Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1697-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 May 2024
Research article |
| 14 May 2024
| 14 May 2024
Assessing landslide damming susceptibility in Central Asia
Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, via G. la Pira 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
UNESCO Chair on the Prevention and Sustainable Management of Geo-Hydrological Hazards, University of Florence, Largo Fermi 2, 50125 Florence, Italy
William Frodella
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, via G. la Pira 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
UNESCO Chair on the Prevention and Sustainable Management of Geo-Hydrological Hazards, University of Florence, Largo Fermi 2, 50125 Florence, Italy
Francesco Caleca
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, via G. la Pira 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
UNESCO Chair on the Prevention and Sustainable Management of Geo-Hydrological Hazards, University of Florence, Largo Fermi 2, 50125 Florence, Italy
Zhanar Raimbekova
Institute of Seismology of Republic of Kazakhstan (IS), Almaty, Kazakhstan
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al-Farabi ave. 71, A15E3C7 Almaty, Kazakhstan
Ruslan Umaraliev
Institute of Seismology of the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic (ISNASKR), Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
Veronica Tofani
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, via G. la Pira 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
UNESCO Chair on the Prevention and Sustainable Management of Geo-Hydrological Hazards, University of Florence, Largo Fermi 2, 50125 Florence, Italy
Related authors
Teresa Salvatici, Veronica Tofani, Guglielmo Rossi, Michele D'Ambrosio, Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, Elena Benedetta Masi, Ascanio Rosi, Veronica Pazzi, Pietro Vannocci, Miriana Petrolo, Filippo Catani, Sara Ratto, Hervè Stevenin, and Nicola Casagli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1919–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1919-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the application of the physically based HIRESSS model (High Resolution Stability Simulator) to forecast the occurrence of shallow landslides in a portion of the Aosta Valley region (Italy). An in-depth study of the geotechnical and hydrological properties of the hillslopes controlling shallow landslides formation was conducted, in order to generate an input map of parameters. The main aim of this study is to set up a regional landslide early warning system.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Teresa Salvatici, Veronica Tofani, Guglielmo Rossi, Michele D'Ambrosio, Carlo Tacconi Stefanelli, Elena Benedetta Masi, Ascanio Rosi, Veronica Pazzi, Pietro Vannocci, Miriana Petrolo, Filippo Catani, Sara Ratto, Hervè Stevenin, and Nicola Casagli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1919–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1919-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1919-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present the application of the physically based HIRESSS model (High Resolution Stability Simulator) to forecast the occurrence of shallow landslides in a portion of the Aosta Valley region (Italy). An in-depth study of the geotechnical and hydrological properties of the hillslopes controlling shallow landslides formation was conducted, in order to generate an input map of parameters. The main aim of this study is to set up a regional landslide early warning system.
William Frodella, Teresa Salvatici, Veronica Pazzi, Stefano Morelli, and Riccardo Fanti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1779-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1779-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A local scale GB-InSAR system was implemented for mapping and monitoring slope landslide residual deformations and for early warning purposes in case of landslide reactivations, with the aim of assuring the safety of the valley inhabitants and the personnel involved in the post-event recovery phase. The here presented methodology could represent a useful contribution to a better understanding of landslide phenomena and decision making process during the post-emergency management activities.
Guglielmo Rossi, Luca Tanteri, Veronica Tofani, Pietro Vannocci, Sandro Moretti, and Nicola Casagli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-46, 2017
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
The Department of Earth Sciences of Florence (DST) has developed a new type of drone chassis that has been equipped with an optical camera to map landslides. The images acquired during the aerial drone surveys allowed to obtain a continuous 3D surface model of the studied area using a photogrammetric approach.The drone survey has proven to be an easier and more cost- and time-effective approach with respect to other techniques to mpa landslides.
