Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
Research article
 | 
28 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2024

The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas

Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of b values revealed by a data-driven approach for the 17 June 2019 MS 6.0 Changning earthquake sequence, Sichuan, China
Changsheng Jiang, Libo Han, Feng Long, Guijuan Lai, Fengling Yin, Jinmeng Bi, and Zhengya Si
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Cited articles

Bi, J. M. and Jiang, C. S.: Distribution characteristics of earthquake sequence parameters in North China, Chinese J. Geophys., 62, 4300–4312, 2019 (in Chinese). 
Bi, J. M., Jiang, C. S., Lai, G. J., and Song, C.: Effectiveness evaluation and constrains of early aftershock probability forecasting for strong earthquakes in continental China, Chinese J. Geophys., 65, 2532–2545, 2022 (in Chinese). 
Boyd, O. S.: Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 102, 909–917, 2012. 
Canales, M. R. and Baan, M. V. D.: Are aftershock sequences pertinent to long-term seismic hazard assessments? Insights from the temporal ETAS model, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 125, e2019JB019095, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB019095, 2020. 
Cornell, C. A.: Engineering seismic risk analysis, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58, 1583–1606, 1968. 
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Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
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