Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2943-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2943-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 06 Nov 2020
| 06 Nov 2020
Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca–South American subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability
Eugenio E. Vogel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Departamento de Física, Universidad de La Frontera, Casilla 54-D, Temuco, Chile
Center for the Development of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology (CEDENNA), 9170124 Santiago, Chile
Felipe G. Brevis
Departamento de Física, Universidad de La Frontera, Casilla 54-D, Temuco, Chile
Denisse Pastén
Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias,
Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Santiago, Chile
Víctor Muñoz
Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias,
Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Rodrigo A. Miranda
UnB-Gama Campus, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil
Plasma Physics Laboratory, Institute of Physics, University of Brasilia, Brasilia DF 70910-900, Brazil
Abraham C.-L. Chian
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos-SP 12227-010, Brazil
Related authors
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along subduction. This study shows how an entropy approach can help understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are natural hazardous phenomena that can bring death, destruction,
economical crisis, migrations and other social implications. This paper aims to understand one of the main causes for seismic activity: subduction of one Earth plate underneath another one in a stochastic way. The time series associated to this activity provides information which we have analyzed it by new techniques. This allows us to estimate where important earthquakes can occur although we cannot yet say when.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Denisse Pastén, Gonzalo Saravia, Michel Aguilera, and Antonio Posadas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-106, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, an entropy analysis has been performed in Alaska, a seismic-rich region located in a subduction zone that shows non-trivial behavior: the subduction arc changes seismic activity from the eastern zone to the western zone, showing a decrease in this activity along subduction. This study shows how an entropy approach can help understand seismicity in subduction zones.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Macarena Domínguez, Giuseppina Nigro, Víctor Muñoz, Vincenzo Carbone, and Mario Riquelme
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 175–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study a model for the relationship between space plasma and geomagnetic activity, by using an MHD shell model, where its forcing has been replaced by solar wind fluctuation data.
We study the fractality of the forcing, its output, and the activity of the model, which may represent the existence of geomagnetic storms. We find correlations between some of these metrics and the solar cycle, suggesting that the complexity of the solar wind may have influence on the level of geomagnetic activity.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are natural hazardous phenomena that can bring death, destruction,
economical crisis, migrations and other social implications. This paper aims to understand one of the main causes for seismic activity: subduction of one Earth plate underneath another one in a stochastic way. The time series associated to this activity provides information which we have analyzed it by new techniques. This allows us to estimate where important earthquakes can occur although we cannot yet say when.
Rodrigo A. Miranda, Adriane B. Schelin, Abraham C.-L. Chian, and José L. Ferreira
Ann. Geophys., 36, 497–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The solar wind is a tenuous turbulent plasma permeating the interplanetary space and is not well understood. A complex process called magnetic reconnection can act as a source of solar wind turbulence. Here we study this process using statistics. We demonstrate that high-order statistics of the magnetic field display a parabolic relation that is enhanced when magnetic reconnection occurs. Our results can help us understand the nature of solar wind turbulence.
J. Wanliss, V. Muñoz, D. Pastén, B. Toledo, and J. A. Valdivia
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-2-619-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-2-619-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes by comparing predictions of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake scaling. Do earthquakes fit the hypothesis of an avalanching critical system? We study a set of new power law exponents, and compare these explicitly to predictions for critical avalanching systems. At below 84 hours radiated energy follows patterns fitting the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions.
