Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: Different natural hazard areas
- 1Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
- 2Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- 3Department of Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
- 4School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
- 5School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
- 6T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
- 7Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, UK
- 8Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
- 9Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- 1Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
- 2Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- 3Department of Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
- 4School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
- 5School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
- 6T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
- 7Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, UK
- 8Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
- 9Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Abstract. This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.
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K. J. Beven et al.
Interactive discussion


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SC1: 'Epistemic uncertainty and rainfall thresholds', Stefano Luigi Gariano, 15 Feb 2016
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RC1: 'NHESS paper review', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Feb 2016
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RC1: 'NHESS paper review', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Feb 2016
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RC2: 'Review of seismic hazard section', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Feb 2016
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EC1: 'Editor's comments on version 1', Richard Chandler, 13 Mar 2016
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AC1: 'Response to Referees' Comments', Keith Beven, 31 Jul 2016
Interactive discussion


-
SC1: 'Epistemic uncertainty and rainfall thresholds', Stefano Luigi Gariano, 15 Feb 2016
-
RC1: 'NHESS paper review', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Feb 2016
-
RC1: 'NHESS paper review', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Feb 2016
-
RC2: 'Review of seismic hazard section', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Feb 2016
-
EC1: 'Editor's comments on version 1', Richard Chandler, 13 Mar 2016
-
AC1: 'Response to Referees' Comments', Keith Beven, 31 Jul 2016
K. J. Beven et al.
K. J. Beven et al.
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Cited
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A Vulnerability‐Based, Bottom‐up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks‐Over‐Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model J. Knighton et al. 10.1002/2017WR021036
- Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification A. Tadini et al. 10.1002/2016JB013860