F. Catani, D. Lagomarsino, S. Segoni, and V. Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2815–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2815-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2815-2013, 2013
P. Mercogliano, S. Segoni, G. Rossi, B. Sikorsky, V. Tofani, P. Schiano, F. Catani, and N. Casagli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 771–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-771-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-771-2013, 2013
V. Tofani, S. Segoni, A. Agostini, F. Catani, and N. Casagli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 299–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-299-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-299-2013, 2013
G. Rossi, F. Catani, L. Leoni, S. Segoni, and V. Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 151–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-151-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-151-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Addressing class imbalance in soil movement predictions
Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data
Analysis of three-dimensional slope stability combined with rainfall and earthquake
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Characteristics of debris-flow-prone watersheds and debris-flow-triggering rainstorms following the Tadpole Fire, New Mexico, USA
Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China
Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Optimization strategy for flexible barrier structures: investigation and back analysis of a rockfall disaster case in southwestern China
InSAR-Informed In-Situ Monitoring for Deep-Seated Landslides: Insights from El Forn (Andorra)
Numerical-model-derived intensity–duration thresholds for early warning of rainfall-induced debris flows in a Himalayan catchment
Slope Unit Maker (SUMak): an efficient and parameter-free algorithm for delineating slope units to improve landslide modeling
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
A new analytical method for stability analysis of rock blocks with basal erosion in sub-horizontal strata by considering the eccentricity effect
A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence
Rockfall monitoring with a Doppler radar on an active rockslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls (Switzerland)
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh-Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications
The concept of event-size-dependent exhaustion and its application to paraglacial rockslides
Coastal earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand
Characteristics of debris flows recorded in the Shenmu area of central Taiwan between 2004 and 2021
Semi-automatic mapping of shallow landslides using free Sentinel-2 images and Google Earth Engine
The role of thermokarst evolution in debris flow initiation (Hüttekar Rock Glacier, Austrian Alps)
Accounting for the effect of forest and fragmentation in probabilistic rockfall hazard
Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia
The influence of large woody debris on post-wildfire debris flow sediment storage
Statistical modeling of sediment supply in torrent catchments of the northern French Alps
A data-driven evaluation of post-fire landslide susceptibility
Deciphering seasonal effects of triggering and preparatory precipitation for improved shallow landslide prediction using generalized additive mixed models
Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster
Dynamic response and breakage of trees subject to a landslide-induced air blast
Debris-flow surges of a very active alpine torrent: a field database
Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Instantaneous limit equilibrium back analyses of major rockslides triggered during the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence
Deadly disasters in southeastern South America: flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
Multi-event assessment of typhoon-triggered landslide susceptibility in the Philippines
Antecedent rainfall as a critical factor for the triggering of debris flows in arid regions
Sensitivity analysis of a built environment exposed to the synthetic monophasic viscous debris flow impacts with 3-D numerical simulations
Characteristics and causes of natural and human-induced landslides in a tropical mountainous region: the rift flank west of Lake Kivu (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Spatio-temporal analysis of slope-type debris flow activity in Horlachtal, Austria, based on orthophotos and lidar data since 1947
Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management
Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Assessing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility predictions in a changing environment (Styrian Basin, Austria)
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Revised Infinite Slope Model (RISM) is proposed using the equal differential unit method and correcting the deficiency of the safety factor increasing with the slope increasing when the slope is larger than 40°, as calculated using the Taylor slope infinite model. The intensity–duration (I–D) prediction curve of the rainfall-induced shallow loess landslides with different slopes was constructed and can be used in forecasting regional shallow loess landslides.
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.
Praveen Kumar, Priyanka Priyanka, Kala Venkata Uday, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1913–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1913-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on predicting soil movement to mitigate landslide risks. We develop machine learning models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance in monitoring data. The dynamic ensemble model with K-means SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) achieves high precision, high recall, and a high F1 score. Our findings highlight the potential of these models with oversampling techniques to improve soil movement predictions in landslide-prone areas.
Kristian Svennevig, Julian Koch, Marie Keiding, and Gregor Luetzenburg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1897–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1897-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we analysed publicly available data in order to investigate the impact of climate change on landslides in Denmark. Our research indicates that the rising groundwater table due to climate change will result in an increase in landslide activity. Previous incidents of extremely wet winters have caused damage to infrastructure and buildings due to landslides. This study is the first of its kind to exclusively rely on public data and examine landslides in Denmark.
Jiao Wang, Zhangxing Wang, Guanhua Sun, and Hongming Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1741-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With a simplified formula linking rainfall and groundwater level, the rise of the phreatic surface within the slope can be obtained. Then, a global analysis method that considers both seepage and seismic forces is proposed to determine the safety factor of slopes subjected to the combined effect of rainfall and earthquakes. By taking a slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the safety evolution of the slope combined with both rainfall and earthquake is also examined.
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William H. Schulz, and Matthew J. Tello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1579–1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped potential for heavy rainfall to cause landslides in part of the central mountains of Puerto Rico using new tools for estimating soil depth and quasi-3D slope stability. Potential ground-failure locations correlate well with the spatial density of landslides from Hurricane Maria. The smooth boundaries of the very high and high ground-failure susceptibility zones enclose 75 % and 90 %, respectively, of observed landslides. The maps can help mitigate ground-failure hazards.
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1459–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are a type of fast-moving landslide that start from shallow landslides or during intense rain. Infrastructure located downstream of watersheds susceptible to debris flows may be damaged should a debris flow reach them. We present and evaluate an approach to forecast building damage caused by debris flows. We test three alternative models for simulating the motion of debris flows and find that only one can forecast the correct number and spatial pattern of damaged buildings.
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Ann M. Youberg, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Ryan Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1357–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1357-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, and Gentaro Kawakami
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Morphological conditions of drainage basins that classify the presence or absence of debris flow fans were analyzed in areas with different rock strength using decision tree analysis. The relief ratio is the most important morphological factor regardless of the geology. However, the thresholds of morphological parameters needed for forming debris flow fans differ depending on the geology. Decision tree analysis is an effective tool for evaluating the debris flow risk for each geology.
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed data from the Illgraben debris flow monitoring station, Switzerland, and we modelled these flows with a debris flow runout model. We found that no correlation exists between the grain size distribution, the mineralogical composition of the matrix, and the debris flow properties. The flow properties rather appear to be determined by the flow volume, from which most other parameters can be derived.
Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, and Minghui Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-891-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed three rock bridge models to analyze 3D stability and deformation behaviors of the Tizicao landslide and found that the contact surface model with high strength parameters combines advantages of the intact rock mass model in simulating the deformation of slopes with rock bridges and the modeling advantage of the Jennings model. The results help in choosing a rock bridge model to simulate landslide stability and reveal the influence laws of rock bridges on the stability of landslides.
Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, and Luigi Lombardo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 823–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-823-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a modeling approach capable of recognizing slopes that may generate landslides, as well as how large these mass movements may be. This protocol is implemented, tested, and validated with data that change in both space and time via an Ensemble Neural Network architecture.
Li-Ru Luo, Zhi-Xiang Yu, Li-Jun Zhang, Qi Wang, Lin-Xu Liao, and Li Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We performed field investigations on a rockfall near Jiguanshan National Forest Park, Chengdu. Vital information was obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. A finite element model was created to reproduce the damage evolution. We found that the impact kinetic energy was below the design protection energy. Improper member connections prevent the barrier from producing significant deformation to absorb energy. Damage is avoided by improving the ability of the nets and ropes to slide.
Rachael Lau, Carolina Seguí, Tyler Waterman, Nathaniel Chaney, and Manolis Veveakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01564, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01564, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) alongside in-situ borehole measurements to assess the stability of deep-seated landslides for the case study of El Forn (Andorra). InSAR data compared with borehole data suggests a key tradeoff between accuracy and precision for various InSAR resolutions. Spatial interpolation with InSAR informed how many remote observations are necessary to lower error on remote-sensing recreation of ground motion over the landslide.
Sudhanshu Dixit, Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian, Piyush Srivastava, Ali P. Yunus, Tapas Ranjan Martha, and Sumit Sen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 465–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-465-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds can aid in the prediction of natural hazards. Large-scale sediment disasters like landslides, debris flows, and flash floods happen frequently in the Himalayas because of their propensity for intense precipitation events. We provide a new framework that combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a regionally distributed numerical model for debris flows to analyse and predict intense rainfall-induced landslides in the Himalayas.
Jacob B. Woodard, Benjamin B. Mirus, Nathan J. Wood, Kate E. Allstadt, Benjamin A. Leshchinsky, and Matthew M. Crawford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dividing landscapes into hillslopes greatly improves predictions of landslide potential across landscapes, but their scaling is often arbitrarily set and can require significant computing power to delineate. Here, we present a new computer program that can efficiently divide landscapes into meaningful slope units scaled to best capture landslide processes. The results of this work will allow an improved understanding of landslide potential and can help reduce the impacts of landslides worldwide.
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of landslide susceptibility and of hydrological predictor variables to provide daily, global ensembles of hazard for hydrologically triggered landslides. Testing different hydrological predictors showed that the combination of rainfall and soil moisture performed best, with the lowest number of missed and false alarms. The ensemble approach allowed the estimation of the associated prediction uncertainty.
Xushan Shi, Bo Chai, Juan Du, Wei Wang, and Bo Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3425–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A 3D stability analysis method is proposed for biased rockfall with external erosion. Four failure modes are considered according to rockfall evolution processes, including partial damage of underlying soft rock and overall failure of hard rock blocks. This method is validated with the biased rockfalls in the Sichuan Basin, China. The critical retreat ratio from low to moderate rockfall susceptibility is 0.33. This method could facilitate rockfall early identification and risk mitigation.
Zhen Lei Wei, Yue Quan Shang, Qiu Hua Liang, and Xi Lin Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-180, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-180, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The initiation of debris flows is influenced significantly by rainfall-induced hydrological processes. We propose a novel framework, which is based on an integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic model, aimed at estimating Intensity-Duration (I-D) rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flows. In comparison to traditional statistical approaches, this physically-based framework particularly suitable for application in ungauged catchments where historical debris flow data is scarce.
Marius Schneider, Nicolas Oestreicher, Thomas Ehrat, and Simon Loew
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3337–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3337-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockfalls and their hazards are typically treated as statistical events based on rockfall catalogs, but only a few complete rockfall inventories are available today. Here, we present new results from a Doppler radar rockfall alarm system, which has operated since 2018 at a high frequency under all illumination and weather conditions at a site where frequent rockfall events threaten a village and road. The new data set is used to investigate rockfall triggers in an active rockslide complex.
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1975, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Himalayan road network links remote areas, but fragile terrain and poor construction lead to frequent landslides. This study on NH-7 in India's Uttarakhand region analyzed 300 landslides after heavy 2022 rainfall. Factors like slope, rainfall, rock type, and road work influence landslides. The study's model predicts landslide locations for better road maintenance planning, highlighting the risk from climate change and increased road use.
Annette I. Patton, Lisa V. Luna, Joshua J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, and Benjamin B. Mirus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide warning systems often use statistical models to predict landslides based on rainfall. They are typically trained on large datasets with many landslide occurrences, but in rural areas large datasets may not exist. In this study, we evaluate which statistical model types are best suited to predicting landslides and demonstrate that even a small landslide inventory (five storms) can be used to train useful models for landslide early warning when non-landslide events are also included.
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, and Mauro Rossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3079–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of the temporal frequency of the involved rockfall processes is an important part in hazard and risk assessments. Different methods can be used to collect and analyse rockfall data. From a statistical point of view, rockfall datasets are nearly always incomplete. Accurate data collection approaches and the application of statistical methods on existing rockfall data series as reported in this study should be better considered in rockfall hazard and risk assessments in the future.
