Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Research article
 | 
24 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 24 Oct 2022

Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia

Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman

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Latest update: 13 Mar 2025
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Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
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