Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia
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- Final revised paper (published on 21 Feb 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 04 Oct 2023)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2023-132', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Jan 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Valerio Poggi, 13 May 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2023-132', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Feb 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Valerio Poggi, 13 May 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (24 May 2024) by Filippos Vallianatos
AR by Valerio Poggi on behalf of the Authors (18 Jul 2024)
Author's response
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ED: Publish as is (06 Aug 2024) by Filippos Vallianatos
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 Aug 2024) by Filippos Vallianatos
RR by sasan motaghed (04 Sep 2024)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (27 Sep 2024) by Filippos Vallianatos
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (02 Oct 2024) by Philip Ward (Executive editor)
AR by Valerio Poggi on behalf of the Authors (08 Oct 2024)
Author's response
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The paper presents a new seismic hazard model for Central Asia, released by an international cooperation between Italian experts and local experts, funded by European Union.
The study follows the state of the art in seismic hazard assessment with many data collected and updated during the elaboration of the model.
GENERAL COMMENTS
The number of citations is extremely small with respect to the argument. Seismic hazard assessment is a complex procedure that consider the previous experiences and the many data used for building the model; many affirmations made by the authors without an adequate reference must be referred to the authors themselves, but often this is not the case. In the following some examples.
The previous model for this area has been released more then 10 years ago (in 2012 the EMCA project released its model in the frame of the GEM activities). As the authors refer, after 2012 many studies have been realized in the single countries: in the period 2018-2021 all the country involved in this project were studied by several authors, in some cases with applications of the model to the building code. So, it’s not clear why a new study is necessary and what are the main criticalities of the previous works, if any. Please, add a comment on this issue.
NOTES ON THE MANUSCRIPT
On row 107, the authors comment that the hybrid approach allows a more realistic representation of the seismicity. In my opinion, in general this is true, but it depends on the practice of design large seismic source area due to the poor knowledge about the seismogenic processes.
Section 3 contains very few information about the definition of the source models. As far as I understood, the definition of seismic source zones (figure 1) is based only on seismic information. There is not any seismotectonic consideration. Is it correct?
Row 132: what does it means that this is the accepted version of the source model? From whom? Is it this information useful or necessary?
Also, the definition of the tectonic groups it’s not fully explained. When the authors write that the groups “are assumed to have comparable behavior…” on what basis their judgment is based? Only the earthquake catalog or other data? It is also missing any comment or comparison with previous source model.
About Section 3.2 (Deep seismicity zones), in figure 2 the position of the letters L and H are over the same zone. I understand that the two zones are overlapping, but from the caption I assume that the letter H refers to the wider area with the pale color.
At row 147, I suggest the use of the term “deeper” instead of “less”. Even if English is not my mother tongue, as written I understand the deep earthquakes occur at 20 or 30 km.
Section 4.2 (Occurrence rate model). The definition of seismicity rates is crucial in any seismic hazard model and object of many assumptions and operational choices by the modelers. In this field, it is normal to refer to analogue experiences. On the contrary, in this section there is only one reference about the Mmax estimation. I would like ask to the authors what is the approach adopted for the declustering; most used approaches (Gardner & Knopoff, 1974 or Reasemberg & Jones, 1985, among many others) lead to numbers of removed events very different.
The determination of b-value in two steps was adopted in many studies. Anyone to mention?
At row 184 it is reported a sentence that I have to dispute: “It should be additionally noted that the width of the non cumulative magnitude bins is not required to be uniform”. In my opinion, based on more than 30 years of expertise, It’s the first time that I read something like this. The bin width is a delicate point of the analysis, since it determines the b-value (Marzocchi et al., 2020; doi:10.1093/gji/ggz541). Even more so, the variable width is not acceptable. Let’s suppose that in the bin for magnitude 7 +- 0.5, all the events reported in the catalog have magnitude greater than 7: if you use 2 bins (with width 0.5) instead of 1 (with width 1), you will obtain 2 points with the same value in the cumulative curve, and this change the resulting fit. For me the assumption made by the authors it’s not acceptable.
Row 187: It’s true that most of rates models start at magnitude 4.5, mainly for completeness reasons. In some cases, we know damaging earthquakes for magnitude 4 or less (as an example in volcanic areas with very shallow hypocenters) Could you quote any papers that affirms what you are saying?
I understand that Mmax is based only on the information reported in the catalog, i.e., the maximum observed magnitude. Why was the maximum geological magnitude not considered? One example is contained in Woessner et al., 2015 (doi:10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1). Or do you think that magnitudes larger than the observed events are not possible?
Row 270: the smearing effect due to the adoption of seismic areas depends on the approach adopted to design the areas: smaller are the areas and more the hazard is concentrated on the epicentral areas. The design of areas should contain a sort of “prediction” for those zones with poor knowledge about the historical seismicity.
Figure 10: I wonder why the tectonic regions are different with respect to the groups of figure 1. As an example, source zone 5 in figure 1 has a different classification in figure 10 if I consider the other zones of group A. There is an explanation?
Row 371: what are the considerations that allow you to say that in stable continental crust zone an intermediate behavior between active shallow crust and stable crust is expected? I don’t say that it is not true, but I would like that you support this sentence with a reference or your comment.
Section 8. I don’t find any description in the manuscript about the 3 options for the assignation of b-value (b, b+0.5, b-0.5). With regard to Mmax, on contrary, in the manuscript I found only a sentence about the branch with Mmax+0.1. I think that the whole logic tree has to be described together with the strategies adopted for assigning weights.
Row 415: this is a clarification. The results of the calculation are only the hazard curves (not only in OpenQuake engine). Maps and UHS are possible representations!
Section 10. I don’t understand why the presentation of the model expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity is in this section and it’s not in ad hoc section.
Row 434: “Comparison with previous PSHA studies shows general agreement”. I don’t see the comparison! In the Supplement it is reported the map of GSHAP, released 25 years ago. Probably this is not the best test… In my opinion the comparison has to be performed with EMCA project (most recent study for the same area) or with recent national projects. Not only: I expect a quantitative comparison, not only a comparison of two figures.
Regarding the intensity maps, at row 464 you write: “All intensity maps are consistent with a shear wave reference velocity of 800m/s”. This is a strong statement and I ask you to cite a paper or discuss it. Most localities are built near rivers for access to water; this means soil conditions other than rocky ones.
In the conclusions, again, very few reference, but paper by Poggi et al.. When you talk of the strategies for assess seismic hazard at national scale, for example, you could quote Gerstenberger et al., 2020 (doi:10.1029/2019RG000653). For the international project, also, the references for CCRIF and ARC projects are missing.