Stefan Hergarten
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3051–3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3051-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rockslides are a major hazard in mountainous regions. In formerly glaciated regions, the disposition mainly arises from oversteepened topography and decreases through time. However, little is known about this decrease and thus about the present-day hazard of huge, potentially catastrophic rockslides. This paper presents a new theoretical framework that explains the decrease in maximum rockslide size through time and predicts the present-day frequency of large rockslides for the European Alps.
Colin K. Bloom, Corinne Singeisen, Timothy Stahl, Andrew Howell, Chris Massey, and Dougal Mason
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2987–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are often observed on coastlines following large earthquakes, but few studies have explored this occurrence. Here, statistical modelling of landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand is used to investigate factors driving coastal earthquake-induced landslides. Geology, steep slopes, and shaking intensity are good predictors of landslides from the Kaikōura event. Steeper slopes close to the coast provide the best explanation for a high landslide density.
Yi-Min Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2649–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2649-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are common hazards in Taiwan, and debris-flow early warning is important for disaster responses. The rainfall thresholds of debris flows are analyzed and determined in terms of rainfall intensity, accumulated rainfall, and rainfall duration, based on case histories in Taiwan. These thresholds are useful for disaster management, and the cases in Taiwan are useful for global debris-flow databases.
Davide Notti, Martina Cignetti, Danilo Godone, and Daniele Giordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2625–2648, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2625-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a cost-effective and user-friendly approach to map shallow landslides using free satellite data. Our methodology involves analysing the pre- and post-event NDVI variation to semi-automatically detect areas potentially affected by shallow landslides (PLs). Additionally, we have created Google Earth Engine scripts to rapidly compute NDVI differences and time series of affected areas. Datasets and codes are stored in an open data repository for improvement by the scientific community.
Simon Seelig, Thomas Wagner, Karl Krainer, Michael Avian, Marc Olefs, Klaus Haslinger, and Gerfried Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2547–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A rapid sequence of cascading events involving thermokarst lake outburst, rock glacier front failure, debris flow development, and river blockage hit an alpine valley in Austria during summer 2019. We analyze the environmental conditions initiating the process chain and identify the rapid evolution of a thermokarst channel network as the main driver. Our results highlight the need to account for permafrost degradation in debris flow hazard assessment studies.
Camilla Lanfranconi, Paolo Frattini, Gianluca Sala, Giuseppe Dattola, Davide Bertolo, Juanjuan Sun, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2349–2363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2349-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a study on rockfall dynamics and hazard, examining the impact of the presence of trees along slope and block fragmentation. We compared rockfall simulations that explicitly model the presence of trees and fragmentation with a classical approach that accounts for these phenomena in model parameters (both the hazard and the kinetic energy change). We also used a non-parametric probabilistic rockfall hazard analysis method for hazard mapping.
Ascanio Rosi, William Frodella, Nicola Nocentini, Francesco Caleca, Hans Balder Havenith, Alexander Strom, Mirzo Saidov, Gany Amirgalievich Bimurzaev, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work was carried out within the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) project and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. The most detailed available landslide inventories were implemented in a random forest model. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners, and administrators.
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Katherine R. Barnhart, Ann M. Youberg, Daniel Cadol, Alexander N. Gorr, Olivia J. Hoch, Rebecca Beers, and Jason W. Kean
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2075–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
Maxime Morel, Guillaume Piton, Damien Kuss, Guillaume Evin, and Caroline Le Bouteiller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1769–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1769-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In mountain catchments, damage during floods is generally primarily driven by the supply of a massive amount of sediment. Predicting how much sediment can be delivered by frequent and infrequent events is thus important in hazard studies. This paper uses data gathered during the maintenance operation of about 100 debris retention basins to build simple equations aiming at predicting sediment supply from simple parameters describing the upstream catchment.
Elsa S. Culler, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, and Kristy F. Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides have often been observed in the aftermath of wildfires. This study explores regional patterns in the rainfall that caused landslides both after fires and in unburned locations. In general, landslides that occur after fires are triggered by less rainfall, confirming that fire helps to set the stage for landslides. However, there are regional differences in the ways in which fire impacts landslides, such as the size and direction of shifts in the seasonality of landslides after fires.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Yaspal Sundriyal, Vipin Kumar, Neha Chauhan, Sameeksha Kaushik, Rahul Ranjan, and Mohit Kumar Punia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1425–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hillslopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hillslopes might reach up to 20–25 m.
Yu Zhuang, Aiguo Xing, Perry Bartelt, Muhammad Bilal, and Zhaowei Ding
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1257–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree destruction is often used to back calculate the air blast impact region and to estimate the air blast power. Here we established a novel model to assess air blast power using tree destruction information. We find that the dynamic magnification effect makes the trees easier to damage by a landslide-induced air blast, but the large tree deformation would weaken the effect. Bending and overturning are two likely failure modes, which depend heavily on the properties of trees.
Suzanne Lapillonne, Firmin Fontaine, Frédéric Liebault, Vincent Richefeu, and Guillaume Piton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1241–1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1241-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows are fast flows most often found in torrential watersheds. They are composed of two phases: a liquid phase which can be mud-like and a granular phase, including large boulders, transported along with the flow. Due to their destructive nature, accessing features of the flow, such as velocity and flow height, is difficult. We present a protocol to analyse debris flow data and results of the Réal torrent in France. These results will help experts in designing models.
