Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309
25 Nov 2019
 | 25 Nov 2019
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca-Southamerican subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability

Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian

Abstract. Four geographical zones are defined along the trench that is formed due to the subduction of the Nazca Plate underneath the South American plate; they are denoted A, B, C and D from North to South; zones A, B and D have had a major earthquake after 2010 (8.0), while zone C has not, thus offering a contrast for comparison. For each zone a sequence of intervals between consecutive seisms with magnitudes ≥ 3.0 is formed and then characterized by Shannon entropy and mutability. These methods show correlation after a major earthquake in what is known as the aftershock regime but they show independence otherwise. Exponential adjustments for these parameters reveal that mutability offers a wider range for the parameters characterizing the recovery to the values of the parameters defining the background activity for each zone before a large earthquake. It is found that the background activity is particularly high for zone A, still recovering for Zone B, reaching values similar to those of Zone A in the case of Zone C (without recent major earthquake) and oscillating around moderate values for Zone D. It is discussed how this can be an indication for more risk of an important future seism in the cases of Zones A and C. The similarities and differences between Shannon entropy and mutability are discussed and explained.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian

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Short summary
Earthquakes are natural hazardous phenomena that can bring death, destruction, economical crisis, migrations and other social implications. This paper aims to understand one of the main causes for seismic activity: subduction of one Earth plate underneath another one in a stochastic way. The time series associated to this activity provides information which we have analyzed it by new techniques. This allows us to estimate where important earthquakes can occur although we cannot yet say when.
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