Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024
Research article
 | 
28 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2024

The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas

Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi

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Cited articles

Bi, J. M. and Jiang, C. S.: Distribution characteristics of earthquake sequence parameters in North China, Chinese J. Geophys., 62, 4300–4312, 2019 (in Chinese). 
Bi, J. M., Jiang, C. S., Lai, G. J., and Song, C.: Effectiveness evaluation and constrains of early aftershock probability forecasting for strong earthquakes in continental China, Chinese J. Geophys., 65, 2532–2545, 2022 (in Chinese). 
Boyd, O. S.: Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 909–917, 2012. 
Canales, M. R. and Baan, M. V. D.: Are aftershock sequences pertinent to long-term seismic hazard assessments? Insights from the temporal ETAS model, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 125, e2019JB019095, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB019095, 2020. 
Cornell, C. A.: Engineering seismic risk analysis, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583–1606, 1968. 
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Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
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