04 Oct 2023
 | 04 Oct 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia

Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karayev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro

Abstract. Central Asia is an area characterized by complex tectonic and active deformation, largely due to the relative convergent motion between India and Arabia with Eurasia. The resulting compressional tectonic regime is responsible for the development of significant seismic activity, which, along with other natural hazards such as mass movements and river flooding, contributes to increased risk to local populations. Although several studies have been conducted on individual perils at the local and at national levels, the last published regional model for the whole Central Asia, developed under the EMCA project ("Earthquake Model of Central Asia"), is almost ten years old.

With the goal of developing a new comprehensive multi-risk model, that is uniform and consistent across the five Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, the European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), funded the regional program SFRARR ("Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia"). The activity was led by a consortium of scientists from international research institutions, from both the public and private sectors, with contribution from experts of the local scientific community.

This study presents the main results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) conducted as part of the SFRARR program to develop the new risk model for Central Asia. The proposed PSHA model was developed using state-of-the-art methods and calibrated based on the most up-to-date information available for the region, including a novel homogenized earthquake catalog compiled from global and local sources and a database of active faults with associated slip rate information.

Valerio Poggi et al.

Status: open (until 02 Jan 2024)

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Valerio Poggi et al.

Valerio Poggi et al.


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Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was recently developed as part of the "Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia" (SFRARR) program, promoted by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR. This paper describes the preparation of the source model and presents the main results of the probabilistic earthquake model for the Central Asian countries.