Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2301-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 12

Research article

|

13 Dec 2017

Research article |

| 13 Dec 2017

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Robbie Jones, Vern Manville, Jeff Peakall, Melanie J. Froude, and Henry M. Odbert

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Total article views: 2,882 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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1,589	1,168	125	2,882	144	176

HTML: 1,589
PDF: 1,168
XML: 125
Total: 2,882
BibTeX: 144
EndNote: 176

Views and downloads (calculated since 23 May 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Jun 2017	96	13	8	117
Jul 2017	33	8	1	42
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Oct 2017	12	7	1	20
Nov 2017	7	4	0	11
Dec 2017	98	39	5	142
Jan 2018	100	31	11	142
Feb 2018	38	21	1	60
Mar 2018	16	16	1	33
Apr 2018	8	4	0	12
May 2018	9	5	0	14
Jun 2018	15	20	2	37
Jul 2018	12	13	0	25
Aug 2018	31	19	1	51
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Oct 2018	16	16	2	34
Nov 2018	17	16	1	34
Dec 2018	10	12	0	22
Jan 2019	12	9	1	22
Feb 2019	12	20	0	32
Mar 2019	5	3	0	8
Apr 2019	10	8	0	18
May 2019	2	4	0	6
Jun 2019	8	9	0	17
Jul 2019	12	5	0	17
Aug 2019	8	7	1	16
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Oct 2019	7	3	0	10
Nov 2019	9	11	0	20
Dec 2019	5	6	0	11
Jan 2020	13	14	2	29
Feb 2020	9	10	1	20
Mar 2020	1	7	0	8
Apr 2020	3	7	0	10
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Jun 2020	12	13	0	25
Jul 2020	19	21	9	49
Aug 2020	8	7	4	19
Sep 2020	12	7	0	19
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Jan 2022	8	13	0	21
Feb 2022	4	9	1	14
Mar 2022	4	6	0	10
Apr 2022	9	14	2	25
May 2022	8	13	1	22
Jun 2022	5	10	0	15
Jul 2022	4	6	1	11
Aug 2022	19	9	0	28
Sep 2022	2	4	1	7
Oct 2022	6	5	0	11
Nov 2022	7	11	0	18
Dec 2022	9	8	0	17
Jan 2023	8	10	1	19
Feb 2023	14	9	0	23
Mar 2023	19	12	1	32
Apr 2023	21	5	1	27
May 2023	23	9	3	35
Jun 2023	6	8	0	14
Jul 2023	8	8	1	17
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Oct 2023	12	12	0	24
Nov 2023	6	6	0	12
Dec 2023	14	11	2	27
Jan 2024	8	10	2	20
Feb 2024	7	8	3	18
Mar 2024	10	14	3	27
Apr 2024	20	6	4	30
May 2024	17	12	3	32
Jun 2024	16	10	1	27
Jul 2024	14	8	5	27
Aug 2024	16	9	4	29
Sep 2024	6	11	1	18
Oct 2024	14	16	1	31
Nov 2024	5	13	0	18
Dec 2024	13	17	1	31
Jan 2025	8	11	0	19
Feb 2025	22	20	1	43
Mar 2025	16	21	2	39
Apr 2025	19	12	0	31
May 2025	19	7	2	28
Jun 2025	39	10	0	49
Jul 2025	23	15	2	40
Aug 2025	18	13	1	32
Sep 2025	36	13	0	49
Oct 2025	23	29	1	53
Nov 2025	2	3	0	5

