Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Research article 18 Mar 2021
Research article | 18 Mar 2021
DebrisFlow Predictor: an agent-based runout program for shallow landslides
Richard Guthrie and Andrew Befus
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows HazardsLandslide risk management analysis on expansive residential areas – case study of La Marina (Alicante, Spain)Uncertainty analysis of a rainfall threshold estimate for stony debris flow based on the backward dynamical approachControls on the formation and size of potential landslide dams and dammed lakes in the Austrian AlpsThe role of geomorphology, rainfall and soil moisture in the occurrence of landslides triggered by 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut in the PhilippinesInvited perspectives: Landslide populations – can they be predicted?Glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan (1973–2019)Exploring the potential relationship between the occurrence of debris flow and landslidesCascade effect of rock bridge failure in planar rock slides: numerical test with a distinct element codeLeveraging time series analysis of radar coherence and normalized difference vegetation index ratios to characterize pre-failure activity of the Mud Creek landslide, CaliforniaA model for interpreting the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, ChinaNepalese landslide information system (NELIS): a conceptual framework for a web-based geographical information system for enhanced landslide risk management in NepalModelling landslide hazards under global changes: the case of a Pyrenean valleyDebris flows recorded in the Moscardo catchment (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019Atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at the beginning of the 21st centuryThe potential of Smartstone probes in landslide experiments: how to read motion dataINSPIRE standards as a framework for artificial intelligence applications: a landslide exampleNew global characterisation of landslide exposureSemi-empirical prediction of dam height and stability of dams formed by rock slope failures in NorwayDetecting precursors of an imminent landslide along the Jinsha RiverA systematic exploration of satellite radar coherence methods for rapid landslide detectionIncluding informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropicsStability evaluation and potential failure process of rock slopes characterized by non-persistent fracturesDeriving rainfall thresholds for landsliding at the regional scale: daily and hourly resolutions, normalisation, and antecedent rainfallShear rate effect on the residual strength characteristics of saturated loess in naturally drained ring shear testsAssessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslidesGIS-based topographic reconstruction and geomechanical modelling of the Köfels Rock SlideThe mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia: understandings and insights derived from numerical simulation and postevent field surveysRainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal linkSpatiotemporal clustering of flash floods in a changing climate (China, 1950–2015)Timing, drivers and impacts of the historic Masiere di Vedana rock avalanche (Belluno Dolomites, NE Italy)Sensitivity and identifiability of rheological parameters in debris flow modelingAssessing the annual risk of vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide: a case study on Kennedy Road in Wan Chai, Hong KongTopographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulationsGeo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trendsMeteorology triggering factors analysis for rainfall induced hydrogeological events in alpine regionA multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern ChinaAnalysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C-means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficientErosion after an extreme storm event in an arid fluvial system of the southern Atacama Desert: an assessment of the magnitude, return time, and conditioning factors of erosion and debris flow generationProbabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability modelThree-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailing dam failure across complex terrainAn improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslidesLandslide hazard probability and risk assessment at the community level: a case of western Hubei, ChinaBack calculation of the 2017 Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade with r.avaflow: what we can do and what we can learnDynamic path-dependent landslide susceptibility modellingFrom examination of natural events to a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular-automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, EcuadorBrief communication: Post-wildfire rockfall risk in the eastern AlpsA new approach to mapping landslide hazards: a probabilistic integration of empirical and physically based models in the North Cascades of Washington, USANumerical modeling using an elastoplastic-adhesive discrete element code for simulating hillslope debris flows and calibration against field experimentsSimulation of fragmental rockfalls detected using terrestrial laser scans from rock slopes in south-central British Columbia, Canada
Isidro Cantarino, Miguel Angel Carrion, Jose Sergio Palencia-Jimenez, and Víctor Martínez-Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1847–1866,Short summary
Risk ratio (RR), developed in this paper, stands out as a robust indicator for finding the relationship between residential construction and its associated landslide risk. It proved especially useful for municipalities on the Mediterranean coast, since it differentiates between those that take on a higher risk and those that do not. Our research establishes valuable criteria to find how suitable a specific local entity's risk management is and explore what causes the incidence of landslide risk.