Carlos Millán-Arancibia and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the first approximation of regional rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Peru. This research was generated from a gridded precipitation data and landslide inventory. The analysis showed that the threshold based on the combination of mean daily intensity–duration variables gives the best results for separating rainfall events that generate landslides. Through this work the potential of thresholds for landslide monitoring at the regional scale is demonstrated.
Luca Verrucci, Giovanni Forte, Melania De Falco, Paolo Tommasi, Giuseppe Lanzo, Kevin W. Franke, and Antonio Santo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1177–1190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1177-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stability analyses in static and seismic conditions were performed on four rockslides that occurred during the main shocks of the 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence. These results also indicate that specific structural features of the slope must carefully be accounted for in evaluating potential hazards on transportation infrastructures in mountainous regions.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Joshua N. Jones, Georgina L. Bennett, Claudia Abancó, Mark A. M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1095–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled where landslides occur in the Philippines using landslide data from three typhoon events in 2009, 2018, and 2019. These models show where landslides occurred within the landscape. By comparing the different models, we found that the 2019 landslides were occurring all across the landscape, whereas the 2009 and 2018 landslides were mostly occurring at specific slope angles and aspects. This shows that landslide susceptibility must be considered variable through space and time.
Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Xun Huang, Zhijian Zhang, and Guoping Xiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-871-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A sensitivity analysis on the building impact force resulting from the representative built environment parameters is executed through the FLOW-3D model. The surrounding buildings' properties, especially the azimuthal angle, have been confirmed to play significant roles in determining the peak impact forces. The single and combined effects of built environments are analyzed in detail. This will improve understanding of vulnerability assessment and migration design against debris flow hazards.
Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, Charles L. Bielders, Elise Monsieurs, Arthur Depicker, Benoît Smets, Théophile Tambala, Luc Bagalwa Mateso, and Olivier Dewitte
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 643–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Also, this study highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides and hence the added value of using historical information for compiling an inventory.
Jakob Rom, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Moritz Altmann, Fabian Fleischer, Camillo Ressl, Sarah Betz-Nutz, and Michael Becht
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 601–622, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-601-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, an area-wide slope-type debris flow record has been established for Horlachtal, Austria, since 1947 based on historical and recent remote sensing data. Spatial and temporal analyses show variations in debris flow activity in space and time in a high-alpine region. The results can contribute to a better understanding of past slope-type debris flow dynamics in the context of extreme precipitation events and their possible future development.
Tom Birien and Francis Gauthier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On highly fractured rockwalls such as those found in northern Gaspésie, most rockfalls are triggered by weather conditions. This study highlights that in winter, rockfall frequency is 12 times higher during a superficial thaw than during a cold period in which temperature remains below 0 °C. In summer, rockfall frequency is 22 times higher during a heavy rainfall event than during a mainly dry period. This knowledge could be used to implement a risk management strategy.
Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Enrico Creaco, and Antonino Cancelliere
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an approach exploiting PCA to derive hydrometeorological landslide-triggering thresholds using multi-layered soil moisture data from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Comparison of thresholds based on single- and multi-layered soil moisture information provides a means to identify the significance of multi-layered data for landslide triggering in a region. In Sicily, the proposed approach yields thresholds with a higher performance than traditional precipitation-based ones (TSS = 0.71 vs. 0.50).
Raphael Knevels, Helene Petschko, Herwig Proske, Philip Leopold, Aditya N. Mishra, Douglas Maraun, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2009 and 2014, rainfall events occurred in the Styrian Basin (Austria), triggering thousands of landslides. Landslide storylines help to show potential future changes under changing environmental conditions. The often neglected uncertainty quantification was the aim of this study. We found uncertainty arising from the landslide model to be of the same order as climate scenario uncertainty. Understanding the dimensions of uncertainty is crucial for allowing informed decision-making.
Cited articles
Abdrakhmatov, K., Havenith, H. B., Delvaux, D., Jongmans, D., and Trefois, P.: Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity Maps of Kyrgyz Republic (Central Asia), J. Seismol., 7, 203–220, 2003.
Abdrakhmatov, K. Y., Aldazhanov, S. A., Hager, B. H., Hamburger, M. W., Herring, T. A., Kalabaev, K. B., Makarov, P., Molnar, S. V., Panasyuk, M. T., Prilepin, R. E., Reilinger, I. S., Sadybakasov, B. J., Souter, Yu. A., Trapeznikov, V. Ye., and Tsurkov Zubovich, A. V.: Relatively recent construction of the Tien Shan inferred from GPS measurements of present-day crustal deformation rates, Nature, 384, 450–45319, 1996.
Behling, R. and Roessner, S.: Multi-temporal landslide inventory for a study area in Southern Kyrgyz Republic derived from RapidEye satellite time series data (2009–2013), V. 1.0, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.1.4.2020.001, 2020.
Behling, R., Roessner, S., Kaufmann, H., and Kleinschmit, B.: Automated spatiotemporal landslide mapping over large areas using rapideye time series data, Remote Sens., 6, 8026–8055, 2014.
Behling, R., Roessner, S., Golovko, D., and Kleinschmit, B.: Derivation of long-term spatiotemporal landslide activity – A multi-sensor time series approach, Remote Sens. Environ., 186, 88–104, 2016.
