Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS

Recent

The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with NHESS-related topics, the recent preprints posted in NHESS’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in NHESS.
17 Apr 2026
Reliability Analysis Method for Soil Slopes Permanent Displacement under Mainshock-Aftershock Sequences
Tianyi Wang, Chengda Zhang, Jiangwei Zhang, Su Chen, and Zhijun Dai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-638,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-638, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Apr 2026
The damability function: a probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA
Paul M. Morgan, Alex Grant, Will Struble, Sean LaHusen, and Alison Duvall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1745-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1745-2026, 2026
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16 Apr 2026
Assessing sea level rise and extreme events along the China–Europe Sea Route
Rita Lecci, Robyn Gwee, Kun Yan, Sanne Muis, Nadia Pinardi, Jun She, Martin Verlaan, Simona Masina, Wenshan Li, Hui Wang, Salvatore Causio, Antonio Novellino, Marco Alba, Etiënne Kras, Sandra Gaytan Aguilar, and Jan-Bart Calewaert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1767–1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1767-2026, 2026
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16 Apr 2026
Improved Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels via Non-asymptotic Statistical Methods for Coastal Hazard Assessment
S. Sithara, Chiara Favaretto, Piero Ruol, and Marco Marani
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1243,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1243, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Apr 2026
Using artificial intelligence to monitor live fuel moisture content across France, based on a high-resolution land surface analysis
Yann Baehr, Pierre Vanderbecken, Bertrand Bonan, Catherine Robert, Mathieu Regimbeau, François Pimont, Kevyn Raynal, Xiangzhuo Liu, Remi Savazzi, Moncef Garouani, Josiane Mothe, Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez, Lionel Jarlan, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1247,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1247, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Apr 2026
Towards global sensitivity analysis of large-scale flood loss models
Francesca Pianosi, Georgios Sarailidis, Kirsty Styles, Philip Oldham, Stephen Hutchings, Rob Lamb, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1727-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1727-2026, 2026
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15 Apr 2026
Global Sub-national Impact-based Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones Using Open Data: Combining Machine Learning and Exposure-based Approaches
Federico Moss, Yelena Mejova, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Tristan Downing, Marc van den Homberg, Pauline Ndirangu, Leonardo Milano, and Kyriaki Kalimeri
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1996,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1996, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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14 Apr 2026
Quantifying fire effects on debris flow runout using a morphodynamic model and stochastic surrogates
Elaine T. Spiller, Luke A. McGuire, Palak Patel, Abani Patra, and E. Bruce Pitman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1705–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1705-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1705-2026, 2026
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14 Apr 2026
A geospatial database of coastal characteristics for erosion assessment of Europe's coastal floodplains
Susan E. Hanson, Robert J. Nicholls, Floris R. Calkoen, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Arjen P. Luijendijk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1685–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1685-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1685-2026, 2026
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14 Apr 2026
Simulating spatial multi-hazards with generative deep learning
Alison Peard, Yu Mo, and Jim W. Hall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1663-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1663-2026, 2026
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14 Apr 2026
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Stromboli volcano: 1. Review of historical sources and expert elicitation findings
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Emmie M. Bonilauri, Andrew J. L. Harris, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Raphaël Paris, Marco Pistolesi, Matteo Trolese, Juan F. Rodríguez-Gálvez, Daniele Andronico, Antonella Bertagnini, Sonia Calvari, Daniele Casalbore, Michael Cassidy, Riccardo Civico, Elisabetta Del Bello, Alessio Di Roberto, Alessandro Fornaciai, Anita Grezio, Lucia Gurioli, Carl B. Harbitz, Giorgio Lacanna, Finn Løvholt, Michael Marani, Massimo Pompilio, Tullio Ricci, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Roger Urgeles, and Marija Voloschina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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14 Apr 2026
Modeling the potential hazard of wildfires under the influence of climatic, vegetative and anthropogenic factors in the Andean and Amazonian regions of Peru
Yerson Ccanchi, Ricardo Zubieta, Josep Prado, and Jose Sinticala
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1902,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1902, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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13 Apr 2026
Infra-Net: A Robust Parallel Decision-Making Network for Discriminating Natural Hazards and Anthropogenic Infrasound Events via Multi-View Feature Learning
Hongru Li, Xihai Li, Jihao Liu, Shengjie Luo, and Yun Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1544,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1544, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Apr 2026
Atmospheric geopotentials from ERA5 linked to the daily maximum temperature record-breaking in Spain (1960–2023)
Elsa Barrio-Torres, Jesús Abaurrea, Jesús Asín, Jorge Castillo-Mateo, Ana Carmen Cebrián, and Zeus Gracia-Tabuenca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-832,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-832, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Apr 2026
Severe convective weather in Italy: Current understanding and Research Priorities in the TIM campaign
Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Alessandro Bracci, Massimiliano Burlando, Francesco Cairo, Federico Canepa, Vincenzo Capozzi, Sebastiano Carpentari, Federico Cassola, Alessandro Ceppi, Silvio Davolio, Francesco De Martin, Giorgio Doglioni, Costanza Di Felice Fabrizi, Luca Di Liberto, Francesco Domenichini, Stefano Federico, Massimo Enrico Ferrario, Federico Grazzini, Antonio Iengo, Sante Laviola, Agostino Manzato, Paolo Paganini, Antonio Parodi, Alessandro Pavan, Andrea Piazza, Arturo Pucillo, Giovanni Ravezzani, Francesco Sioni, Barbara Turato, Gianfranco Vulpiani, Marco Zanatta, and Dino Zardi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1478,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1478, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Apr 2026
Operational damage misclassification in scenario-based ShakeMaps: evidence from station-updated ground-motion fields in a deep-basin urban environment
Fatma İ. Kara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1523,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1523, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Apr 2026
Sensitivity analysis and scaling of tsunamis generated by granular flows at Stromboli volcano: A numerical modeling approach
Matteo Trolese, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Mattia de’ Michieli Vitturi, and Alessandro Tadini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1757,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1757, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Apr 2026
Managed Aquifer Recharge in Confined Multi-Layer Aquifers: A Scalable Framework for Drought Resilience in Central Europe
Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali Abdelrahman, Hagen Koch, Mobarok Hossain, Ronjon Heim, Clara Hauke, and Irina Engelhardt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1378,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1378, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Apr 2026
FRAME v1.0: Advancing Fire Risk Assessment in Tropical Fragmented Forests with a Machine Learning Environment
Anasuya Barik and Somnath Baidya Roy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1454,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1454, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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09 Apr 2026
Seismic analysis of bedload discharge at Tagliamento River during flood events
Mario Valerio Gangemi, Julien Barrière, Alfio Marco Borzì, Andrea Cannata, Flavio Cannavò, Adrien Oth, Stefano Parolai, Matteo Picozzi, Concetto Spampinato, Luca Zini, Giulia Barisioni, and Francesco Panzera
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1534,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1534, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Apr 2026
Review article: Reviewing Berlin's urban parks from the perspectives of socio-economic inequality, climate resilience, and sustainable management
Subham Mukherjee, Kei Namba, Katrin M. Nissen, Ehsan Razipoor, Stefan Heiland, and Brigitta Schütt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1635–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1635-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1635-2026, 2026
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08 Apr 2026
Southern Germany's 100-year flash flood discharge expected to increase by 30 % under an RCP8.5 climate
Paul Voit, Marie Hundhausen, Larisa Seregina, Hendrik Feldmann, Bodo Ahrens, and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1229,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1229, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Apr 2026
Is the volume-frequency distribution of eruptions a power-law? Accounting for volume uncertainty in modeling the size distribution of volcanic eruptions
Salvatore Ferrara, Jacopo Selva, Jacopo Natale, and Warner Marzocchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1415,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1415, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Apr 2026
Forecasting the Flame: Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Northeast Mediterranean
Bikem Ekberzade
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1498,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1498, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Apr 2026
Outrunning flash floods: XGBoost and sparse impact reports deliver global medium-range probabilistic forecasts of flash flood occurrence
Fatima M. Pillosu, Mariana Claire, Calum Baugh, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhome, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1591,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1591, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Apr 2026
Landslide susceptibility mapping with explainable AI techniques: Evidence from Bavaria, Germany
Veronika Buchauer, Marta Sapena, Christian Geiß, Patrick Aravena Pelizari, and Hannes Taubenböck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1647,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1647, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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07 Apr 2026
Applied Machine Learning for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Loukkos Basin (Northern Morocco): Validation Using the February 2026 Ksar El Kebir Flood Event
Oussama Mekkaoui, Moad Morarech, Tarik Bouramtane, and Hamza Akka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1001,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1001, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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07 Apr 2026
Assessing Financial Risk to Property Portfolios from Physical Rainfall Extremes
Laura C. Dawkins, Freya K. Garry, Dan J. Bernie, Jason A. Lowe, and Theodoros Economou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1142,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1142, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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07 Apr 2026
Distinguishing run-up height from pressure distribution during avalanche impact on narrow obstacles: mechanisms and semi-empirical prediction
Michael Josef Kohler, Johan Gaume, Christophe Ancey, and Betty Sovilla
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1181,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1181, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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07 Apr 2026
Universal scaling between precursory duration and event size across mechanically driven geohazards
Qinghua Lei and Didier Sornette
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.07404,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.07404, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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07 Apr 2026
Linear passive source surface wave dispersion curve picking based on supervised deep learning and ambient noise tomography for the evolution of the internal structure in landslide area
Qifeng Yin, Peiqi Wang, Chi Gao, Yuanyuan Zhou, Hua Zhang, Weilong Jiang, and Yanbiao Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1329,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1329, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Apr 2026
A hybrid model based on Boruta feature selection and neural network for forecasting hydrological drought
Min Li, Yuhang Yao, Ming Ou, and Changman Yin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1033,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1033, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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02 Apr 2026
Valuing Salt Marshes as Nature-based Infrastructure for Coastal Flood Mitigation: A Case Study of Chatham County, GA
Xinyu Zeng, Dede Long, Yukiko Hashida, and Matthew V. Bilskie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1475,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1475, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Apr 2026
Bayesian forecasting of triggered landslides
Flavia Ferriero, Fausto Guzzetti, and Warner Marzocchi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1624,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1624, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Apr 2026
Floods in the European Union and the Middle East and North Africa region: Socio-economic impacts, characteristics, and public perception
Mélanie Coleman, Andries-Jan de Vries, Caroline Roberts, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1827,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1827, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Apr 2026
Brief Communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River- A Multifaceted Post Event Analysis of the July 4, 2025, Flood in Central Texas
Anupal Baruah, Dinuke Munasinghe, Sagy Cohen, Mohamed Abdelkader, Dipsikha Devi, Yixian Chen, and Humberto Vergara
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1847,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1847, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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01 Apr 2026
Reconstruction and forecasting of slow-moving landslide displacement using a Kalman Filter approach
Mohit Mishra, Gildas Besançon, Guillaume Chambon, and Laurent Baillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1621-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1621-2026, 2026
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31 Mar 2026
Development and validation of an Early Warning System for coastal flooding operating on a Mediterranean urban beach
Antonis Chatzipavlis, Daniele Trogu, Andrea Ruju, Juan Montes, Antonio Usai, Marco Porta, Giovanni Coco, Sandro De Muro, and Paolo Ciavola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1573–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026, 2026
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31 Mar 2026
Predicting thunderstorm risk probability at very short time range using deep learning
Mélanie Bosc, Adrien Chan-Hon-Tong, Aurélie Bouchard, and Dominique Béréziat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1603-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1603-2026, 2026
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31 Mar 2026
Analysis on Multi-Factor Synergistic Hazards Mechanism of Wet Micro-Downburst: a Multi-Source Data Fusion Analysis Based on Passenger Vessel Capsizing Accident in Qianxi, Guizhou on 4 May 2025
Ankun Wu, Xi Guo, Dan Yao, Xiaoling Du, Dongpo He, Jue Li, Shisheng Jin, and Tienan Bai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1561–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1561-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1561-2026, 2026
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31 Mar 2026
Short-Term Management of Water-Damage Claim Risk Using Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
Håkon Otneim, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Sondre Hølleland, Mahsa Gorji, and Geir Drage Berentsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1169,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1169, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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31 Mar 2026
Can Aerosols improve Urban Flood Prediction? A case study of 2015 Chennai extreme event
Oscar Paul, N. Nithila Devi, Rakesh Teja Konduru, Soumendra Nath Kuiry, Kundan Lal Shrestha, and Chandan Sarangi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1218,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1218, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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31 Mar 2026
A Joint Space-Time Probabilistic Model for Agricultural Droughts, Hydrological Droughts and Fire Weather in France
Benjamin Renard, Renaud Barbero, Issa Goukouni, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Louise Mimeau, Carina Furusho-Percot, Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Maël Aubry, Thomas Opitz, and Denis Allard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1406,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1406, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Mar 2026
Budget Allocation for Emergency Management in Flood-Prone Mining Regions: A System Dynamics Perspective
Dairo Steven Muñoz Pinzón, Diana Rodríguez Coca, William J. Guerrero Rueda, and Leonardo José González Rodríguez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1145,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1145, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Mar 2026
Invited Perspectives: Science for Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management
Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kees Boersma, Tomris Cesuroglu, Nathan Clark, Tina Comes, Ashok Dahal, Sonja Fransen, Jasper Verschuur, Carmen Anthonj, Srijith Balakrishnan, Jens de Bruijn, Eefje Hendriks, Rodrigo Mena Fluhmann, Goda Perlaviciute, Linda Steg, Marc van den Homberg, Cees van Westen, Funda Atun, Anja Schreijer, and Nicole van Maanen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1331,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1331, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Mar 2026
Analysis and modeling of coastal hazards to the desalination plants in the Baltic Sea – disentangling the impacts of a coastal storm in summer 2023
Matteo Masini, Agnes Karlsson, Lars Arneborg, Bengt Karlson, and Inga Monika Koszalka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1344,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1344, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Mar 2026
Effect of Design Storm Characterization on Flood Exposure and Structure Damage Estimates: A Case Study in South Louisiana, USA
Mohamed ElSaadani, Emad Habib, and Mohamed M. Morsy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1388,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1388, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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27 Mar 2026
A Study of Pre-earthquake Anomalies in Geomagnetic and Borehole Strain Data Based on the Pyraformer Model
Jie Zhang, Minhao Sun, Changfeng Qin, Feng Mu, Shanzhi Dong, Yu Duan, Dewang Zhang, and Chengquan Chi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1715,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1715, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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25 Mar 2026
Tracking the slopes: a spatio-temporal prediction model for backcountry skiing activity in the Swiss Alps using user-generated content
Leonie Schäfer, Frank Techel, Günter Schmudlach, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1537–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1537-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1537-2026, 2026
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25 Mar 2026
Toward early warning of drought impacts: a framework for predicting drought impacts in the UK
Burak Bulut, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Opeyemi E. Adedipe, Maliko Tanguy, Lucy J. Barker, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1515–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1515-2026, 2026
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24 Mar 2026
Comparing flood forecasting and early warning systems in northwestern Europe
Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jaap Kwadijk, Davide Zoccatelli, Rafaella G. L. Oliveira, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret H. Thieken, Jan Verkade, Patrick Willems, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1457–1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1457-2026, 2026
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24 Mar 2026
What controls fire size in the South American Gran Chaco? Exploring atmospheric and landscape drivers through Remote Sensing
Rodrigo San Martín, Catherine Ottlé, Anna Sörensson, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Florent Mouillot, and Marielle Malfante
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1479–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026, 2026
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24 Mar 2026
Simulation of sliding deadwood logs in mountain forests: towards a quantitative hazard assessment
Joël Borner, Peter Bebi, Leon Bührle, Adrian Ringenbach, and Remco Ingmar Leine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-130,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-130, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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24 Mar 2026
Scale-dependent spatial coherence between historical and instrumental earthquake catalogues at the global scale
Antonino D'Alessandro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-521,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-521, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Mar 2026
The Cold Spell That Never Happened: Climatological Assessment of the Winter 2025/26 Cold and Snowfall Episodes in Bucharest and Their Disproportionate Media Representation
Monica Ionita, Bogdan Antonescu, and Viorica Nagavciuc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1457,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1457, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Mar 2026
Brief communication: Extreme rainfall–driven flooding associated with the equatorial development of Tropical Cyclone Senyar in Aceh, Indonesia
Saumi Syahreza, Muhammad Syukri, Harisa Bilhaqqi Qalbi, Ahmad Farhan, and Eko Cahyo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-694,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-694, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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20 Mar 2026
Characterizing geologic and climatic controls on rockfall hazards using an inventory and integrated kinematic and runout model: Skagway, Alaska, USA
Ian D. Wachino, Joshua J. Roering, Reuben Cash, and Annette I. Patton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1435–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1435-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1435-2026, 2026
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20 Mar 2026
Oriented Object Detection for Complex Hydrodynamic Features: A Multi-Platform Rip Current Identification System
Albert Català-Gonell, Jesús Soriano-González, Elena Sánchez-García, Francisco Fabián Criado-Sudau, Josep Oliver-Sansó, Valentin Kozlov, Khadijeh Alibabaei, José Luis Lisani, and Àngels Fernández-Mora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1138,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1138, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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20 Mar 2026
Attribution of The Record Breaking 2025 European Fire Season to Climate Change
Theodore R. Keeping, Mariam Zachariah, Olivia Haas, Μanolis Grillakis, Clair Barnes, Gareth D. Clay, Bikem Ekberzade, Orjeta Jaupaj, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ricardo M. Trigo, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Friederike E. L. Otto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1193,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1193, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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19 Mar 2026
Climate and impact attribution of compound flooding induced by tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique
Doris M. Vertegaal, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Anaïs Couasnon, Natalia Aleksandrova, Tycho Bovenschen, Fernaldi Gradiyanto, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Henrique M. D. Goulart, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1417–1433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1417-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1417-2026, 2026
Short summary
19 Mar 2026
Spatio-Temporal Non-Stationarity of Flood Risk in the European Alps over the last 1,450 Years
Hansjörg Albrecher, Maria Laura Battagliola, Martin Bladt, Alaric J. A. Müller, and Tina Swierczynsk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1016,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1016, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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19 Mar 2026
Mobility of dry granular debris flows over erodible beds: Experimental insights into the influence of flow–bed inertia
Katharina Wetterauer, Sebastian Müller, Michael Krautblatter, Shiva P. Pudasaini, and Ivo Baselt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1235,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1235, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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19 Mar 2026
Using machine learning for the prediction of flood-related 112 calls
Jordi Morales, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Àgata Lapedriza, and Xavier Llort
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1253,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1253, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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18 Mar 2026
The role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in driving coastal hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Meredith Leung, Peter Ruggiero, Laura Cagigal, Dylan Anderson, and Fernando Mendez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1397–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1397-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1397-2026, 2026
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18 Mar 2026
RHITA: a web tool for real-time detection of extreme weather events
Greta Cazzaniga, Anastasia Akakpo-Numado, Patrick Brockmann, Adrien Burq, Mathieu Vrac, and Davide Faranda
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1175,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1175, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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18 Mar 2026
Automated Avalanche Hazard Indication for Southeast Alaska
Elizabeth Fischer, Gabriel J. Wolken, Yves Bühler, Marc Christen, and Rick Lader
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1345,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1345, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Mar 2026
Fire across frontiers: Satellite-based investigation of climate-fire interactions in the Middle East (West Asia)
Wan Ni Lin, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, and Lina Eklund
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1085,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1085, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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17 Mar 2026
Multi-scale spatial validation and probability calibration of pixel-based landslide susceptibility modeling in the northern Peruvian Andes
Wendy Quiroz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1318,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1318, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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16 Mar 2026
Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions – a study focused on Burundi
Jess L. Delves, Kathrin Renner, Piero Campalani, Jesica Piñon, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Mateo Moreno, Maria Belen Benito Oterino, Eduardo Perez, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1347–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1347-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1347-2026, 2026
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16 Mar 2026
Topographic profile and morphology analysis of shallow landslides inside and outside of forests with a semi-automatic mapping approach and bi-temporal airborne laser scanning data
Lotte de Vugt, Thomas Zieher, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, Frank Perzl, Marc Adams, and Martin Rutzinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1375–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1375-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1375-2026, 2026
Short summary
11 Mar 2026
| Highlight paper
Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan
Yusuke Hiraga, Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua, Shunji Kotsuki, Yoshiharu Suzuki, Shu-Hua Chen, Atsushi Hamada, Kazuaki Yasunaga, and Takuya Funatomi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1287–1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
11 Mar 2026
Droughts in South East Europe (SEE): current picture, tendencies and impact
