Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–20, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–20, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020

Research article 02 Jan 2020

Research article | 02 Jan 2020

From examination of natural events to a proposal for risk mitigation of lahars by a cellular-automata methodology: a case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador

Valeria Lupiano et al.

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Cited articles

Aguilera, E., Pareschi, M. T., Rosi, M., and Zanchetta, G.: Risk from lahars in the northern valleys of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador), Nat. Hazards, 33, 161–189, 2004. 
Avolio, M. V., Crisci G. M., Di Gregorio, S., Rongo R., Spataro, W., and Trunfio, G. A.: SCIARA γ2: an improved Cellular Automata model for Lava Flows and Applications to the 2002 Etnean crisis, Comput. Geosci., 32, 897–911, 2006. 
Avolio, M. V., Lupiano, V., Mazzanti, P., and Di Gregorio, S.: Modelling combined subaerial-subaqueous flow-like landslides by Cellular Automata, in: ACRI 2008, edited by: Umeo, H., Morishita, S., Nishinari, K., Komatsuzaki, T., and Bandini, S., LNCS 5191, 329–336, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany, 2008. 
Avolio, M. V., Di Gregorio, S., Spataro, W., and Trunfio, G. A.: A theorem about the algorithm of minimization of differences for multicomponent cellular automata, in: ACRI 2012, edited by: Sirakoulis, G. C. and Bandini, S., LNCS 7495, 289–298, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany, 2012. 
Avolio, M. V., Di Gregorio, S., Lupiano, V., and Mazzanti, P.: SCIDDICA-SS3: a new version of cellular automata model for simulating fast moving landslides, J. Supercomput., 65, 682–696, 2013. 
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A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfall, is proposed as an alternative to methods for containment or deviation that could cause future disasters. It is based on controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds, as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, and erosion of lahars that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador, is shown.
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