D. Falceta-Gonçalves, G. Kowal, E. Falgarone, and A. C.-L. Chian
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 587–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-587-2014, 2014
V. Jatenco-Pereira, A. C.-L. Chian, and N. Rubab
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 405–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-405-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-405-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Forearc crustal faulting and estimated worst-case tsunami scenario in the upper plate of subduction zones. Case study of the Morne Piton Fault system (Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe Archipelago)
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalog and active faults
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia-Romagna, Italy)
Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Inferring the depth and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes from intensity attenuation curves
Tsunami scenario triggered by a submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment
Scrutinizing and rooting the multiple anomalies of Nepal earthquake sequence in 2015 with the deviation–time–space criterion and homologous lithosphere–coversphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling physics
On the calculation of smoothing kernels for seismic parameter spatial mapping: methodology and examples
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Brief communication: The crucial assessment of possible significant vertical movements preceding the 28 December 1908, Mw = 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake
Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)
Probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis for the north Tabriz fault
Landslides triggered by the 2015 Mw 6.0 Sabah (Malaysia) earthquake: inventory and ESI-07 intensity assignment
Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru
An updated area-source seismogenic model (MA4) for seismic hazard of Italy
Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during the last 2 millennia
Analysis of seismic strain release related to the tidal stress preceding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton Fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm.yr-1, dividing by five previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative for the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if the whole Fault segments would ruptured together.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-186, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses scenarios of earthquake events, but the selection criteria do not always consider consequences to exposed assets. For this reason, we adopt a definition of representative scenario, associated to a return period and loss level, for selecting such scenarios among a big set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential buildings and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios vary in function of the exposed assets.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karayev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-131, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was recently developed as part of the “Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia” (SFRARR) program, promoted by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR. This paper describes the preparation of the input data sets (earthquake catalog and active fault database) needed to implement a probabilistic earthquake model for the Central Asian countries.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1740, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damages are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components, which may be tested individually, however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we are using observations of damages caused by the Le Teil 2019 earthquake, and estimations with other models to test components of the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model and the European Seismic Risk Model.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Cited articles
Altamimi, Z., Collilieux, X., Legrand, J., Garayt, B., and Boucher, C.:
A new release of the International Terrestrial Reference
Frame based on time series of station positions and Earth Orientation
Parameters, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B09401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB004949, 2007.
Bressan, G., Barnaba, C., Gentili, S., and Rossi, G.:
Information entropy of earthquake populations in northeastern Italy and western Slovenia, Phys. Earth Planet. In., 271, 29–46, 2017.
Cakmur, R. V., Egolf, D. A., Plapp, B. B., and Bodenschatz, E.:
Bistability and competition of spatiotemporal chaotic and fixed point attractors in Rayleigh-Bénard convection, Phys. Rev. Lett.,
79, 1853–1856, 1997.
Chian, A. C.-L., Miranda, R. A., Rempel, E. L., Saiki, Y., and Yamada, M.:
Amplitude-phase synchronization at the onset of permanent spatiotemporal
chaos, Phys. Rev. Lett., 104, 254102, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.104.254102, 2010.
Contreras, D. J., Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., and Stockins, B.: Derivation of a
Measure of Systolic Blood Pressure Mutability: A Novel Information
Theory-Based Metric from Ambulatory Blood Pressure Tests, J. Am. Soc. Hypertens., 10, 217–223, 2016.
Cordaro, E. G., Venegas, P., and Laroze, D.: Latitudinal variation rate of geomagnetic cutoff rigidity in the active Chilean convergent margin, Ann. Geophys., 36, 275–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-275-2018, 2018.
Cortez, V., Saravia, G., and Vogel, E. E.:
Phase diagram and reentrance for the 3D Edwards-Anderson model using information theory, J. Magn. Magn. Mater., 372, 173–180, 2014.
Cover, T. M. and Thomas, J. A.: Elements of Information Theory, 2nd edn.,
John Wiley and Sons, New York, 2006.
Crisanti, A., Falcioni, M., Paladin, G., Serva, M., and Vulpiani, A.:
Complexity in quantum systems, Phys. Rev. E, 50, 1959–1967, 1994.
de Arcangelis, L., Godano, C., Grasso, J. R., and Lippiello, E.:
Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting,
Phys. Rep., 628, 1–91, 2016.
De Santis, A., Cianchini, G., Favali, P., Beranzoli, L., and Boschi, E.:
The Gutenberg–Richter law and entropy of earthquakes: Two case studies in central Italy, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 101, 1386–1395, 2011.
Klein, E., Duputel, Z., Zigioni, D., Vigny, C., Boy, J. P., Doubre, C., and Meneses, G.: Deep Transient Slow Slip Detected by Survey GPS in the Region of Atacama, Chile, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12263–12273, 2018.
Lippiello, E., Corral, A., Bottiglieri, M., Godano, C., and de Arcangelis, L.:
Scaling behavior of the intertime distribution: Influence of large shocks
and time scale in the Omori law, Phys. Rev. E, 86, 086119, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.86.066119,
2012.
Luenberg, D. G.:
Information Science, 2nd edn., Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, 2006.
Manshour, P., Saberi, S., Sahimi, M., Peinke, J., Pacheco, A. F., and
Tabar, M. R. M.: Turbulencelike behavior of seismic time series,
Phys. Rev. Lett., 102, 014101, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.014101, 2009.
Métois, M., Socquet, A., and Vigny, C.:
Interseismic coupling, segmentation and mechanical behavior
of the central Chile subduction zone, J. Geophys. Res., 117,
B03406, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB008736, 2012.
