Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Abstract. Evaluating the performance of probabilistic seismic hazard models against recorded data and their potential to forecast future earthquake’s ground shaking is an emerging research topic. In this study, we evaluate and test the results of the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20; Danciu et al., 2021) against observations for several cities in Romania. The dataset consists of ground shaking recordings and macroseismic observations, which extend the observational time-period to few hundred years. The full distribution of the hazard curves, depicting the epistemic uncertainties of the hazard at the given location was considered and the testing was done for peak ground acceleration (PGA) values i.e., 0.1 g and 0.2 g.
The results show close agreement between the ESHM20 and the observations for the cities located near the Vrancea intermediate-depth source (VRI) for both selected PGA levels. ESHM20 appears to overestimate the VRI recorded ground motions along the Carpathian Mountain Range and underestimate those at the far-field locations outside the Carpathians. Some of these differences might be attributed to the uncertainties in data conversion, local site effects, or differences in the attenuation patterns of the ground motion models. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates, but these results must be interpreted with caution given the limited time and spatial coverage of the observations.
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