Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia

Poggi, Valerio; Parolai, Stefano; Silacheva, Natalya; Ischuk, Anatoly; Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek; Kobuliev, Zainalobudin; Ismailov, Vakhitkhan; Ibragimov, Roman; Karaev, Japar; Ceresa, Paola; Santulin, Marco; Bazzurro, Paolo

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Regionally consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 2

Research article

|

21 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 21 Feb 2025

Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia

Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-817-2025-supplement

Data sets

Central Asia PSHA OpenQuake model files World Bank Group https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0064169/Central-Asia-PSHA-OpenQuake-model-files

Central Asia earthquake catalogue World Bank Group https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0064167/Central-Asia-earthquake-catalogue

Central Asia seismic fault database World Bank Group https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0064168/Central-Asia-seismic-fault-database

Central Asia seismic hazard curves World Bank Group https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0064237/Central-Asia-seismic-hazard-curves

Central Asia Seismic Hazard World Bank Group https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0064114/Central-Asia-Seismic-Hazard

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Short summary

A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was developed under the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, supported by the European Union, the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This paper outlines the preparation of the source model and presents key results of the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for the Central Asian countries.