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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">NHESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">NHESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2195-9269</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/nhess-2015-295</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment &amp;ndash; Part 2: Different natural hazard areas</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beven</surname>
<given-names>K. J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7465-3934</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Almeida</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3539-5578</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aspinall</surname>
<given-names>W. P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6014-6042</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bates</surname>
<given-names>P. D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9192-9963</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Blazkova</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Borgomeo</surname>
<given-names>E.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Goda</surname>
<given-names>K.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3900-2153</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Phillips</surname>
<given-names>J. C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Simpson</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smith</surname>
<given-names>P. J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0034-3412</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stephenson</surname>
<given-names>D. B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wagener</surname>
<given-names>T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3881-5849</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watson</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wilkins</surname>
<given-names>K. L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7276-450X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>T. G. Masaryk Water Resource Institute, Prague, Czech Republic</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Exeter University, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2016</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>74</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2016 K. J. Beven et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2016</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2015-295/">This article is available from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2015-295/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2015-295/nhess-2015-295.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2015-295/nhess-2015-295.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in
a number of different natural hazard areas including floods,
landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes,
tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind
storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties
in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to
an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the
hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses
might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of
assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to
reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since
every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made
about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also
important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the
companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="74"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/J017299/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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