Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Oct 2022
Research article |
| 24 Oct 2022
| 24 Oct 2022
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences,
University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia
Erica Marshall
FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences,
University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
Kate A. Parkins
FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences,
University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
Trent D. Penman
FLARE Wildfire Research, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences,
University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
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Total article views: 2,692 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Total article views: 789 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Influence of Socioeconomic Factors on Human Wildfire Ignitions in the Pacific Northwest, USA C. Reilley et al. 10.3390/fire6080300
- Factors Affecting the Adoption of Wildfire Management Technology in Ghana I. Nunoo et al. 10.11648/j.ijnrem.20240902.13
- Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning‐Caused Fires K. Rao et al. 10.1029/2022GL100975
- Future wildfires increase the risk of the residential insurance gap S. Elliot-Kerr et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105814
- Pyrogeographic analysis of drivers of lightning-ignited wildfires in Tasmania A. Wickramasinghe et al. 10.1071/WF24202
- An Integrated Grassland Fire-Danger-Assessment System for a Mountainous National Park Using Geospatial Modelling Techniques O. Mofokeng et al. 10.3390/fire7020061
- What does it take to survive? An expert elicitation approach to understanding the drivers of fire Refugia occurrence and persistence T. Penman et al. 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111257
- Wildfire Risk Assessment in Ambato, Ecuador: Drought Impacts, Fuel Dynamics, and Wildland–Urban Interface Vulnerability A. Hidalgo et al. 10.3390/fire8040130
- Human-caused ignition pathways under climate change scenarios in Eastern Spain P. Gelabert et al. 10.1080/19475705.2025.2472864
- Climate, vegetation, people: disentangling the controls of fire at different timescales S. Harrison et al. 10.1098/rstb.2023.0464
- Lightning-Induced Wildfires: An Overview Y. Song et al. 10.3390/fire7030079
- An Empirical Modelling and Simulation Framework for Fire Events Initiated by Vegetation and Electricity Network Interactions R. Wilson et al. 10.3390/fire6020061
- Scenario-Based Wildfire Boundary-Threat Indexing at the Wildland–Urban Interface Using Dynamic Fire Simulations Y. Matey et al. 10.3390/fire8100377
- A global database on holdover time of lightning-ignited wildfires J. Moris et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023
- Modeling stand fire probabilities with unobserved heterogeneity. Estimating stand age and climate change effects in Chilean radiata pine plantations M. Niklitsckek & R. Labbé 10.1139/cjfr-2024-0082
- Shifting fire regimes cause continent-wide transformation of threatened species habitat T. Doherty et al. 10.1073/pnas.2316417121
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Influence of Socioeconomic Factors on Human Wildfire Ignitions in the Pacific Northwest, USA C. Reilley et al. 10.3390/fire6080300
- Factors Affecting the Adoption of Wildfire Management Technology in Ghana I. Nunoo et al. 10.11648/j.ijnrem.20240902.13
- Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning‐Caused Fires K. Rao et al. 10.1029/2022GL100975
- Future wildfires increase the risk of the residential insurance gap S. Elliot-Kerr et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105814
- Pyrogeographic analysis of drivers of lightning-ignited wildfires in Tasmania A. Wickramasinghe et al. 10.1071/WF24202
- An Integrated Grassland Fire-Danger-Assessment System for a Mountainous National Park Using Geospatial Modelling Techniques O. Mofokeng et al. 10.3390/fire7020061
- What does it take to survive? An expert elicitation approach to understanding the drivers of fire Refugia occurrence and persistence T. Penman et al. 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111257
- Wildfire Risk Assessment in Ambato, Ecuador: Drought Impacts, Fuel Dynamics, and Wildland–Urban Interface Vulnerability A. Hidalgo et al. 10.3390/fire8040130
- Human-caused ignition pathways under climate change scenarios in Eastern Spain P. Gelabert et al. 10.1080/19475705.2025.2472864
- Climate, vegetation, people: disentangling the controls of fire at different timescales S. Harrison et al. 10.1098/rstb.2023.0464
- Lightning-Induced Wildfires: An Overview Y. Song et al. 10.3390/fire7030079
- An Empirical Modelling and Simulation Framework for Fire Events Initiated by Vegetation and Electricity Network Interactions R. Wilson et al. 10.3390/fire6020061
- Scenario-Based Wildfire Boundary-Threat Indexing at the Wildland–Urban Interface Using Dynamic Fire Simulations Y. Matey et al. 10.3390/fire8100377
- A global database on holdover time of lightning-ignited wildfires J. Moris et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1151-2023
- Modeling stand fire probabilities with unobserved heterogeneity. Estimating stand age and climate change effects in Chilean radiata pine plantations M. Niklitsckek & R. Labbé 10.1139/cjfr-2024-0082
- Shifting fire regimes cause continent-wide transformation of threatened species habitat T. Doherty et al. 10.1073/pnas.2316417121
Latest update: 15 Oct 2025
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture....
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