Harmonized seismic hazard and risk assessment for Europe
Harmonized seismic hazard and risk assessment for Europe
Editor(s): Laurentiu Danciu, Mathilde Sørensen, Pierre-Yves Bard, Roberto Basili, Fabrice Cotton, Helen Crowley, Domenico Giardini, Stefan Wiemer, and Paolo Tarolli
We invite contributions to a special issue in NHESS on the European seismic hazard and risk models. During the 20th century, earthquakes in Europe accounted for more than 200 000 deaths and over EUR 250 billion in losses. Earthquakes cannot be prevented or precisely predicted, but efficient mitigation measures informed by earthquake hazard and risk models can significantly reduce their impacts.

It has long been recognized that earthquake effects extend across country borders and that seismic hazard and risk must be addressed not only locally but also nationally and, equally importantly, at a regional level.

In 2022, the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EFEHR) released the next-generation European seismic hazard model and the first harmonized European earthquake risk models. The development of these models was a joint multiyear effort of seismologists, geologists, and engineers across Europe. These models offer harmonized information on the spatial distribution of expected levels of ground shaking due to earthquakes, their frequency, and their potential impact on the built environment and on people's well-being.

The newly released update of the earthquake hazard model and the first earthquake risk model for Europe are the basis for establishing mitigation measures and making communities more resilient. They significantly improve understanding of where strong shaking is most likely to occur and what effects future earthquakes in Europe will have.

We invite contributions to a virtual special issue in NHESS related to the European seismic hazard and risk model building, model results, sensitivity analysis, and all model components. We also welcome contributions on seismic hazard and risk assessment in general, at the local, national, and regional levels, with a particular emphasis on seismogenic source models, earthquake rate forecasts, active fault modelling, empirical and physical ground motion modelling, site effect evaluation, exposure modelling, numerical and empirical vulnerability model development, assessment of seismic hazard across political boundaries, comparison and sensitivity analyses, and other related topics. Contributions demonstrating the development of novel testing procedures, as well as the comprehensive treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, are also encouraged.

Submission to the virtual special issues will start in July 2022 and end in July 2023; contributions will be open for community reviews and published online as soon as the review process is completed.

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23 May 2024
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
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24 Apr 2024
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
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05 Apr 2024
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
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27 Feb 2024
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
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16 Feb 2024
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
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31 Jan 2024
The communication strategy for the release of the first European Seismic Risk Model and the updated European Seismic Hazard Model
Irina Dallo, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Helen Crowley, Jamal Dabbeek, Laurentiu Danciu, Simone Zaugg, Fabrice Cotton, Domenico Giardini, Rui Pinho, John F. Schneider, Céline Beauval, António A. Correia, Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marco Pagani, Vitor Silva, Graeme Weatherill, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-291-2024, 2024
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26 Jan 2024
The quest for reference stations at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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15 Jan 2024
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matt Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-232,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-232, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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10 Jan 2024
Towards a Harmonized Operational Earthquake Forecasting Model for Europe
Marta Han, Leila Mizrahi, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3153, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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04 Jan 2024
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and Results
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso Guillermo Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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06 Dec 2023
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sweden
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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07 Nov 2023
Strategies for Comparison of Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models and Insights from the Germany and France Border Region
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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05 Oct 2023
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
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11 Sep 2023
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stephane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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28 Jul 2023
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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27 Jul 2023
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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