Articles | Volume 24, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results
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- Final revised paper (published on 13 Sep 2024)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 04 Jan 2024)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-3062', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jan 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Laurentiu Danciu, 16 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-3062', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Feb 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Laurentiu Danciu, 16 Apr 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (13 May 2024) by Mathilde Sørensen
AR by Laurentiu Danciu on behalf of the Authors (02 Jun 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (28 Jun 2024) by Mathilde Sørensen
ED: Publish as is (08 Jul 2024) by Paolo Tarolli (Executive editor)
AR by Laurentiu Danciu on behalf of the Authors (12 Jul 2024)
Manuscript
The manuscript by Danciu et al. provides a concise and short description of the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020. The overview paper lists, describes and references the vast amount of work that build the foundation the ESHM20 and will serve as primary reference for this model, pointing to more detailed descriptions of the ingredients of the model. This manuscript is a significant contribution to improve seismic hazard assessment efforts on the regional European scale.
I recommend publication of this manuscript after minor revision. I primarily request clarifications and clearer statements of the authors opinion about some of the results. Please guide the reader with your interpretation of the results rather than let the reader free to do so.
Below I have listed my requests pointing to the lines in the manuscript.
Lines 117-118: Please make the link to the additional data more prominent. It took me a while to figure out that I have to go to section 8 to access supplementary data. Add a link here and reference the section, a table, something that is easy for the reader.
Line 143: An example would be handy and would give real numbers for the reader: What is the overall rate change for M≥6 (or some threshold) in the model (overall). What is the change in active vs stable regions? Please add an MFD rate comparison plot similar as in Woessner et al. (2015) for the source models and the weighted combination.
Lines 154-155: Isn’t this (at least partly) mitigated by the regional adjustments of the non-ergodic GMM?
Lines 150-162: In this section, a discussion on the regional impact would be good. PGA475 increases in Romania strongly, increases are also seen in Spain. Decreases are seen in Italy and Turkey. Can you point out spatially (by tectonics, by country) the main drivers of change: Is it the rate model and if so which part of the rate model? Is it the weighting or the models? Is it the ground motion model, which decision therein? Is the ground motion model update more impactful than the update of the source model? Are there spatial differences?
Lines 212-214: Could you elaborate on these tests and the criteria used to decide on a declustering method? More precisely, was the catalogue (against which the model was evaluated) declustered as well with the same method? If no, how insightful is a comparison of a mainshock forecast with a full (foreshock, mainshock, aftershock) catalogue? Sentence is not clear on which method was used in the end. Please clarify.
Line 216: “this branch” which branch?
Lines 264-265: “as a proxy of the spatial organization of the source models” what does this mean?
Lines 274-276: How exactly were the three Mmax values selected? Do they correspond to specific quantiles of area?
Line 278: “lower value of the expected Mmax” maybe remove “expected”
Lines 319-320: Are “similar predictions for well-represented scenarios” not desirable? Please clarify.
Lines 367-369: Some of the uncertainties explicitly explored in ESHM20 were “collapsed” In ESHM13 (e.g. b values). This sentence suggests that ESHM13 featured a single collapsed source logic tree branch, although in reality it had three alternative branches representing different methodologies. Please clarify.
Lines 383-385: What sensitivity studies were conducted, and what criteria were considered to decide on using the “correlated end-branches”?
Line 415-418: This statement is vague. Please outline what would be required to be able to trust seismic hazard values at APE of 1/5000 or lower if required for a certain location and give references to example studies?
Line 430-444: Selecting these six locations to illustrate the complexity of the hazard curves and its uncertainty is illustrative. Despite this being a combined effect, could you elaborate in addition to the current description whether the uncertainty of the ground motion model or the rate model is more influential and for which location? Towards the end, the hazard curve 'decay' is described. The description does not discuss the parameter that is responsible which I believe is the uncertainty of the GMPEs? Please clarify and describe more precisely.
Lines 458-460: Maybe also the fact that ESHM20 uses “correlated end-branches” which will overestimate the uncertainty, whereas ESHM13 only considers mean recurrence parameters (which underestimates uncertainty)?
Figure 5: Please add a table with values to make comparisons easier or provide in the appendix. Including a table with these values for each capital city would be handy for reference.
Line 477 - 485: For the Azores, Canaries and Iceland: The Canaries are tectonically different from the Azores and Iceland. Has there been any differentiation in approaching this in the model?
Line 485: Please add statements on whether differences for SA=0.2s and 1s are similar or different from what is seen for PGA. If not, please give examples for locations where differences occur and explain.
Lines 506 - 507: The statement that PGA hazard patterns 'differ slightly' between the area and the smoothed seismicity model is not correct. Firstly, how do you define slightly? Secondly, there are differences in pattern and levels of PGA in Norway, Sweden, the UK, Belgium and Belgium - France border, German-Czech border, Southern Germany. It is positive that there are differences, otherwise two branches would not be needed. Please note and state these differences. Clarify what is considered different with a quantifiable metric? What does this tell the reader about the level of knowledge in a certain area or is it a consequence of subjective judgement? Help the reader to better understand your interpretation of the model / model component results.
Line 594-600: The European seismic risk model is not based on exactly the same hazard model. Please highlight the major differences otherwise I think this conveys a wrong message.