Borgatti, L. and Soldati, M.: Landslides as a geomorphological proxy for climate change: a record from the Dolomites (northern Italy), Geomorphology, 120, 56–64, 2010.
CAC DRMI: Risk assessment for Central Asia and Caucasus: desk study review, project report, Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative, technical report, https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/central-asia-and-caucasus-disaster-risk-management-initiative (last access: 1 April 2023), 2009.
Canuti, P., Casagli, N., Ermini, L., Fanti, R., and Farina, P.: Landslide activity as a geoindicator in Italy: significance and new perspectives from remote sensing, Environ. Geol., 45, 907–919, 2004.
Casagli, N. and Ermini, L.: Geomorphic analysis of landslide dams in the Northern Apennine, Trans. Jpn. Geomorphol. Union., 20, 219–249, 1999.
Catani, F., Tofani, V., and Lagomarsino, D.: Spatial patterns of landslide dimension: a tool for magnitude mapping, Geomorphology, 273, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.08.032, 2016.
Chedia, O. K. and Lemzin, I.N.: Seismogenerating faults of the Chatkal depression, in: Seismotectonics and seismicity of the Tien Shan, technical report, Frunze, Ilim, 18–28, 1980.
Chen, C. Y. and Chang, J. M.: Landslide dam formation susceptibility analysis based on geomorphic features, Landslides, 13, 1019–1033, 2016.
Coccia, G., Ceresa, P., Bussi, G., Denaro, S., Bazzurro, P., Martina, M., Fagà, E., Avelar, C., Ordaz, M., Huerta, B., Garay, O., Raimbekova, Z., Abdrakhmatov, K., Mirzokhonova, S., Ismailov, V., and Belikov, V.: Large-scale flood risk assessment in data scarce areas: an application to Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157, in review, 2023.
Costa, J. E. and Schuster, R. L.: Formation and failure of natural dams, B. Geol. Soc. Am., 100, 1054–1068, https://doi.org/10.0016-1988)100/0016-7606(1988)100<1054:TFAFON>2.3.CO, 1988.
Costa, J. E. and Schuster, R. L.: Documented historical landslide dams from around the world, US Geol. Surv. Open-File Report, 91, 1–486, 1991.
Crozier, M. J.: Deciphering the effect of climate change on landslide activity: a review, Geomorphology, 124, 260–267, 2010.
Dai, F. C., Lee, C. F., Deng, J. H., and Tham, L.G.: The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China, Geomorphology, 65, 205-221, 2005.
Dal Sasso, S. F., Sole, A., Pascale, S., Sdao, F., Bateman Pinzòn, A., and Medina, V.: Assessment methodology for the prediction of landslide dam hazard, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 557–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-557-2014, 2014.
Danneels, G., Bourdeau, C., Torgoev, I., and Havenith, H. B.: Geophysical investigation and dynamic modelling of unstable slopes: case-study of Kainama (Kyrgyzstan), Geophys. J. Int., 175, 17–34, 2008.
Delvaux, D., Abdrakhmatov, K. E., Lemzin, I. N., and Strom, A. L.: Landslides and surface breaks of the 1911 Ms 8.2 Kemin earthquake, Kyrgyzstan, Russ. Geol. Geophys., 42, 1667–1677, 2001.
Dikau, R. and Schrott, L.: The temporal stability and activity of landslides in Europe with respect to climatic change (TESLEC): main objectives and results, Geomorphology, 30, 1–12, 1999.
Drăguţ, L. and Dornik, A.: Land-surface segmentation as a method to create strata for spatial sampling and its potential for digital soil mapping, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 30, 1359–1376, 2016.
Ermini, L. and Casagli, N.: Prediction of the behavior of landslide dams using a geomorphical dimensionless index, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 28, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.424, 2003.
Falátková, K.: Temporal analysis of GLOFs in high-mountain regions of Asia and assessment of their causes, AUC Geographica, 51, 145–154, 2016.
Fan, X., Rossiter, D. G., van Westen, C. J., Xu, Q., and Görüm, T.: Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation, Earth. Surf. Proc. Land., 39, 1913–1926, 2014.
Fan, X., Dufresne, A., Subramanian, S. S., Strom, A., Hermanns, R., Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Hewitt, K., Yunus, A. P., Dunning, S., Capra, L., Geertsema, M., Miller, B., Casagli, N., Jansen, J. D., and Xu, Q.: The formation and impact of landslide dams – State of the art, Earth Sci. Rev., 203, 103116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103116, 2020.
Fan, X., Dufresne, A., Whiteley, J., Yunus, A. P., Subramanian, S. S., Okeke, C. A., Pánek, T., Hermanns, R., Ming, P., Strom, A., Havenith, H. B., Dunning, S., Wang, G., and Tacconi Stefanelli, C.: Recent technological and methodological advances for the investigation of landslide dams, Earth-Sci. Rev., 218, 103646, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103646, 2021.
Farr, T. G. and Kobrick, M.: Shuttle Radar Topography Mission produces a wealth of data, Eos T. AGU, 81, 583–583, 2000.
Golovko, D., Roessner, S., Behling, R., Wetzel, H. U., and Kleinschmidt, B.: Development of multi-temporal landslide inventory information system for southern Kyrgyz Republic using GIS and satellite remote sensing, Photogrammetrie-Fernerkundung-Geoinformation, 2015, 157–172, 2015.
Guzzetti, F., Ardizzone, F., Cardinali, M., Rossi, M., and Valigi, D.: Landslide volumes and landslide mobilization rates in Umbria, central Italy, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 279, 222–229, 2009.
Havenith, H. B., Strom, A., Cacerez, F., and Pirard, E.: Analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Suusamyr region, Tien Shan: statistical and geotechnical approach, Landslides, 3, 39–50, 2006a.
Havenith, H. B., Torgoev, I., Meleshko, A., Alioshin, Y., Torgoev, A., and Danneels, G.: Landslides in the Mailuu-Suu Valley, Kyrgyz Republic – hazards and impacts, Landslides, 3, 137–147, 2006b.
Havenith, H. B., Strom, A., Torgoev, I., Torgoev, A., Lamair, L., Ischuk, A., and Abdrakhmatov, K.: Tien Shan geohazards database: Earthquakes and landslides, Geomorphology, 249, 16–31, 2015a.
Havenith, H. B., Torgoev, A., Schlögel, R., Braun, A., Torgoev, I., and Ischuk, A.: Tien Shan geohazards database: Landslide susceptibility analysis, Geomorphology, 249, 32–43, 2015b.
Havenith, H. B., Umaraliev, R., Schlögel, R., Torgoev, I., Ruslan, U., Schlogel, R., and Torgoev, I.: Past and Potential Future Socioeconomic Impacts of Environmental Hazards in Kyrgyz Republic. In Kyrgyz Republic: Political, Economic and Social Issues, edited by: Olivier, A. P., Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Hauppauge, NY, USA, 63–113, ISBN 978-1-53612-763-8, 2017.
Hungr, O. and Evans, S. G.: Entrainment of debris in rock avalanches: an analysis of a long run-out mechanism, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 116, 1240–1252, 2004.
Juliev, M., Pulatov, A., and Hubl, J.: Natural hazards in mountain regions of Uzbekistan: A review of mass movement processes in Tashkent province, International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 8, 1102, https://doi.org/10.14299/ijser.2017.02.013, 2017.
Kalmetieva, Z. A., Mikolaichuk, A. V, Moldobekov, B. D., Meleshko, A. V., Janaev, M. M., and Zubovich, A. V.: Atlas of earthquakes in Kyrgyz Republic. Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences and United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat Office in Central Asia, Bishkek, p. 75, ISBN 978-9967-25-829-7, 2009.
King, J., Loveday, I., and Schuster, R. L.: The 1985 Bairaman landslide dam and resulting debris flow, Papua New Guinea, Q. J. Eng. Geol. Hydroge., 22, 257–270, 1989.
Kropáček, J., Vilímek, V., and Mehrishi, P.: A preliminary assessment of the Chamoli rock and ice avalanche in the Indian Himalayas by remote sensing, Landslides, 18, 3489–3497, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01742-1, 2021.
Liao, H. M., Yang, X. G., Lu, G. D., Tao, J., and Zhou, J. W.: A geotechnical index for landslide dam stability assessment, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 13, 854–876, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2022.2048906, 2022.
Maxwell, A. E. and Shobe, C. M.: Land-surface parameters for spatial predictive mapping and modeling, Earth-Sci. Rev., 226, 103944, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103944, 2022.
Molnar, P. and Tapponnier, P.: Cenozoic Tectonics of Asia: Effects of a Continental Collision: Features of recent continental tectonics in Asia can be interpreted as results of the India-Eurasia collision, Science, 189, 419–426, 1975.
NASA JPL: NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Global 1 arc second, NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/MEaSUREs/SRTM/SRTMGL1.003, 2013.
Niyazov, R. A.: Uzbekistan landslides, Uzbekistan landslide service, Technical report, 2020.
Peresan, A., Scaini, C., Tyagunov, S., and Ceresa, P.: Capacity Building Experience for Disaster Risk Reduction in Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-156, in review, 2023.
Persits, F. M., Ulmishek, G. F., and Steinshouer, D. W.: Maps showing geology, oil and gas fields and geologic provinces of the Former Soviet Union (No. 97-470-E), US Geological Survey, https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr97470E, 1997.
Petrov, M. A., Sabitov, T. Y., Tomashevskaya, I. G., Glazirin, G. E., Chernomorets, S. S., Savernyuk, E. A., Tutubalina O. V., Petrakov, D. A., Sokolov, L. S., Dokukin, M. D., Mountrakis, G., Ruiz-Villanueva, V., and Stoffel, M.: Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan, Sci. Total Environ., 592, 228–242, 2017.
Piroton, V., Schlögel, R., Barbier, C., and Havenith, H. B.: Monitoring the recent activity of landslides in the Mailuu-suu valley (Kyrgyz Republic) using radar and optical remote sensing techniques, Geosciences, 10, 164, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10050164, 2020.
Popescu, M. E. and Sasahara, K.: Engineering Measures for Landslide Disaster Mitigation, in: Landslides – Disaster Risk Reduction, edited by: Sassa, K., Canuti, P., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_32, 2009.
Righini, M. and Surian, N.: Remote sensing as a tool for analysing channel dynamics and geomorphic effects of floods, Flood monitoring through remote sensing, in: Flood Monitoring through Remote Sensing, Springer International Publishing, Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, 27–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63959-8_2, 2018.
Rosi, A., Frodella, W., Nocentini, N., Caleca, F., Havenith, H. B., Strom, A., Saidov, M., Bimurzaev, G. A., and Tofani, V.: Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2229–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2229-2023, 2023.
Saponaro, A., Pilz, M., Wieland, M., Bindi, D., Moldobekov, B., and Parolai, S.: Landslide susceptibility analysis in data-scarce regions: the case of Kyrgyz Republic, B. Eng. Geol. Environ., 74, 1117–1136, 2014.
Schlögel, R., Torgoev, I., De Marneffe, C., and Havenith, H. B.: Evidence of a changing size-frequency distribution of landslides in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, Central Asia, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 36, 1658–1669, 2011.
Schuster, R. L. and Evans, S. G.: Engineering Measures for the Hazard Reduction of Landslide Dams, in: Natural and Artificial Rockslide Dams. Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, edited by: Evans, S., Hermanns, R., Strom, A., and Scarascia-Mugnozza, G., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04764-0_2, 2011.
Semakova, E., Gunasekara, K., and Semakov, D.: Identification of the glaciers and mountain naturally dammed lakes in the Pskem, the Kashkadarya and the Surhandarya River basins, Uzbekistan, using ALOS satellite data, Geomat. Nat. Haz. Risk, 7, 1081–1098, 2016.
Styron, R. and Pagani, M.: The GEM Global Active Faults Database, Earthquake Spectra, 36, 160–180, https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020944182, 2020.
Strom, A.: Landslide dams in Central Asia region, Journal of the Japan Landslide Society, 47, 309–324, 2010.
Strom, A. and Abdrakhmatov, K.: Large-Scale Rockslide Inventories: From the Kokomeren River Basin to the Entire Central Asia Region, WCoE 2014–2017, IPL-106-2, in: 4th World Landslide Forum, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 29 May–2 June 2017, Springer, Cham, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59469-9_28, 2017.
Strom, A. and Abdrakhmatov. K.: Rockslides and rock avalanches of Central Asia: distribution, morphology, and internal structure, Elsevier, 441 pp., ISBN 978-0-12-803204-6, 2018.
Swanson, F. J., Oyagi, N., and Tominaga, M.: Landslide dams in Japan, in: Landslide dams: processes, risk and mitigation, vol 3, edited by: Schuster R. L., Geotech. Sp., ASCE, New York, 131–145, ISBN 10 0872625249, ISBN 13 978-0872625242, 1986.
Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Catani, F., and Casagli, N.: Geomorphological investigations on landslide dams, Geoenv. Disast., 2, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-015-0030-9, 2015.
Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Segoni, S., Casagli, N., and Catani, F.: Geomorphic indexing of landslide dams evolution, Eng. Geol., 208, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2016.04.024, 2016.
Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Vilímek, V., Emmer, A., and Catani, F.: Morphological analysis and features of the landslide dams in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Landslides, 15, 507–521, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0909-5, 2018.
Tacconi Stefanelli, C., Casagli, N., and Catani, F.: Landslide damming hazard susceptibility maps: a new GIS-based procedure for risk management, Landslides, 17, 1635–1648, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01395-6, 2020.
Trifonov, V. G., Makarov, V. I., and Scobelev, S. F.: The Talas-Fergana active right-slip faults, Ann. Tectonicae, 6, 224–237, 1992.
Ullah, S., Bindi, D., Pilz, M., Danciu, L., Weatherill, G., Zuccolo, E., Anatoly Ischuk, A., Mikhailova, N. N., Abdrakhmatov, K., and Parolai, S.: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia, Ann. Geophys., 58, S0103, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6687, 2015.
Wang, X., Ding, Y., Liu, S., Jiang, L., Wu, K., Jiang, Z., and Guo, W.: Changes of glacial lakes and implications in Tian Shan, central Asia, based on remote sensing data from 1990 to 2010, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044052, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044052, 2013.
Wang, D., Laffan, S. W., Liu, Y., and Wu, L.: Morphometric characterization of landform from DEMs, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 24, 305–326, 2010.
Wood, J.: Geomorphometry in LandSerf, in: Geomorphometry: Concepts, Software, Applications, edited by: Hengl, T. and Reuter, H. I., Dev. Soil. Sci., 33, 333–349, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-2481(08)00014-7, 2009.
Zubovich, A. V., Wang, X. Q., Scherba, Y. G., Schelochkov, G. G., Reilinger, R., Reigber, C., Mosienko, O., Molnar, P., Michajljow, W., Makarov, V. I., Li, J., Kuzikov, S. I., Herring, T. A., Hamburger, M. W., Hager, B. H., Dang, Y., Bragin, V. D., and Beisenbaev, R.: GPS velocity field for the Tien Shan and surrounding regions, Tectonics, 29, TC6014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010TC002772, 2010.
Short summary
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong rainfall. These predisposing factors make large landslides a serious threat in the area and a source of possible damming scenarios, which endanger the population. To prevent this, a semi-automated geographic information system (GIS-)based mapping method, centered on a bivariate correlation of morphometric parameters, was applied to give preliminary information on damming susceptibility in Central Asia.
Central Asia regions are marked by active tectonics, high mountains with glaciers, and strong...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint