Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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13 Sep 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Sep 2024
| 13 Sep 2024
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results
Laurentiu Danciu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Swiss Seismological Service (SED), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8009, Switzerland
Domenico Giardini
Swiss Seismological Service (SED), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8009, Switzerland
Graeme Weatherill
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14467, Germany
Roberto Basili
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, 00143, Roma, Italy
Shyam Nandan
Swiss Seismological Service (SED), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8009, Switzerland
Andrea Rovida
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 20133, Milan, Italy
Céline Beauval
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Univ. Gustave Eiffel, ISTerre, 38000, Grenoble, France
Pierre-Yves Bard
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Univ. Gustave Eiffel, ISTerre, 38000, Grenoble, France
Marco Pagani
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore, Singapore
Celso G. Reyes
Swiss Seismological Service (SED), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8009, Switzerland
Karin Sesetyan
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi University, 34684, Istanbul, Türkiye
Susana Vilanova
Instituto Superior Tecnico (IST), University of Lisbon, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Fabrice Cotton
Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, 14467, Germany
Stefan Wiemer
Swiss Seismological Service (SED), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8009, Switzerland
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Short summary
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-991, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
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EPICA is the 1000–1899 catalogue compiled for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020 and contains 5703 earthquakes with Mw ≥ 4.0. It relies on the data of the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data (AHEAD), both macroseismic intensities from historical seismological studies and parameters from regional catalogues. For each earthquake, the most representative datasets were selected and processed in order to derive harmonised parameters, both from intensity data and parametric catalogues.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
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As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Xiaodong Ma, Marian Hertrich, Florian Amann, Kai Bröker, Nima Gholizadeh Doonechaly, Valentin Gischig, Rebecca Hochreutener, Philipp Kästli, Hannes Krietsch, Michèle Marti, Barbara Nägeli, Morteza Nejati, Anne Obermann, Katrin Plenkers, Antonio P. Rinaldi, Alexis Shakas, Linus Villiger, Quinn Wenning, Alba Zappone, Falko Bethmann, Raymi Castilla, Francisco Seberto, Peter Meier, Thomas Driesner, Simon Loew, Hansruedi Maurer, Martin O. Saar, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 13, 301–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-13-301-2022, 2022
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Questions on issues such as anthropogenic earthquakes and deep geothermal energy developments require a better understanding of the fractured rock. Experiments conducted at reduced scales but with higher-resolution observations can shed some light. To this end, the BedrettoLab was recently established in an existing tunnel in Ticino, Switzerland, with preliminary efforts to characterize realistic rock mass behavior at the hectometer scale.
Enrico Baglione, Stefano Lorito, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Hafize Basak Bayraktar, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, 2021
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We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3599-2021, 2021
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We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2299–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2299-2021, 2021
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We present a probabilistic approach for integrating incomplete intensity distributions by means of the Bayesian combination of estimates provided by intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and data documented at nearby localities, accounting for the relevant uncertainties. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested at 28 Italian localities with long and rich seismic histories and for the strong 1980 and 2009 earthquakes in Italy. An application of this approach is also illustrated.
Alba Zappone, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Melchior Grab, Quinn C. Wenning, Clément Roques, Claudio Madonna, Anne C. Obermann, Stefano M. Bernasconi, Matthias S. Brennwald, Rolf Kipfer, Florian Soom, Paul Cook, Yves Guglielmi, Christophe Nussbaum, Domenico Giardini, Marco Mazzotti, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 12, 319–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-319-2021, 2021
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The success of the geological storage of carbon dioxide is linked to the availability at depth of a capable reservoir and an impermeable caprock. The sealing capacity of the caprock is a key parameter for long-term CO2 containment. Faults crosscutting the caprock might represent preferential pathways for CO2 to escape. A decameter-scale experiment on injection in a fault, monitored by an integrated network of multiparamerter sensors, sheds light on the mobility of fluids within the fault.
Silvia Pondrelli, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3577–3592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3577-2020, 2020
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We used 100 years of seismicity in Italy to predict the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose of using this information in a new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out of the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases from very clear ones, e.g., extensional tectonics in the central Apennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.
Camilla Rossi, Francesco Grigoli, Simone Cesca, Sebastian Heimann, Paolo Gasperini, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, Torsten Dahm, Christopher J. Bean, Stefan Wiemer, Luca Scarabello, Nima Nooshiri, John F. Clinton, Anne Obermann, Kristján Ágústsson, and Thorbjörg Ágústsdóttir
Adv. Geosci., 54, 129–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-129-2020, 2020
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We investigate the microseismicity occurred at Hengill area, a complex tectonic and geothermal site, where the origin of earthquakes may be either natural or anthropogenic. We use a very dense broadband seismic monitoring network and apply full-waveform based method for location. Our results and first characterization identified different types of microseismic clusters, which might be associated to either production/injection or the tectonic activity of the geothermal area.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, 2020
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This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Dominik Zbinden, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Tobias Diehl, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 909–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-909-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-909-2020, 2020
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The deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland, aimed at generating electricity and heat. The fluid pumped into the underground caused hundreds of small earthquakes and one larger one felt by the local population. Here we use computer simulations to study the physical processes that led to the earthquakes. We find that gas present in the subsurface could have intensified the seismicity, which may have implications for future geothermal projects conducted in similar geological conditions.
Linus Villiger, Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Oliver Dutler, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Paul Antony Selvadurai, Arnaud Mignan, Katrin Plenkers, Domenico Giardini, Florian Amann, and Stefan Wiemer
Solid Earth, 11, 627–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-627-2020, 2020
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Hydraulic stimulation summarizes fracture initiation and reactivation due to high-pressure fluid injection. Several borehole intervals covering intact rock and pre-existing fractures were targets for high-pressure fluid injections within a decameter-scale, crystalline rock volume. The observed induced seismicity strongly depends on the target geology. In addition, the severity of the induced seismicity per experiment counter correlates with the observed transmissivity enhancement.
Richard Styron, Julio García-Pelaez, and Marco Pagani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 831–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, 2020
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The Caribbean and Central American region is both tectonically active and densely populated, leading to a large population that is exposed to earthquake hazards. Until now, no comprehensive fault data covering the region have been available. We present a new public fault database for Central America and the Caribbean that synthesizes published studies with new mapping from remote sensing to provide fault sources for the CCARA seismic hazard and risk analysis project and to aid future research.
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2677–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2677-2019, 2019
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Maps are an established way to illustrate natural hazards and regularly used to communicate with non-experts. However, there is evidence that they are frequently misconceived. Using a real case, our study shows that applying or disregarding best practices in visualization, editing, and presentation significantly impacts the comprehensibility of seismic hazard information. We suggest scrutinizing current natural-hazard communication strategies and empirically testing new products.
Sebastian von Specht, Ugur Ozturk, Georg Veh, Fabrice Cotton, and Oliver Korup
Solid Earth, 10, 463–486, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019, 2019
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We show the landslide response to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Landslides are concentrated to the northeast of the rupture, coinciding with the propagation direction of the earthquake. This azimuthal variation in the landslide concentration is linked to the seismic rupture process itself and not to classical landslide susceptibility factors. We propose a new ground-motion model that links the seismic radiation pattern with the landslide distribution.
Ahoura Jafarimanesh, Arnaud Mignan, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Florian Amann, Valentin Gischig, Keith Evans, Joseph Doetsch, Reza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Hannes Krietsch, Nathan Dutler, Linus Villiger, Bernard Brixel, Maria Klepikova, Anniina Kittilä, Claudio Madonna, Stefan Wiemer, Martin O. Saar, Simon Loew, Thomas Driesner, Hansruedi Maurer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 115–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-115-2018, 2018
Valentin Samuel Gischig, Joseph Doetsch, Hansruedi Maurer, Hannes Krietsch, Florian Amann, Keith Frederick Evans, Morteza Nejati, Mohammadreza Jalali, Benoît Valley, Anne Christine Obermann, Stefan Wiemer, and Domenico Giardini
Solid Earth, 9, 39–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-39-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-9-39-2018, 2018
Laura Peruzza, Raffaele Azzaro, Robin Gee, Salvatore D'Amico, Horst Langer, Giuseppe Lombardo, Bruno Pace, Marco Pagani, Francesco Panzera, Mario Ordaz, Miguel Leonardo Suarez, and Giuseppina Tusa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1999–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017, 2017
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It is well known that volcanoes and earthquakes are associated, and some active volcanoes cause damaging earthquakes. Nonetheless, volcanoes usually are not pinpointed on a hazard map, as the effects of shallow, volcanic earthquakes can be overshadowed by stronger tectonic earthquakes in the region, particularly when long exposure periods are considered. In this study we faced some challenges with software implementations and original concept scheme for an original PSHA at Mt. Etna, Italy.