Marta Martinengo, Daniel Zugliani, and Giorgio Rosatti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1769–1784,Short summary
Rainfall thresholds are relations between rainfall intensity and duration on which the forecast of the possible occurrence of a debris flow can be based. To check the robustness of a physically based stony debris flow rainfall threshold, in this work we developed a procedure to estimate the effects of various sources of error on the determination of the threshold parameters. Results show that these effects are limited and therefore show the good robustness of the threshold estimate.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Jörg Robl, Günther Prasicek, Stefan Hergarten, Daniel Hölbling, Lorena Abad, and Zahra Dabiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1615–1637,Short summary
This study relies on topography to simulate the origin and displacement of potentially river-blocking landslides. It highlights a continuous range of simulated landslide dams that go unnoticed in the field due to their small scale. The computation results show that landslide-dammed lake volume can be estimated from upstream drainage area and landslide volume, thus enabling an efficient hazard assessment of possible landslide-dammed lake volume – and flooding magnitude in case of dam failure.
Clàudia Abancó, Georgina L. Bennett, Adrian J. Matthews, Mark Anthony M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1531–1550,Short summary
In 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut triggered thousands of landslides in the Itogon region (Philippines). An inventory of 1101 landslides revealed that landslides mostly occurred in slopes covered by wooded grassland in clayey materials, predominantly facing E-SE. Satellite rainfall and soil moisture data associated with Typhoon Mangkhut and the previous months in 2018 were analyzed. Results showed that landslides occurred during high-intensity rainfall that coincided with the highest soil moisture values.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1467–1471,Short summary
This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.
Silvan Leinss, Enrico Bernardini, Mylène Jacquemart, and Mikhail Dokukin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1409–1429,Short summary
A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Donghe Ma, and Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1247–1262,Short summary
In previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping, one inventory is for one kind of landslide. However, this causes some problems for prevention and management. This study aims to map two kinds of landslides and use the results on the same map to explore the potential relationship. Through superimposition of two zoning maps, this provides a new way to evaluate the disaster chain and provides a valuable reference for land use planners.
Adeline Delonca, Yann Gunzburger, and Thierry Verdel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1263–1278,Short summary
Rockfalls are a major sources of danger, particularly along transportation routes. Thus, the assessment of their occurrence is a major challenge for risk management. One interesting factor involved in the occurrence of an event is the failure mechanism of rock bridges along the potential failure plane. This work proposes to study the phenomenology of this failure considering numerical modelling. The influence of rock bridge position in regard to the rockfall failure mode is highlighted.
Mylène Jacquemart and Kristy Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 629–642,Short summary
We used interferometric radar coherence – a data quality indicator typically used to assess the reliability of radar interferometry data – to document the destabilization of the Mud Creek landslide in California, 5 months prior to its catastrophic failure. We calculated a time series of coherence on the slide relative to the surrounding hillslope and suggest that this easy-to-compute metric might be useful for assessing the stability of a hillslope.
Zongxing Zou, Huiming Tang, Robert E. Criss, Xinli Hu, Chengren Xiong, Qiong Wu, and Yi Yuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 517–532,Short summary
The evolutionary trend of deforming landslides and feasible treatments for huge reservoir landslides needs further study. A geomechanical model is presented to elucidate the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides. The deformation process of Shuping landslide is well interpreted by the geomechanical model. A successful engineering treatment is applied in treating the Shuping landslide, providing references for treating other huge landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
Sansar Raj Meena, Florian Albrecht, Daniel Hölbling, Omid Ghorbanzadeh, and Thomas Blaschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 301–316,Short summary
Comprehensive and sustainable landslide management, including identification of landslide-susceptible areas, requires a lot of organisations and people to collaborate efficiently. In this study, we propose a concept for a system that provides users with a platform to share the location of landslide events for further collaboration in Nepal. The system can be beneficial for specifying potentially risky regions and consequently, the development of risk mitigation strategies at the local level.
