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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-96
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-96
09 Jul 2024
 | 09 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Modeling Seismic Hazard and Landslide Potentials in Northwestern Yunnan, China: Exploring Complex Fault Systems with multi-segment rupturing in a Block Rotational Tectonic Zone

Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu

Abstract. The Northwestern Yunnan Region (NWYR), located on the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, is characterized by a combination of low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse, giving rise to a complex network of active faults. This presents significant seismic hazards, particularly due to the potential for multi-segment ruptures and resulting landslides, as demonstrated by the historical 1515 M7.8 Yongshen Earthquake. This article presented a novel seismic hazard modeling study for the NWYR, integrating fault slip parameters and assessing multi-segment rupturing risks. Among the four potential multi-segment rupture combination models examined, Model 1, characterized by multi-segment rupture combinations on single faults, particularly fracturing the Zhongdian fault, emerges as the most suitable for the NWYR, supported by the alignment of modeled seismicity rates with fault slip rates. Our analysis demonstrated that peak ground-motion acceleration values, calculated with a 475-year return period from modeled seismicity rates, exhibited a strong correlation with fault distribution, averagely higher than the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map. Furthermore, we conducted simulations to forecast landslide occurrence probabilities across our peak ground-motion acceleration distribution map. Our findings underscored that the observed combinations of multi-segment ruptures and their associated behaviors were in alignment with the small block rotation triggered by the gravitational collapse of the Tibetan Plateau. This result highlighted the intricate interplay between multi-segment rupturing hazards and regional geological dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu

Status: open (until 20 Aug 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2024-96', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Jul 2024 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', jia cheng, 15 Jul 2024 reply
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', jia cheng, 16 Jul 2024 reply
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu
Jia Cheng, Chong Xu, Xiwei Xu, Shimin Zhang, and Pengyu Zhu

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Short summary
The Northwestern Yunnan Region (NWYR), with a complex network of active faults, presents significant seismic hazards such as multi-segment ruptures and landslides. This article introduces a new seismic hazard model, which integrates fault slip parameters to assess the risks associated with multi-segment ruptures. The results reveal the intricate relationship between these ruptures and the regional small block rotation induced by regional low-crustal flow and gravitational collapse.
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