Irene Molinari, John Clinton, Edi Kissling, György Hetényi, Domenico Giardini, Josip Stipčević, Iva Dasović, Marijan Herak, Vesna Šipka, Zoltán Wéber, Zoltán Gráczer, Stefano Solarino, the Swiss-AlpArray Field Team, and the AlpArray Working Group
Adv. Geosci., 43, 15–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-15-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-43-15-2016, 2016
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AlpArray is a collaborative seismological project in Europe that includes ~ 50 research institutes and seismological observatories. At its heart is the collection of top-quality seismological data from a dense network of stations in the Alpine region: the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN). We report the Swiss contribution: site selections, installation, data quality and management. We deployed 27 temporary BB stations across 5 countries as result of a fruitful collaboration between 5 institutes.
R. Basili, M. M. Tiberti, V. Kastelic, F. Romano, A. Piatanesi, J. Selva, and S. Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1025–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Forearc crustal faulting and estimated worst-case tsunami scenario in the upper plate of subduction zones. Case study of the Morne Piton Fault system (Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe Archipelago)
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of Local Crustal Seismic Response
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sweden
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Strategies for Comparison of Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models and Insights from the Germany and France Border Region
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
A 2700-yr record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Upper and Lower Squaw Lakes, Oregon
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia-Romagna, Italy)
Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Inferring the depth and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes from intensity attenuation curves
Tsunami scenario triggered by a submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment
Scrutinizing and rooting the multiple anomalies of Nepal earthquake sequence in 2015 with the deviation–time–space criterion and homologous lithosphere–coversphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling physics
On the calculation of smoothing kernels for seismic parameter spatial mapping: methodology and examples
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Brief communication: The crucial assessment of possible significant vertical movements preceding the 28 December 1908, Mw = 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake
Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
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Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
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As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
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The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
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The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
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We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
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Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
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Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
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The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
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Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
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The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
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We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-8, 2024
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This study identified a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modelling we found that this was a magnitude 5.6 to 6.8 earthquake on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
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Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
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This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
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Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Using novel geophysical datasets we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton Fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm.yr-1, dividing by five previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative for the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if the whole Fault segments would ruptured together.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
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Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169504548.82107207/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169504548.82107207/v1, 2024
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Rapidly growing cities in earthquake-prone Global South regions lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study shows that even with these limitations, it is possible to generate reasonable predictions of the spatial variability in expected ground motions using high-resolution local geological information and simulation-based methods. We emphasize that substantial investments in the measurement of subsurface properties can prove valuable.
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates makes seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Since 2000, expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use this new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods. We find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north, which we find to have the highest hazard in Sweden with mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.05 g for a 475 year return period.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
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Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake process. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
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We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
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This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
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The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stephane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1,248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
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Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Ann Elizabeth Morey and Chris Goldfinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, 2023
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This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California/Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records and an age-depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
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Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
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The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
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Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
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The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
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In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
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This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
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The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
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Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
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We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
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In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
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Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
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In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
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We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
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Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
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Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
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One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
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Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
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The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
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We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Cited articles
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Albini P., Locati M., Rovida A., and Stucchi M.: European Archive of Historical EArthquake Data (AHEAD), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-ahead, 2013.
Allen, T. I. and Hayes, G. P.: Alternative Rupture-Scaling Relationships for Subduction Interface and Other Offshore Environments, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107, 1240–1253, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160255, 2017.
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Executive editor
The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the most recent and up-to-date assessment of seismic hazard for the Euro-Mediterranean region.
The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the most recent and up-to-date...
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update...
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