Séverine Bernardie, Rosalie Vandromme, Yannick Thiery, Thomas Houet, Marine Grémont, Florian Masson, Gilles Grandjean, and Isabelle Bouroullec
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 147–169,Short summary
The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100. The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content. The results indicate that the occurrence of landslide hazards in the future is expected to increase.
Lorenzo Marchi, Federico Cazorzi, Massimo Arattano, Sara Cucchiaro, Marco Cavalli, and Stefano Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 87–97,Short summary
Debris-flow research requires experimental data that are difficult to collect because of the intrinsic characteristics of these hazardous processes. This paper presents debris-flow data recorded in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019. In this time interval, 30 debris flows were observed. The paper presents data on triggering rainfall, flow velocity, peak discharge, and volume for the monitored hydrographs.
Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric dataset combined with landslide inventories to investigate the role of snowmelt in landslide triggering, define thresholds of atmospheric triggers, and characterize climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
J. Bastian Dost, Oliver Gronz, Markus C. Casper, and Andreas Krein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3501–3519,Short summary
We show the potential to observe the unconfined internal-motion behaviour of single clasts in landslides using a wireless sensor measuring acceleration and rotation. The probe's dimensions are 10 mm × 55 mm. It measures up to 16 g and 2000° s−1 with a 100 Hz sampling rate. From the data, we derive transport mode, velocity, displacement and 3D trajectories of several probes. Results are verified by high-speed image analysis and laser distance measurements.
Gioachino Roberti, Jacob McGregor, Sharon Lam, David Bigelow, Blake Boyko, Chris Ahern, Victoria Wang, Bryan Barnhart, Clinton Smyth, David Poole, and Stephen Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3455–3483,Short summary
We show how INSPIRE, the European initiative to standardize data across borders, can be used to produce explainable AI-based applications. We do so by producing landslide susceptibility maps for the Veneto region in Italy. EU countries are mandated by law to implement the INSPIRE data framework by 2021, but they are aligning and serving INSPIRE data at a slow pace. Our paper can provide a boost to INSPIRE implementation as it shows the value of standardized data.
Robert Emberson, Dalia Kirschbaum, and Thomas Stanley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3413–3424,Short summary
Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution.
Thierry Oppikofer, Reginald L. Hermanns, Vegard U. Jakobsen, Martina Böhme, Pierrick Nicolet, and Ivanna Penna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3179–3196,Short summary
Damming of rivers is an important secondary effect of landslides due to upstream flooding and possible outburst floods in case of dam failure. For preliminary regional hazard and risk assessment of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway, we developed semi-empirical relationships to assess the height and stability of dams based on an inventory of 69 dams formed by rock slope failures in southwestern Norway and published landslide dam inventories from other parts of the world.
Wentao Yang, Lianyou Liu, and Peijun Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3215–3224,Short summary
We analysed deformation of a moving slope along the Jinsha River from November 2015 to November 2019. The slope is 80 km downstream from the famous Baige landslide, which caused two mega floods affecting downstream communities. This slope was relatively stable for the first 3 years (2015–2018) but moved significantly in the last year (2018–2019). The deformation is linked to seasonal precipitation. If this slope continues to slide downwards, it may have similar impacts to the Baige landslide.
Katy Burrows, Richard J. Walters, David Milledge, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3197–3214,Short summary
Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.
Elisa Bozzolan, Elizabeth Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3161–3177,Short summary
We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slope properties and precipitation events (including climate change). The dominant failure processes are identified, and their relative role in slope failure is quantified. A new rainfall threshold is assessed for urbanised slopes. Instability
rulesare provided to recognise urbanised slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for regions with scarce field measurements and landslide inventories.
