Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards
Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards
Editor(s): T. Wagener, R. E. Chandler, R. Lamb, I. Main, and B. Merz
This special issue will showcase new approaches for estimating risk and uncertainty in the field of natural hazards and their adaptation to the specific needs of the field. We are looking for papers that help to increase consistency and scientific rigour regarding the estimation of uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment. In doing so, it will enhance the capacity, knowledge and skills of stakeholders from private and public sector organisations, and improve societal security through better and more consistent decision-making in the context of uncertainty. This special issue is open to all submissions within the scope stated above.

Download citations of all papers

24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas
Keith J. Beven, Susana Almeida, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Sarka Blazkova, Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Freer, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, David B. Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener, Matt Watson, and Kate L. Wilkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2741–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018, 2018
Short summary
24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?
Keith J. Beven, Willy P. Aspinall, Paul D. Bates, Edoardo Borgomeo, Katsuichiro Goda, Jim W. Hall, Trevor Page, Jeremy C. Phillips, Michael Simpson, Paul J. Smith, Thorsten Wagener, and Matt Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2769–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018, 2018
Short summary
27 Mar 2018
A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale
Shaojie Zhang, Luqiang Zhao, Ricardo Delgado-Tellez, and Hongjun Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 969–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-969-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-969-2018, 2018
04 Jan 2018
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
11 Aug 2017
Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop
Rob Lamb, Willy Aspinall, Henry Odbert, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017, 2017
Short summary
03 Jul 2017
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, Abdelkader Mezghani, and Anita V. Dyrrdal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 993–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017, 2017
Short summary
21 Mar 2017
The influence of an extended Atlantic hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the southeastern United States
Monica H. Stone and Sagy Cohen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 439–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-439-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-439-2017, 2017
Short summary
20 Mar 2017
Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal
Paul J. Smith, Sarah Brown, and Sumit Dugar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 423–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-423-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-423-2017, 2017
Short summary
17 Mar 2017
Assessment of reliability of extreme wave height prediction models
Satish Samayam, Valentina Laface, Sannasiraj Sannasi Annamalaisamy, Felice Arena, Sundar Vallam, and Polnikov Vladislav Gavrilovich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 409–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-409-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-409-2017, 2017
21 Feb 2017
Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change
Susana Almeida, Elizabeth Ann Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017, 2017
Short summary
21 Nov 2016
An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses
Tobias Pardowitz, Robert Osinski, Tim Kruschke, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, 2016
Short summary
29 Aug 2016
The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms
Laura C. Dawkins, David B. Stephenson, Julia F. Lockwood, and Paul E. Maisey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1999–2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016, 2016
Short summary
29 Feb 2016
Tsunami hazard warning and risk prediction based on inaccurate earthquake source parameters
Katsuichiro Goda and Kamilla Abilova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 577–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-577-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-577-2016, 2016
Short summary
CC BY 4.0