Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2245–2270, 2017
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2245–2270, 2017

Research article 12 Dec 2017

Research article | 12 Dec 2017

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

Ario Muhammad1,2, Katsuichiro Goda1, Nicholas A. Alexander1, Widjo Kongko3, and Abdul Muhari4 Ario Muhammad et al.
  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
  • 2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Narotama, Surabaya, 60117, Indonesia
  • 3Agency for the Assessment & Application of Technology (BPPT), Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia
  • 4Directorate General for Marine Spatial Management, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Jakarta, 10110, Indonesia

Abstract. This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Short summary
This study develops tsunami evacuation plan in Padang, Indonesia, known as one of the most affected areas due to the future tsunami events generated from the Sunda subduction zone. The evacuation plan is constructed using probabilistic earthquake source modelling considering all the uncertainty of the future events. The results show that probabilistic approach may produce comprehensive tsunami hazard assessments which can be used for building more reliable and robust evacuation plans.
Final-revised paper