Wen Zhang, Jia Wang, Peihua Xu, Junqing Lou, Bo Shan, Fengyan Wang, Chen Cao, Xiaoxue Chen, and Jinsheng Que
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2921–2935,Short summary
Slope failure is extremely common in mountainous areas. Therefore, the stability and potential failure of slopes must be analysed accurately. For most fractured rock slopes, the aforementioned analyses are considerably challenging. This study aims to propose a comprehensive approach that combines three well-established methods to conduct the aformentioned analyses. Finally, the critical slip surface, factor of safety, and accumulation distance are selected for safety assurance in slope analysis.
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919,Short summary
Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Baoqin Lian, Xingang Wang, Jianbing Peng, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2843–2856,
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2547–2565,Short summary
Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and in-field damage evidence was found.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESSShort summary
The Köfels Rock Slide in the Ötztal Valley (Tyrol, Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid landslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene 9527–9498 cal BP. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa, Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio, Natalia Garrido-Urzua, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2319–2333,Short summary
This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2307–2317,Short summary
In the Canary Islands, a link between rainfall and rockfall occurrence is found for most of the year, except for the warm season. Empirical rainfall thresholds for rockfalls are first proposed for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and the dependence of the thresholds on the mean annual rainfall is discussed. The use of thresholds in early-warning systems might contribute to the mitigation of the rockfall hazard in the archipelago and reduce the associated risk.
Nan Wang, Luigi Lombardo, Marj Tonini, Weiming Cheng, Liang Guo, and Junnan Xiong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
This study exploits 66 years of flash flood disasters across China. The conclusions are as follows: 1. The clustering procedure highlights distinct spatial and temporal patterns of flash flood disasters at different scales. 2. There are distinguished seasonal, yearly, and even long-term flash flood persisting behaviors of flash flood disasters. 3. The decreased duration of clusters in the recent period indicates a possible activation induced by short-duration extreme rainfall events.
Sandro Rossato, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Silvana Martin, Alfio Viganò, Christof Vockenhuber, Manuel Rigo, Giovanni Monegato, Marco De Zorzi, Nicola Surian, Paolo Campedel, and Paolo Mozzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2157–2174,Short summary
Rock avalanches are extremely dangerous, causing much damage worldwide. The
Masiere di Vedanais a rock avalanche deposit (9 km2, 170 Mm3) in NE Italy. We dated it back to late Roman to early Middle Ages. Identified drivers are the overall structural setting, exceptional rainfall events and seismic shakings. No exceptional event is required as a trigger. When dealing with heavily deformed bedrocks, especially in inhabited areas, the occurrence of a huge event like this must be considered.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930,Short summary
We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Meng Lu, Jie Zhang, Lulu Zhang, and Limin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1833–1846,Short summary
When analyzing the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles, the spacing between vehicles and the vehicle types on the highway can be highly uncertain. Using a highway slope case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method to assess the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; the method allows for the investigation of the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the landslide and provides a new guideline for highway slope design.
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461,Short summary
We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367,Short summary
Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.
Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
In this paper was examined in deep the relation between the intensity of meteorological events and the magnitude of the triggered hydrogeological issues. An extended back analysis was developed across a region of Central Alps. The meteorological triggers were interpreted using twofold approaches: the classical approach considering rain gauges and a new one considering meteorological reanalysis maps. The results were correlated with the estimated magnitude of each hydrogeological events.
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334,Short summary
Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319,Short summary
We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the rainfall-induced translational landslides.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Songling Han, Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan, and Yiao Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1287–1304,Short summary
The present study built a semi-quantitative classification and susceptibility assessment method for a study area, combining multiple mathematical methods and 3S technologies. The results have been verified with field investigation and other evaluation methods. Different methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and some methods are complementary to a certain extent, so it is desirable to enhance the rationality of the application through the combination of multiple methods.
Germán Aguilar, Albert Cabré, Victor Fredes, and Bruno Villela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1247–1265,Short summary
We have calculated erosion caused by an extreme storm in the Atacama Desert. Erosion distribution depends on the ability of catchments to store sediments in stream networks between storms and generate debris flows during the storm. The order of magnitude of erosion is the same as the erosion rates calculated over the long term, so these storms have a relevant influence on the evolution of these arid fluvial systems.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829,Short summary
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Dayu Yu, Liyu Tang, and Chongcheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 727–741,Short summary
In recent years, dam-break accidents in tailing ponds have happened frequently, which has resulted in verified loss of life and ecological disaster. Simulation of a tailing dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailing flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a 3-D CFD approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain.
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Yu Zou, Zhuping Sheng, and Blanca S. Zamora
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 713–726,Short summary
Coseismic landslides often cause loss of life and property damage. Accurately mapping hazards is very important and challenging work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface unloading joint and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is verified using the Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014 and compared with a conventional Newmark analysis using area under the curve analysis.
Sheng Fu, Lixia Chen, Tsehaie Woldai, Kunlong Yin, Lei Gui, Deying Li, Juan Du, Chao Zhou, Yong Xu, and Zhipeng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 581–601,Short summary
In this study, we conducted a more detailed semiquantitative landslide risk assessment at a community level and scale of 1 : 10 000. In this manner, the case study computed the loss of lives and properties for each slope. The proposed procedure proved to be more useful in complementing risk assessment on the small scale of 100 000 in western Hubei, China.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520,Short summary
Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
Jalal Samia, Arnaud Temme, Arnold Bregt, Jakob Wallinga, Fausto Guzzetti, and Francesca Ardizzone
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 271–285,Short summary
For the Collazzone study area in Italy, we quantified how much landslides follow others using Ripley's K function, finding that susceptibility is increased within 60 m and 17 years after a previous landslide. We then calculated the increased susceptibility for every pixel and for the 17-time-slice landslide inventory. We used these as additional explanatory variables in susceptibility modelling. Model performance increased substantially with this landslide history component included.
Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Claudia R. Calidonna, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–20,Short summary
A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfall, is proposed as an alternative to methods for containment or deviation that could cause future disasters. It is based on controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds, as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, and erosion of lahars that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador, is shown.
Sandra Melzner, Nurit Shtober-Zisu, Oded Katz, and Lea Wittenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2879–2885,Short summary
In the eastern Alps, no work on post-wildfire rockfall activity and risk has been published so far. The present work describes a wildfire that occurred in August 2018 in a famous world heritage site in Austria. Indicators of fire severity and rockfall occurrence during and after the fire are described. Future research needs are defined in order to raise awareness about the implementation of a new research focus in the Alpine region.
Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2477–2495,Short summary
Identifying landslide hazards is challenging but important for understanding risks to people and both built and natural resources. We use models to identify landslide hazards based on observed landslides and local site traits such as slope and on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating both approaches improves hazard detection by accounting for processes not captured in the physically based model. Hazard maps are made for the North Cascades National Park Complex (Washington, USA).
Adel Albaba, Massimiliano Schwarz, Corinna Wendeler, Bernard Loup, and Luuk Dorren
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2339–2358,Short summary
We present a discrete-element-based model which is adapted and used to produce hillslope debris flows. The model parameters were calibrated using field experiments, and a very good agreement was found in terms of pressure and flow velocity. Calibration results suggested that a link might exist between the model parameters and the initial conditions of the granular material. However, to better understand this link, further investigations are required by conducting detailed lab-scale experiments.
Zac Sala, D. Jean Hutchinson, and Rob Harrap
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2385–2404,Short summary
The work carried out for this study is part of a collaborative research program studying the impact of ground hazards on transportation infrastructure in Canada. The focus of the paper is the testing and application of a new simulation technique which can model the movement of falling rock material. These initial tests show that our simulation technique is capable of reproducing material accumulations from rockfall events which occurred above a section of railway in British Columbia, Canada.
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In order to address a need for a debris flow or debris avalanche model that can be applied regionally with relatively few inputs, we developed and present herein an agent-based landslide-simulation model called DebrisFlow Predictor. DebrisFlow Predictor is a fully predictive, probabilistic debris flow runout model. It produces realistic results and can be applied easily to entire regions. We hope that the model will provide useful insight into hazard and risk assessments where it is applicable.
In order to address a need for a debris flow or debris avalanche model that can be applied...