Métois, M., Socquet, A., Vigny, C., Carrizo, D., S. Peyrat, S., Delorme, A.,
Maureira, E., Valderas-Bermejo, M.-C., and Ortega, I.:
Revisiting the North Chile seismic gap segmentation using
GPS-derived interseismic coupling,
Geophys. J. Int., 194, 1283–1294, 2013.
Miranda, R. A., Rempel, E. L., and Chian, A. C.-L.:
On-off intermittency and amplitude-phase synchronization in Keplerian shear flows,
Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc., 448, 804–813, 2015.
Nicolis, O. and Mateu, J.:
2D Anisotropic wavelet entropy with an application to earthquakes in Chile, Entropy, 17, 4155–4172, 2015.
Roederer, J. G.: Information and its role in Nature, 2nd edn., Springer, Heidelberg, 2005.
Rundle, J. B., Luginbuhl, M., Giguere, A., and Turcotte, D. L.: Natural Time,
Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities, Pure Appl. Geophys., 175, 647–660, 2018.
Rundle, J. B., Giguere, A., Turcotte, D. L., Crutchfield, J. P., and Donnellan, A.: Global SeismicNowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy, Earth Space Sci., 6, 191–197, 2019.
Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., Varotsos, P. A., Nagao, T., Kamogawa, M.,
Tanaka, H., and Uyeda, S.: Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations
of seismicity before majorearthquakes in Japan, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 13734–13738, 2013.
Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., Varotsos, P. A., Nagao, T., Kamogawa, M., and
Uyeda, S.: Spatiotemporal variations of seismicity before major
earthquakes in the Japanese area and their relation with the
epicentral locations, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 986–989, 2015.
Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., Mintzelas, A., and Papadopoulou, K. A.:
Micro-scale, mid-scale, and macro-scale in global seismicity identified by
empirical mode decomposi-tion and their multifractal characteristics,
Sci. Rep., 8, 9206, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27567-y, 2018a.
Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., and Varotsos, P. A.: A remarkable change of the
entropyof seismicity in natural time under time reversal before the
super-giant M9 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, EPL-Europys. Lett., 124, 29001, https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/124/29001, 2018b.
Sarlis, N. V., Varotsos, P. A., Skordas, E. S., Uyeda, S., Zlotnicki, J.,
Nagao, T., Rybin, A., Lazaridou-Varotsos, M. S., and Papadopoulou, K. A.:
Seismic Electric Signals in seismicprone areas, Earthquake Sci., 31,
44–51, https://doi.org/10.29382/eqs-2018-0005-5, 2018c.
Shannon, C. E.: A mathematical theory of communication,
Bell. Syst. Tech. J., 27, 379–423, 1948.
Telesca, L., Lapenna, V., and Lovallo, M.: Information entropy analysis of seismicity of Umbria-Marche region (Central Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 691–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-691-2004, 2004.
Telesca, L., Lovallo, M., Mohamed, A. E. A., ElGabry, M., El-hady, S., Abou
Elenean, K. M., and ElBary, R. E. F.:
Informational analysis of seismic sequences by applying the Fisher Information Measure and the Shannon entropy: An application to the 2004–2010 seismicity of Aswan area (Egypt), Physica A, 391, 2889–2897, 2012.
Telesca, L., Lovallo, M., Chamoli, A., Dimri, V. P., and Srivastava, K.:
Fisher-Shannon analysis of seismograms of tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic earthquakes, Physica A, 392, 3424–3429, 2013.
Telesca, L., Lovallo, M., Romano, G., Konstantinou, K. I., Hsu, H.-L., and Chen, C.-C.:
Using the informational Fisher-Shannon method to investigate the influence of long-term deformation processes on geoelectrical signals: An example from the Taiwan orogeny,
Physica A, 414, 340–351, 2014.
Vallianatos, F., Papadakis, G., and Michas, G.:
Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics,
P. R. Soc. A, 472, 20160497, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2016.0497, 2016.
Varotsos, P. and Alexopoulos, K.: Physical properties of the variations of the electricfield of the earth preceding earthquakes, I. Tectonophysics, 110, 73–98, 1984a.
Varotsos, P. and Alexopoulos, K.: Physical properties of the variations of the electricfield of the earth preceding earthquakes, II. Determination of epicenter and magnitude, Tectonophysics, 110, 99–125, 1984b.
Varotsos, P., Alexopoulos, K., Nomicos, K. and Lazaridou, M.: Earthquake prediction andelectric signals, Nature, 322, 120, https://doi.org/10.1038/322120a0, 1986.
