Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 577–593, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-577-2016

Special issue: Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 577–593, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-577-2016
Research article
29 Feb 2016
Research article | 29 Feb 2016

Tsunami hazard warning and risk prediction based on inaccurate earthquake source parameters

Katsuichiro Goda and Kamilla Abilova

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Cited articles

Cyranoski, D.: Japan's tsunami warning system retreats, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/news.2011.477, 2011.
Fraser, S., Pomonis, A., Raby, A., Goda, K., Chian, S. C., Macabuag, J., Offord, M., Saito, K., and Sammonds, P.: Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 Mw9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 11, 205–239, 2013.
Fukutani, Y., Suppasri, A., and Imamura, F.: Stochastic analysis and uncertainty assessment of tsunami wave height using a random source parameter model that targets a Tohoku-type earthquake fault, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 29, 1763–1779, 2015.
Geist, E. L. and Parsons, T.: Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards, Nat. Hazards, 37, 277–314, 2006.
Goda, K. and Song, J.: Uncertainty modeling and visualization for tsunami hazard and risk mapping: a case study for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1146-x, 2016.
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Short summary
This study investigates the issues related to underestimation of earthquake magnitude in the context of tsunami early warning and tsunami risk assessment. The investigation is motivated by the past case of early warning performance and consequences during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. The quantitative tsunami loss results provide with valuable insights regarding the importance of deriving accurate seismic information as well as the potential biases of the anticipated tsunami consequences.
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