Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia

Poggi, Valerio; Parolai, Stefano; Silacheva, Natalya; Ischuk, Anatoly; Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek; Kobuliev, Zainalobudin; Ismailov, Vakhitkhan; Ibragimov, Roman; Karaev, Japar; Ceresa, Paola; Santulin, Marco; Bazzurro, Paolo

doi:10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Regionally consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 2

Research article

|

21 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 21 Feb 2025

Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia

Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro

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Nov 2024	26	4	1	31
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Jan 2025	12	5	0	17
Feb 2025	137	27	4	168
Mar 2025	126	21	1	148
Apr 2025	101	30	3	134
May 2025	79	15	2	96
Jun 2025	105	34	3	142
Jul 2025	96	28	3	127
Aug 2025	95	33	2	130
Sep 2025	88	22	14	124
Oct 2025	116	33	1	150
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Dec 2025	255	62	14	331
Jan 2026	168	62	15	245
Feb 2026	257	359	11	627
Mar 2026	83	44	1	128

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Oct 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2023	184	36	5	225
Nov 2023	39	13	3	55
Dec 2023	13	9	1	23
Jan 2024	30	11	2	43
Feb 2024	21	9	5	35
Mar 2024	23	7	3	33
Apr 2024	24	9	9	42
May 2024	34	17	8	59
Jun 2024	43	5	2	50
Jul 2024	50	5	3	58
Aug 2024	27	8	3	38
Sep 2024	17	7	1	25
Oct 2024	22	6	0	28
Nov 2024	26	4	1	31
Dec 2024	27	14	1	42
Jan 2025	12	5	0	17
Feb 2025	137	27	4	168
Mar 2025	126	21	1	148
Apr 2025	101	30	3	134
May 2025	79	15	2	96
Jun 2025	105	34	3	142
Jul 2025	96	28	3	127
Aug 2025	95	33	2	130
Sep 2025	88	22	14	124
Oct 2025	116	33	1	150
Nov 2025	204	62	2	268
Dec 2025	255	62	14	331
Jan 2026	168	62	15	245
Feb 2026	257	359	11	627
Mar 2026	83	44	1	128

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Short summary

A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was developed under the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, supported by the European Union, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This paper outlines the preparation of the source model and presents key results of the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Central Asian countries.


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