Varotsos, P. and Lazaridou, M.: Latest aspects of earthquake Prediction in Greecebased on Seismic Electric Signals. I, Tectonophysics, 188, 321–347, 1991.
Varotsos, P., Alexopoulos, K., and Lazaridou, M.: Latest aspects of earthquake predictionin Greece based on Seismic Electric Signals II, Tectonophysics, 224, 1–37 1993.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N., and Skordas, E.: Spatiotemporal complexity aspects on the Interrelation
between Seismic Electric Signals and seismicity, Practica of Athens Academy,
76, 294–321, 2001.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., and Skordas, E. S.: Long-range correlations in the electric
signals that precede rupture, Phys. Rev. E, 66, 011902, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.66.011902, 2002.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., and Skordas, E. S.: Attempt to distinguish electric signals of a dichotomous nature, Phys. Rev. E 68, 031106, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.68.031106, 2003.
Varotsos, P.: The Physics of Seismic Electric Signals, TerraPub,
Tokyo, 338 pp., 2005.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., Skordas, E. S., and Lazaridou, M. S.: Identifying sudden cardiac death risk and specifying its occurrence time by analyzing electrocardiograms in natural time, Appl. Phys. Lett., 91, 064106, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2768928, 2007.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., and Skordas, E. S.: Natural Time Analysis: The new view
of time. Precursory Seismic Electric Signals, Earthquakes and other Complex Time
Series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2011a.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., and Skordas, E. S.:
Scale-specific order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time
before mainshocks, EPL-Europhys. Lett., 96, 59002, https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/96/59002, 2011b.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N.V, Skordas, E. S., Uyeda, S., and Kamogawa, M.:
Natural time analysis of critical phenomena, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 11361–11364, 2011c.
Varotsos, P. A., Sarlis, N. V., and Skordas, E. S.: Phenomena preceding major earthquakes interconnected through a physical model, Ann. Geophys., 37, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-315-2019, 2019.
Venegas-Aravena, P., Cordaro, E. G., and Laroze, D.: A review and upgrade of the lithospheric dynamics in context of the seismo-electromagnetic theory, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1639–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1639-2019, 2019.
Vogel, E. E. and Saravia, G.:
Information Theory Applied to Econophysics: Stock Market Behaviors,
European, J. Phys. B, 87, 1–15, 2014.
Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., Bachmann, F., Fierro, B., and Fischer, J.:
Phase Transitions in Edwards-Anderson Model by Means of Information Theory,
Physica A, 388, 4075–4082, 2009.
Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., and Cortez, L. V.:
Data Compressor Designed to Improve Recognition of Magnetic Phases,
Physica A, 391, 1591–1601, 2012.
Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., Astete, J., Díaz, J., and Riadi, F.:
Information Theory as a Tool to Improve Individual Pensions: The Chilean Case,
Physica A, 424, 372–382, 2015.
Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., Pasten, D., and Munoz, V.:
Time-series analysis of earthquake sequences by means of information recognizer,
Tectonophysics, 712, 723–728, 2017a.
Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., and Ramirez-Pastor, A. J.:
Phase diagrams in a system of long rods on two-dimensional lattices by means of information theory,
Phys. Rev. E, 96, 062133, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.96.062133, 2017b.
Vogel, E. E., Saravia, G., Kobe, S., Schumann, R., and Schuster, R.:
A Novel Method to Optimize Electricity Generation from Wind Energy,
Renew. Energ., 126, 724–735, 2018.
University of Chile: Web site of Servicio Sismológico Nacional (Chile), available at:
http://csn.uchile.cl (last access: 31 October 2020),
2019.
Xi, H. and Gunton, J. D.:
Spatiotemporal chaos in a model of Rayleigh-Bénard convection,
Phys. Rev. E, 52, 4963–4975, 1995.
Zhang, Y. and Meng, Q.: A statistical analysis of TIR anomalies extracted by RSTs in relation to an earthquake in the Sichuan area using MODIS LST data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 535–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-535-2019, 2019.
Short summary
The Nazca–South American subduction front is one of the most active in the world. We have chosen four zones along this front to do a comparative study on possible different dynamics. Data are public and well tested in the last decades. The methods are original since mutability and Shannon entropy are not always used in this kind of problem, and, to our knowledge, this is the first time they are combined. The north of Chile could be a zone with greater chances of a large earthquake.
The Nazca–South American subduction front is one of the most active in the world. We have...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint