive modelling are highly uncertain, and our method provides a means to estimate the potential variability in future events.
Sansar Raj Meena, Silvia Puliero, Kushanav Bhuyan, Mario Floris, and Filippo Catani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1395–1417, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigated the importance of the conditioning factors in predicting landslide occurrences using the mentioned models. In this paper, we evaluated the importance of the conditioning factors (features) in the overall prediction capabilities of the statistical and machine learning algorithms.
Pierpaolo Distefano, David J. Peres, Pietro Scandura, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1151–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the communication, we introduce the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for improving the performance of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning. Results show how ANNs using rainfall event duration and mean intensity perform significantly better than a classical power law based on the same variables. Adding peak rainfall intensity as input to the ANN improves performance even more. This further demonstrates the potentialities of the proposed machine learning approach.
Robert Emberson, Dalia B. Kirschbaum, Pukar Amatya, Hakan Tanyas, and Odin Marc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1129–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding where landslides occur in mountainous areas is critical to support hazard analysis as well as understand landscape evolution. In this study, we present a large compilation of inventories of landslides triggered by rainfall, including several that are described here for the first time. We analyze the topographic characteristics of the landslides, finding consistent relationships for landslide source and deposition areas, despite differences in the inventories' locations.
Alexander L. Handwerger, Mong-Han Huang, Shannan Y. Jones, Pukar Amatya, Hannah R. Kerner, and Dalia B. Kirschbaum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 753–773, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-753-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rapid detection of landslides is critical for emergency response and disaster mitigation. Here we develop a global landslide detection tool in Google Earth Engine that uses satellite radar data to measure changes in the ground surface properties. We find that we can detect areas with high landslide density within days of a triggering event. Our approach allows the broader hazard community to utilize these state-of-the-art data for improved situational awareness of landslide hazards.
Qiwen Lin, Yufeng Wang, Yu Xie, Qiangong Cheng, and Kaifeng Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 639–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-639-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fracturing and fragmentation of rock blocks are important and universal phenomena during the movement of rock avalanches (large and long-run-out rockslide-debris avalanches). The movement of a fragmenting rock block is simulated by the discrete element method, aiming to quantify the fracturing and fragmentation effect of the block in propagation. The fracturing and fragmentation processes and their influences on energy transformation in the system are described in detail.
Napoleon Gudino-Elizondo, Matthew W. Brand, Trent W. Biggs, Alejandro Hinojosa-Corona, Álvaro Gómez-Gutiérrez, Eddy Langendoen, Ronald Bingner, Yongping Yuan, and Brett F. Sanders
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 523–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-523-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-523-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mass movement hazards in the form of gullies and landslides pose significant risks in urbanizing areas yet are poorly documented. This paper presents observations and modeling of mass movement events over a 5-year period in Tijuana, Mexico. Three major events were observed, and all were linked to water resources infrastructure failures (WRIFs), namely leaks and breaks in water supply pipes. Modeling shows that WRIF-based erosion was also a non-negligible contributor to the total sediment budget.
David G. Milledge, Dino G. Bellugi, Jack Watt, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 481–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-481-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes can trigger thousands of landslides, causing severe and widespread damage. Efforts to understand what controls these landslides rely heavily on costly and time-consuming manual mapping from satellite imagery. We developed a new method that automatically detects landslides triggered by earthquakes using thousands of free satellite images. We found that in the majority of cases, it was as skilful at identifying the locations of landslides as the manual maps that we tested it against.
Sohrab Sharifi, Michael T. Hendry, Renato Macciotta, and Trevor Evans
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 411–430, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-411-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study is devoted to comparing the effectiveness of three different filters for noise reduction of instruments. It was observed that the Savitzky–Golay and Gaussian-weighted moving average filters outperform the simple moving average. Application of these two filters in real-time landslide monitoring leads to timely detection of acceleration moment and better preservation of information regarding displacement and velocity.
Alex Garcés, Gerardo Zegers, Albert Cabré, Germán Aguilar, Aldo Tamburrino, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 377–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a workflow to model the response of an alluvial fan located in the Atacama Desert during an extreme storm event. For this alluvial fan, five different deposits were identified and associated with different debris flow surges. Using a commercial software program, our workflow concatenates these surges into one model. This study depicts the significance of the mechanical classification of debris flows to reproduce how an alluvial fan controls the tributary–river junction connectivity.
Jim S. Whiteley, Arnaud Watlet, J. Michael Kendall, and Jonathan E. Chambers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3863–3871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3863-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3863-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work summarises the contribution of geophysical imaging methods to establishing and operating local landslide early warning systems, demonstrated through a conceptual framework. We identify developments in geophysical monitoring equipment, the spatiotemporal resolutions of these approaches and methods to translate geophysical to geotechnical information as the primary benefits that geophysics brings to slope-scale early warning.
Vipin Kumar, Léna Cauchie, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Mihai Micu, and Hans-Balder Havenith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3767–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3767-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3767-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The SE Carpathians belong to one of the most active seismic regions of Europe. In recent decades, extreme rainfall events have also been common. These natural processes result in frequent landslides, particularly of a debris flow type. Despite such regimes, the region has been little explored to understand the response of the landslides in seismic and rainfall conditions. This study attempts to fill this gap by evaluating landslide responses under seismic and extreme-rainfall regimes.
Karel Martínek, Kryštof Verner, Tomáš Hroch, Leta A. Megerssa, Veronika Kopačková, David Buriánek, Ameha Muluneh, Radka Kalinová, Miheret Yakob, and Muluken Kassa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3465–3487, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study combines field geological and geohazard mapping with remote sensing data. Geostatistical analysis evaluated precipitation, land use, vegetation density, rock mass strength, and tectonics. Contrasting tectonic and climatic setting of the Main Ethiopian Rift and uplifted Ethiopian Plateau have major impacts on the distribution of landslides.
Lauren Zweifel, Maxim Samarin, Katrin Meusburger, and Christine Alewell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3421-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3421-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Mountainous grassland areas can be severely affected by soil erosion, such as by shallow landslides. With an automated mapping approach we are able to locate shallow-landslide sites on aerial images for 10 different study sites across Swiss mountain regions covering a total of 315 km2. Using a statistical model we identify important explanatory variables for shallow-landslide occurrence for the individual sites as well as across all regions, which highlight slope, aspect and terrain roughness.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Katy Burrows, David Milledge, Richard J. Walters, and Dino Bellugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2993–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2993-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2993-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When cloud cover obscures optical satellite imagery, there are two options remaining for generating information on earthquake-triggered landslide locations: (1) models which predict landslide locations based on, e.g., slope and ground shaking data and (2) satellite radar data, which penetrates cloud cover and is sensitive to landslides. Here we show that the two approaches can be combined to give a more consistent and more accurate model of landslide locations after an earthquake.
Cited articles
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., Smith, M., and Ab, W.: Crop evapotranspiration – Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/X0490E00.htm (last access: February 2018), 1998.
Allen, R. G., Pruitt, W. O., Raes, D., Smith, M., and Pereira, L. S.: Estimating evaporation from bare soil and the crop coefficient for the initial period using common soils information, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 131, 14–23, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2005)131:1(14), 2005.
Al Qadad, A., Shahrour, I., and Rouainia, M.: Influence of the soil–atmosphere exchange on the hydric profile induced in soil-structure system, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2039–2049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2039-2012, 2012.
An, N., Hemmati, S., and Cui, Y. J.: Numerical analysis of soil volumetric water content and temperature variations in an embankment due to soil–atmosphere interaction, Comput. Geotech., 83, 40–51, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2016.10.010, 2017.
Arnone, E., Noto, L. V., Lepore, C., and Bras, R. L.: Physically-based and distributed approach to analyze rainfall-triggered landslides at watershed scale, Geomorphology, 133, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.019, 2011.
Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259–272, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0177-0, 2010.
Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS – A FORTRAN program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability analysis, vers. 2.0, US Geol. Survey Open-File Rep. 2008-1159, 75 pp., US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1159/ (last access: February 2018), 2008.
Bennett, N. D., Croke, B. F. W., Guariso, G., Guillaume, J. H. A., Hamilton, S. H., Jakeman, A. J., Marsilli-Libelli, S., Newham, L. T. H., Norton, J. P., Perrin, C., Pierce, S. A., Robson, B., Seppelt, R., Voinov, A. A., Fath, B. D., and Andreassian, V.: Characterising performance of environmental models, Environ. Model. Softw., 40, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011, 2013.
Brand, E. W., Premchitt, J., and Phillipson, H. B. Relationship Between Rainfall and Landslides in Hong Kong, in: Proc. 4th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Vol. 1, Toronto, 377–384, 1984.
Briggs, K. M., Smethurst, J. A., Powrie, W., and O'Brien, A. S.: The influence of tree root water uptake on the long term hydrology of a clay fill railway embankment, Transport. Geotech., 9, 31–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trgeo.2016.06.001, 2016.
Capparelli, G. and Versace, P.: FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall, Landslides, 8, 67–79, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0228-6, 2011.
Casadei, M., Dietrich, W. E., and Miller, N. L.: Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil-mantled landscapes, Earth Surf. Process. Land., 28, 925–950, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.470, 2003.
Chatterjea, K.: Observations on the Fluvial and Slope Processes in Singapore and their Impact on the Urban Environment, PhD Thesis, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 1989.
Cui, Y. J., Lu, Y. F., Delage, P., and Riffard, M.: Field simulation of in-situ water content and temperature changes due to ground-atmospheric conditions, Géotechnique, 55, 557–567, https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.2005.55.7.557, 2005.
Damiano, E., Greco, R., Guida, A., Olivares, L., and Picarelli, L.: Investigation on rainwater infiltration into layered shallow covers in pyroclastic soils and its effect on slope stability, Eng. Geol., 220, 208–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.02.006, 2017.
de Riso, R., Budetta, P., Calcaterra, D., and Santo, A.: Riflessioni sul comportamento delle colate rapide non incanalate della Campania, alla luce delle conoscenze pregresse, in: Proceedings National Conference on “La Mitigazione del Rischio da Colate di Fango”, 2–3 May 2005, Napoli, 81–92, 2007.
DigitalGlobe: http://www.earth.google.com, last access: 26 April 2012.
Ebel, B. A., Loague, K., and Borja, R. I.: The impacts of hysteresis on variably saturated hydrologic response and slope failure, Environ. Earth Sci., 61, 1215–1225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0445-2, 2010.
Endrizzi, S., Gruber, S., Dall'Amico, M., and Rigon, R.: GEOtop 2.0: simulating the combined energy and water balance at and below the land surface accounting for soil freezing, snow cover and terrain effects, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2831–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2831-2014, 2014.
Formetta, G., Rago, V., Capparelli, G., Rigon, R., Muto, F., and Versace, P.: Integrated Physically based system for modeling landslide susceptibility, Proced. Earth Planet. Sci., 9, 74–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2014.06.006, 2014.
Formetta, G., Simoni, S., Godt, J. W., Lu, N., and Rigon, R.: Geomorphological control on variably saturated hillslope hydrology and slope instability, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4590–4607, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017626, 2016.
Fredlund, D. G., Rahardjo, H., and Fredlund, M. D.: Unsaturated soil mechanics in engineering practice, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, 2012.
Geo-Slope: Vadose Zone Modeling with VADOSE/W 2007: An Engineering Methodology, 3rd Edn., Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 344 pp., 2008.
Gitirana Jr., G. F. N.: Weather-Related Geo-Hazard Assessment Model for Railway Embankment Stability, PhD Thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 411 pp., 2005.
Greco, R., Comegna, L., Damiano, E., Guida, A., Olivares, L., and Picarelli, L.: Hydrological modelling of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits from field monitoring data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4001–4013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4001-2013, 2013.
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009.
Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour. Res., 36, 1897–1910, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090, 2000.
Krause, P., Boyle, D. P., and Bäse, F.: Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment, Adv. Geosci., 5, 89–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005, 2005.
Milly, P. C. D.: Moisture and heat transport in hysteretic, inhomogeneous porous media: A matric head based formulation and a numerical model, Water Resour. Res., 18, 489–498, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i003p00489, 1982.
Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A physically based model for the topographic control of shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.1029/93WR02979, 1994.
Morgenstern, N. R.: The Evaluation of Slope Stability A 25 Year Perspective, in: Proc. Stability and Performance of Slopes and Embankments II, Vol. 1, Berkeley, California, 1–26, 1992.
Mualem, Y.: A new model for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media, Water Resour. Res., 12, 513–522, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR012i003p00513, 1976.
Napolitano, E., Fusco, F., Baum, R. L., Godt, J. W., and De Vita, P.: Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy), Landslides, 13, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0647-5, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models, Part I: a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Nicotera, M. V., Papa, R., and Urciuoli, G.: An experimental technique for determining the hydraulic properties of unsaturated pyroclastic soils, Geotech. Test. J., 33, 263–285, https://doi.org/10.1520/GTJ102769, 2010.
Pagano, L., Rianna, G., Zingariello, M. C., Urciuoli, G., and Vinale, F.: An early warning system to predict flowslides in pyroclastic deposits, in: Proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, 30 June–4 July 2008, Xi'an, China, Taylor & Francis Group, London, 1259–1264, 2008a.
Pagano, L., Zingariello, M. C., and Vinale, F.: A large physical model to simulate flowslides in pyroclastic soils, in: Unsaturated Soils: Advances in Geo-Engineering – Proceedings of the 1st European Conference on Unsaturated Soils, E-UNSAT 2008, 2–4 July 2008, Durham, UK, 111–115, 2008b.
Pagano, L., Picarelli, L., Rianna, G., and Urciuoli, G.: A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils, Landslides, 7, 273–289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0216-x, 2010.
Pagano, L., Reder, A., and Rianna, G.: Processi di infiltrazione ed evaporazione nei terreni piroclastici illustrati attraverso la selezione di alcuni eventi rappresentativi, Rivista Italiana Geotecnica, 1, 62–76, 2014.
Papa, R., Pirone, M., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: Meccanismi di innesco di colate di fango in piroclastiti parzialmente sature, in: Proc. 1st Italian Workshop on Landslides, Napoli, edited by: Picarelli, L., Tommasi, P., Urciuoli, G., and Versace, P., 2, 91–106, 2009.
Pirone, M.: Analysis of slope failure mechanism in unsaturated pyroclastic soils, based on testing site monitoring PhD thesis, University of Naples, Federico II, Naples, Italy, 2009.
Pirone, M., Papa, R., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: Soil water balance in an unsaturated pyroclastic slope for evaluation of soil hydraulic behaviour and boundary conditions, J. Hydrol., 528, 63–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.005, 2015a.
Pirone, M., Papa, R., Nicotera, M. V., and Urciuoli, G.: In situ monitoring of the groundwater field in an unsaturated pyroclastic slope for slope stability evaluation, Landslides, 12, 259–276, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0483-z, 2015b.
Pirone, M., Rianna, G., Reder, A., Pagano, L., and Urciuoli, G.: Two Applications of Soil Water Balance in Unsaturated Pyroclastic Soils, Proced. Eng., 158, 188–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.08.427, 2016.
Rahardjo, H., Li, X. W., Toll, G., and Leong, C.: The effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability, Geotech. Geol. Eng., 19, 371–399, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013129725263, 2001.
Rahimi, A., Rahardjo, H., and Leong, C.: Effect of Antecedent Rainfall Patterns on Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 137, 483–491, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000451, 2011.
Reder, A., Pagano, L., Picarelli, L., and Rianna, G.: The role of the lowermost boundary conditions in the hydrological response of shallow sloping covers, Landslides, 14, 861–873, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0753-z, 2017.
Rianna, G., Pagano, L., and Urciuoli, G.: Rainfall patterns triggering shallow flowslides in pyroclastic soils, Eng. Geol., 174, 22–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.03.004, 2014a.
Rianna, G., Pagano, L., and Urciuoli G.: Investigation of soil-atmosphere interaction in pyroclastic soils, J. Hydrol., 510, 480–492, 2014b.
Rianna, G., Reder, A., Pagano, L., and Comegna, L.: Hysteresis processes and effective rainfall histories, in: Advances in Landslide Understanding, edited by: Alonso, E. and Pinyol, N., International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain, 60–63, 2017.
Richards, L. A.: Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums, J. Appl. Phys., 1, 318–333, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1745010, 1931.
Rosso, R., Rulli, M. C., and Vannucchi, G.: A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 42, W06410, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004369, 2006.
Shiozawa, S. and Campbell, G. S.: Soil thermal conductivity, Remote Sens. Rev., 5, 301–310, https://doi.org/10.1080/02757259009532137, 1990.
Šimunek, J., Van Genuchten, M. T., and Šejna, M.: The HYDRUS software package for simulating two-and three-dimensional movement of water, heat, and multiple solutes in variably-saturated media, Technical manual, version 1, PC Progress, Prague, Czech Republic, 241 pp., 2006.
Song, W. K., Cui, Y. J., Tang, A. M., Ding, W. Q., and Wang, Q.: Experimental study on water evaporation from compacted clay using environmental chamber, Can. Geotech. J., 53, 1293–1304, https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2015-0415, 2016.
Tetens, O.: Uber einige meteorologische begriffe, Z. Geophys., 297–309, 1930.
van Genuchten, M. T.: A closed form equation for predictiong the hydraulic conductivity, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 44, 892–898, https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1980.03615995004400050002x, 1980.
Wilson, G. W., Fredlund, D. G., and Barbour, S. L.: Coupled soil–atmosphere modeling for soil evaporation, Can. Geotech. J., 31, 151–161, https://doi.org/10.1139/t94-021, 1994.
Wilson, G. W., Fredlund, D. G., and Barbour, S. L.: The effect of soil suction on evaporative fluxes from soil surfaces, Can. Geotech. J., 34, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.1139/t98-034, 1997.
Short summary
Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region caused many deaths and huge costs. The development of early warning systems represents a key issue for the area. However, the features of such soils make the development of reliable predictive tools challenging. The relevance of accounting for evaporative losses in slope hydrological balance regulating safety conditions is here discussed. To that end, the 2005 landslide in Nocera Inferiore is used as test case.
Recently, landslides affecting pyroclastic covers of Campania Region caused many deaths and huge...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint