The paper advances hazard and risk science by developing a cross-hazard framework for systematically identifying, separating, quantifying, and communicating multiple sources of uncertainty, centred on the novel concept of a “complete forecast.” The paper can be a highlight paper because it bridges traditionally fragmented disciplinary approaches to uncertainty and offers a broadly applicable foundation for more transparent model evaluation, risk communication, and uncertainty-informed decision-making.

The paper makes an important methodological contribution by demonstrating that conventional spatially uniform design storms can substantially underestimate localized flood exposure and structural damage, whereas stochastic storm transposition (SST) captures the spatial organization and variability of real storms and reveals previously overlooked risks. The paper can be considered a highlight paper because it provides compelling evidence that representing spatial rainfall variability can fundamentally alter flood-risk estimates, with direct implications for floodplain management, infrastructure design, and climate-resilient planning.