Maria Kireeva, Mirjana Radulović, Gordan Mimić, Marthe Wens, and Tijana Nikolić-Lugonja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1305–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1305-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1305-2026, 2026
Short summary
11 Mar 2026
Reducing risk together: moving towards a more holistic approach to multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management
Philip J. Ward, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Judith N. Claassen, James Daniell, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Julius Schlumberger, Timothy Tiggeloven, Silvia Torresan, Nicole van Maanen, Andrew Warren, Carmen D. Álvarez-Albelo, Vanessa Banks, Benjamin Blanz, Veronica Casartelli, Jordan Correa, Julia Crummy, Anne Sophie Daloz, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Juan José Díaz-Hernández, Jaime Díaz-Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Davide Ferrario, David Geurts, Sara García-González, Joel C. Gill, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Wiebke S. Jäger, Abel López-Díez, Lin Ma, Jaroslav Mysiak, Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Noemi Padrón Fumero, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Karina Reiter, Jana Sillmann, Lara Smale, and Tristian Stolte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1325–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1325-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1325-2026, 2026
Short summary
11 Mar 2026
Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs physics-based forecast approaches
Emma Holmberg and Leonardo Olivetti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1144,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1144, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Mar 2026
Critical evaluation of strong ground motions in Izmir and implications for future earthquake simulation results
Şahin Çağlar Tuna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1231–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1231-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1231-2026, 2026
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10 Mar 2026
Integrating SMART principles in flood early warning system design in the Himalayas
Sudhanshu Dixit, Sumit Sen, Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Debashish Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1251–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1251-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1251-2026, 2026
Short summary
10 Mar 2026
Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September–November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa
Hermann Ngueyon Nana, Roméo Stève Tanessong, Masilin Gudoshava, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1269-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1269-2026, 2026
Short summary
10 Mar 2026
Understanding the combined mental health impacts of flooding and COVID-19 in Hue City, Central Vietnam
Thi Dieu My Pham, Paul Hudson, Annegret H. Thieken, and Philip Bubeck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1207–1230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1207-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1207-2026, 2026
Short summary
10 Mar 2026
A temporally continuous, probabilistic framework for observed multi-decadal flood susceptibility evolution in Canadian watersheds
Heather McGrath
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-528,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-528, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Mar 2026
Historical and Projected Changes in Temperature–Precipitation Compound Hot and Dry Extremes across Africa Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 Ensemble Simulations
Paul Adigun, Koji Dairaku, Akinwale T. Ogunrinde, Ebiendele Precious, Muhammad Umar Nadeem, Ermias Sisay Brhane, and Xian Xue
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-721,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-721, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Mar 2026
The impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on household income and expenditure in the Canterbury region in New Zealand
Quanfu Zhang, Ilan Noy, and Yigit Saglam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1005,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1005, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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10 Mar 2026
Detection of agricultural flash droughts using impact-informed thresholds
Ingrid Ubeda-Trujillo, Micha Werner, Claudia Bertini, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Graham Jewitt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1010,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1010, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Mar 2026
Communication and Education Strategies to Raise Awareness and Understanding of Volcanic Hazard During Times of Quiescence: A Literature Review
Rebeckah S. Hufstetler, Hollie Smith, Emilie E. E. Hooft, and Laura Gattis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1123,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1123, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Mar 2026
Identification of hydro-meteorological drivers for forest low greenness events in Europe
Pauline Rivoire, Sonia Dupuis, Antoine Guisan, Pascal Vittoz, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1183–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1183-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1183-2026, 2026
Short summary
06 Mar 2026
Integrating total water level data and visual evidence to assess coastal flooding in San Diego County
Denali M. Pinto, Antonio Catanzarite, Anshul Govindu, Laura Engeman, Thomas W. Corringham, Julia Fiedler, Alexander Gershunov, and Mark Merrifield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-820,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-820, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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06 Mar 2026
Compound Drivers and Spatial Connectivity led to the Devastating Debris Flood in the Village of La Bérarde, June 2024, French Alps
Simon Filhol, Clément Misset, Noélie Bontemps, Diego Cusicanqui, Emmanuel Paquet, Marie Dumont, Olivier Gagliardini, Pascal Lacroix, Simon Gascoin, Guillaume Thirel, Julien Brondex, Pascal Hagenmuller, Eric Larose, Philipp Schoeneich, Denis Roy, Emmanuel Thibert, Nicolas Eckert, Félix de Montety, Robin Mainieri, Alexandre Hauet, Frédéric Gottardi, Johan Berthet, Alexandre Baratier, Frédéric Liébault, Małgorzata Chmiel, Guillaume Piton, Guillaume Chambon, Guillaume James, Philippe Frey, Philip Deline, Laurent Astrade, Christian Vincent, Dominique Laigle, Alain Recking, Fatima Karbou, Adrien Mauss, Mylène Bonnefoy-Demongeot, Firmin Fontaine, Mickael Langlais, Etienne Berthier, and Antoine Blanc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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05 Mar 2026
The EAWS matrix, a decision support tool to determine the regional avalanche danger level (Part B): operational testing and use
Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, Christopher Marquardt, and Christoph Mitterer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1161–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1161-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1161-2026, 2026
Short summary
05 Mar 2026
The 15 September 2022 floods in northern Marche (Central Italy): disaster analysis, case studies and mitigation strategies for hydro-geomorphological hazard
Fabrizio Bendia, Piero Farabollini, Marco Materazzi, and Margherita Bufalini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1119–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1119-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1119-2026, 2026
Short summary
05 Mar 2026
| Highlight paper
Mitigating Mazuku hazards: implementation and effectiveness of local dry-gas degassing measures in the Goma area (Virunga Volcanic Province)
Blaise Mafuko-Nyandwi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1141–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1141-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1141-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
05 Mar 2026
Sequential approach to seismotectonic zonation for South-East France
Victoria Mowbray, Marguerite Mathey, Christian Sue, Stéphane Baize, Anne Lemoine, and Céline Beauval
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-623,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-623, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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04 Mar 2026
Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA
Erich H. Peitzsch, Justin T. Martin, Ethan M. Greene, Nicolas Eckert, Adrien Favillier, Jason Konigsberg, Nickolas Kichas, Daniel K. Stahle, Karl W. Birkeland, Kelly Elder, and Gregory T. Pederson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1059–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026, 2026
Short summary
04 Mar 2026
Harnessing multi-source hydro-meteorological data for high flows modelling in a partially glacierized Himalayan basin
Domenico De Santis, Silvia Barbetta, Sumit Sen, Viviana Maggioni, Farhad Bahmanpouri, Ashutosh Sharma, Ankit Agarwal, Sagar Gupta, Francesco Avanzi, and Christian Massari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1075–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1075-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1075-2026, 2026
Short summary
04 Mar 2026
A thorough review of the 5 May 1990 Potenza (Southern Italy) earthquake: constraints from macroseismology and insights from hydrology
Andrea Antonucci, Corrado Castellano, Luigi Cucci, and Andrea Tertulliani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1105–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1105-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1105-2026, 2026
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04 Mar 2026
Increasing heat stress across Southeast Asia driven by compound warming and moistening
Dzung Nguyen-Le
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-829,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-829, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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04 Mar 2026
Post-Processing High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts for Extreme Rainfall: Short-Term Skill Evaluation over Kyushu, Japan
Magfira Syarifuddin, Hamada Atsushi, Houtian He, and Kazuaki Yasunaga
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1052,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1052, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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03 Mar 2026
Assessing the intensification and impact of a historical storm in a warmer climate
Johanne Kristine Haandbæk Øelund, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Rune Magnus Koktvedgaard Zeitzen, Henrik Vedel, and Henrik Feddersen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1039–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1039-2026, 2026
Short summary
03 Mar 2026
| Highlight paper
Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Simon Allen, Sonam Wangchuk, and Ashim Sattar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
03 Mar 2026
Review article: Flash Floods in Mountainous Regions: Global Research Trends, Process Mechanisms, and Control Measures
Zhenghang Chen, Meili Feng, Matthew F. Johnson, Nigel Wright, Ying Weng, Faith Ka Shun Chan, and Feng Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-937,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-937, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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02 Mar 2026
Constantly renewing glacial lakes in the Kyrgyz Range, northern Tien Shan
Mirlan Daiyrov and Chiyuki Narama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1001–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1001-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1001-2026, 2026
Short summary
02 Mar 2026
Spatial machine learning modelling reveals that soil indicators and tree type best explain shallow landslide release
Denise Christina Rüther, Kristine Flacké Haualand, Iris Louisa Johanna Peeters, and Mark Andrew Kusk Gillespie
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-579,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-579, 2026
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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