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 May 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2017	112	26	4	142
Jun 2017	96	13	8	117
Jul 2017	33	8	1	42
Aug 2017	17	9	0	26
Sep 2017	20	8	0	28
Oct 2017	12	7	1	20
Nov 2017	7	4	0	11
Dec 2017	98	39	5	142
Jan 2018	100	31	11	142
Feb 2018	38	21	1	60
Mar 2018	16	16	1	33
Apr 2018	8	4	0	12
May 2018	9	5	0	14
Jun 2018	15	20	2	37
Jul 2018	12	13	0	25
Aug 2018	31	19	1	51
Sep 2018	16	14	1	31
Oct 2018	16	16	2	34
Nov 2018	17	16	1	34
Dec 2018	10	12	0	22
Jan 2019	12	9	1	22
Feb 2019	12	20	0	32
Mar 2019	5	3	0	8
Apr 2019	10	8	0	18
May 2019	2	4	0	6
Jun 2019	8	9	0	17
Jul 2019	12	5	0	17
Aug 2019	8	7	1	16
Sep 2019	4	6	1	11
Oct 2019	7	3	0	10
Nov 2019	9	11	0	20
Dec 2019	5	6	0	11
Jan 2020	13	14	2	29
Feb 2020	9	10	1	20
Mar 2020	1	7	0	8
Apr 2020	3	7	0	10
May 2020	5	6	1	12
Jun 2020	12	13	0	25
Jul 2020	19	21	9	49
Aug 2020	8	7	4	19
Sep 2020	12	7	0	19
Oct 2020	6	8	1	15
Nov 2020	8	6	2	16
Dec 2020	8	9	0	17
Jan 2021	20	11	2	33
Feb 2021	14	9	4	27
Mar 2021	10	9	0	19
Apr 2021	10	7	0	17
May 2021	7	8	1	16
Jun 2021	5	11	0	16
Jul 2021	10	7	0	17
Aug 2021	9	6	0	15
Sep 2021	9	12	0	21
Oct 2021	4	41	0	45
Nov 2021	6	28	0	34
Dec 2021	7	11	1	19
Jan 2022	8	13	0	21
Feb 2022	4	9	1	14
Mar 2022	4	6	0	10
Apr 2022	9	14	2	25
May 2022	8	13	1	22
Jun 2022	5	10	0	15
Jul 2022	4	6	1	11
Aug 2022	19	9	0	28
Sep 2022	2	4	1	7
Oct 2022	6	5	0	11
Nov 2022	7	11	0	18
Dec 2022	9	8	0	17
Jan 2023	8	10	1	19
Feb 2023	14	9	0	23
Mar 2023	19	12	1	32
Apr 2023	21	5	1	27
May 2023	23	9	3	35
Jun 2023	6	8	0	14
Jul 2023	8	8	1	17
Aug 2023	7	8	3	18
Sep 2023	3	7	0	10
Oct 2023	12	12	0	24
Nov 2023	6	6	0	12
Dec 2023	14	11	2	27
Jan 2024	8	10	2	20
Feb 2024	7	8	3	18
Mar 2024	10	14	3	27
Apr 2024	20	6	4	30
May 2024	17	12	3	32
Jun 2024	16	10	1	27
Jul 2024	14	8	5	27
Aug 2024	16	9	4	29
Sep 2024	6	11	1	18
Oct 2024	14	16	1	31
Nov 2024	5	13	0	18
Dec 2024	13	17	1	31
Jan 2025	8	11	0	19
Feb 2025	22	20	1	43
Mar 2025	16	21	2	39
Apr 2025	19	12	0	31
May 2025	19	7	2	28
Jun 2025	39	10	0	49
Jul 2025	23	15	2	40
Aug 2025	18	13	1	32
Sep 2025	36	13	0	49
Oct 2025	23	29	1	53
Nov 2025	2	3	0	5

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Total article views: 2,882 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,765 with geography defined and 117 with unknown origin.

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1

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Latest update: 02 Nov 2025

Short summary

Rain-triggered lahars are significant secondary hazards at volcanoes where pyroclastic material is exposed to rainfall. Lahar risk mitigation typically relies upon ground-based flow detection or observation; however this study uses rainfall data and instrumental lahar records from the Belham valley, Montserrat, to devise new rain-triggered lahar prediction tools. These tools demonstrate the potential to effectively forecast lahars in real time, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates.

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

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Cited

9 citations as recorded by crossref.

7 citations as recorded by crossref.

2 citations as recorded by crossref.


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