Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022
Research article
24 Oct 2022
Research article | 24 Oct 2022

Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia

Annalie Dorph et al.

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Cited articles

Archibald, S., Roy, D. P., van Wilgen, B. W., and Scholes, R. J.: What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa, Global Change Biol., 15, 613–630, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01754.x, 2009. 
Bar Massada, A., Syphard, A. D., Stewart, S. I., and Radeloff, V. C.: Wildfire ignition-distribution modelling: a comparative study in the Huron–Manistee National Forest, Michigan, USA, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 22, 174–183, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF11178, 2013.  
Blanchi, R., Lucas, C., Leonard, J., Finkele, K., Blanchi, R., Lucas, C., Leonard, J., and Finkele, K.: Meteorological conditions and wildfire-related houseloss in Australia, Int. J. Wildl. Fire, 19, 914–926, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08175, 2010. 
Bradstock, R., Penman, T., Boer, M., Price, O., and Clarke, H.: Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south-eastern Australia, Global Change Biol., 20, 1412–1428, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12449, 2014. 
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Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
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