Modelling ignition probability for human- and  lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia

Dorph, Annalie; Marshall, Erica; Parkins, Kate A.; Penman, Trent D.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 10

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, 2022

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 10

Research article

24 Oct 2022

Research article | 24 Oct 2022

Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia

Annalie Dorph et al.

Data sets

Native Vegetation Regulation Extent Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/native-vegetation-regulation-extent-20171

Short summary

Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.