Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 12

Research article

|

13 Dec 2017

Research article |

| 13 Dec 2017

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Robbie Jones, Vern Manville, Jeff Peakall, Melanie J. Froude, and Henry M. Odbert

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May 2019	2	4	0	6
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 May 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2017	112	26	4	142
Jun 2017	96	13	8	117
Jul 2017	33	8	1	42
Aug 2017	17	9	0	26
Sep 2017	20	8	0	28
Oct 2017	12	7	1	20
Nov 2017	7	4	0	11
Dec 2017	98	39	5	142
Jan 2018	100	31	11	142
Feb 2018	38	21	1	60
Mar 2018	16	16	1	33
Apr 2018	8	4	0	12
May 2018	9	5	0	14
Jun 2018	15	20	2	37
Jul 2018	12	13	0	25
Aug 2018	31	19	1	51
Sep 2018	16	14	1	31
Oct 2018	16	16	2	34
Nov 2018	17	16	1	34
Dec 2018	10	12	0	22
Jan 2019	12	9	1	22
Feb 2019	12	20	0	32
Mar 2019	5	3	0	8
Apr 2019	10	8	0	18
May 2019	2	4	0	6
Jun 2019	8	9	0	17
Jul 2019	12	5	0	17
Aug 2019	8	7	1	16
Sep 2019	4	6	1	11
Oct 2019	7	3	0	10
Nov 2019	9	11	0	20
Dec 2019	5	6	0	11
Jan 2020	13	14	2	29
Feb 2020	9	10	1	20
Mar 2020	1	7	0	8
Apr 2020	3	7	0	10
May 2020	5	6	1	12
Jun 2020	12	13	0	25
Jul 2020	19	21	9	49
Aug 2020	8	7	4	19
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Oct 2020	6	8	1	15
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Jun 2021	5	11	0	16
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Aug 2021	9	6	0	15
Sep 2021	9	12	0	21
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Nov 2021	6	28	0	34
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Jan 2022	8	13	0	21
Feb 2022	4	9	1	14
Mar 2022	4	6	0	10
Apr 2022	9	14	2	25
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Jan 2024	8	10	2	20
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Apr 2024	20	6	4	30
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Jun 2024	16	10	1	27
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Nov 2024	5	13	0	18
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Jan 2025	8	11	0	19
Feb 2025	22	20	1	43
Mar 2025	16	21	2	39
Apr 2025	19	12	0	31
May 2025	19	7	2	28
Jun 2025	39	10	0	49
Jul 2025	23	15	2	40
Aug 2025	16	9	1	26

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Short summary

Rain-triggered lahars are significant secondary hazards at volcanoes where pyroclastic material is exposed to rainfall. Lahar risk mitigation typically relies upon ground-based flow detection or observation; however this study uses rainfall data and instrumental lahar records from the Belham valley, Montserrat, to devise new rain-triggered lahar prediction tools. These tools demonstrate the potential to effectively forecast lahars in real time, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates.

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

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Cited

9 citations as recorded by crossref.

7 citations as recorded by crossref.

2 citations as recorded by crossref.


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