Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017
Research article
 | 
13 Dec 2017
Research article |  | 13 Dec 2017

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Robbie Jones, Vern Manville, Jeff Peakall, Melanie J. Froude, and Henry M. Odbert

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Cited articles

Alexander, J., Barclay, J., Susnik, J., Loughlin, S. C., Herd, R. A., Darnell, A., and Crosweller, S.: Sediment-charged flash floods on Montserrat: the influence of synchronous tephra fall and varying extent of vegetation damage, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 194, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.05.002, 2010.
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Short summary
Rain-triggered lahars are significant secondary hazards at volcanoes where pyroclastic material is exposed to rainfall. Lahar risk mitigation typically relies upon ground-based flow detection or observation; however this study uses rainfall data and instrumental lahar records from the Belham valley, Montserrat, to devise new rain-triggered lahar prediction tools. These tools demonstrate the potential to effectively forecast lahars in real time, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates.
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