Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 01 Mar 2019
| 01 Mar 2019
Simulating the effects of weather and climate on large wildfires in France
Irstea, Mediterranean ecosystems and risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
Thomas Curt
Irstea, Mediterranean ecosystems and risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
Anne Ganteaume
Irstea, Mediterranean ecosystems and risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
Eric Maillé
Irstea, Mediterranean ecosystems and risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
Marielle Jappiot
Irstea, Mediterranean ecosystems and risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
Adeline Bellet
Irstea, Mediterranean ecosystems and risks, Aix-en-Provence, France
Related authors
Luiz Felipe Galizia, Thomas Curt, Renaud Barbero, and Marcos Rodrigues
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of three remotely sensed fire datasets which have recently emerged as an important resource to improve our understanding of fire regimes. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed fire datasets can be used to proxy variations in fire activity on monthly and annual timescales; however, caution is advised when drawing information from smaller fires (< 100 ha) across the Mediterranean region.
Anne Ganteaume and Renaud Barbero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1055–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term georeferenced time series showed spatiotemporal variations in large fires (LF ≥ 100 ha) throughout the French Mediterranean with 21 % of the total LF burned area occurring on surface previously burned. The region was impacted up to five to six times by recurrent LFs, the east experiencing fewer but larger LFs despite fire weather conditions decreasing eastwards. The efficiency of fire management has improved but LF outbreaks during extreme weather conditions remain a major concern.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Luiz Felipe Galizia, Thomas Curt, Renaud Barbero, and Marcos Rodrigues
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to provide a quantitative evaluation of three remotely sensed fire datasets which have recently emerged as an important resource to improve our understanding of fire regimes. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed fire datasets can be used to proxy variations in fire activity on monthly and annual timescales; however, caution is advised when drawing information from smaller fires (< 100 ha) across the Mediterranean region.
Anne Ganteaume and Renaud Barbero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1055–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term georeferenced time series showed spatiotemporal variations in large fires (LF ≥ 100 ha) throughout the French Mediterranean with 21 % of the total LF burned area occurring on surface previously burned. The region was impacted up to five to six times by recurrent LFs, the east experiencing fewer but larger LFs despite fire weather conditions decreasing eastwards. The efficiency of fire management has improved but LF outbreaks during extreme weather conditions remain a major concern.
Guillaume Evin, Thomas Curt, and Nicolas Eckert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2641–2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2641-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Very large wildfires have high human, economic, and ecological impacts. Preventing such events is a major objective of the new fire policy set up in France in 1994, which is oriented towards fast and massive fire suppression. This study investigates the effect of this policy on the largest fires. We estimate the burned area corresponding to fires that occur every 5, 20, and 50 years on average (so-called return periods) in southern France.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Julien Ruffault, Thomas Curt, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, Vincent Moron, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 847–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme wildfires events (EWE) have been recorded during the past year in the Mediterranean. By analyzing the climatic conditions associated with the French 2003 and 2016 fires seasons, we found that EWE were associated to two distinct climatic events whose frequencies are both expected to increase with global changes: hot droughts and long droughts. These results suggest that EWE are likely to become more common in the future and will certainly challenge fire management.
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
How hard do avalanche practitioners tap during snow stability tests?
A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers
A glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment for the Phochhu river basin, Bhutan
AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping
Modelling the vulnerability of urban settings to wildland–urban interface fires in Chile
Modeling of indoor 222Rn in data-scarce regions: an interactive dashboard approach for Bogotá, Colombia
A regional early warning for slushflow hazard
A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada
Glide-snow avalanches: A mechanical, threshold-based release area model
Improving the fire weather index system for peatlands using peat-specific hydrological input data
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice
Fluid conduits and shallow-reservoir structure defined by geoelectrical tomography at the Nirano Salse (Italy)
Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model
Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge
Reduced-order digital twin and latent data assimilation for global wildfire prediction
A user perspective on the avalanche danger scale – insights from North America
Improving fire severity prediction in south-eastern Australia using vegetation specific information
Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data
Evaluation of low-cost Raspberry Pi sensors for structure-from-motion reconstructions of glacier calving fronts
Temporal evolution of crack propagation characteristics in a weak snowpack layer: conditions of crack arrest and sustained propagation
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger
Equivalent hazard magnitude scale
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia
Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Multi-method monitoring of rockfall activity along the classic route up Mont Blanc (4809 m a.s.l.) to encourage adaptation by mountaineers
Wildfire–atmosphere interaction index for extreme-fire behaviour
How is avalanche danger described in textual descriptions in avalanche forecasts in Switzerland? Consistency between forecasters and avalanche danger
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-34, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-34, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground-snow interface and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction homogeneity while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-69, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A framework combines a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference Normalized Burning Ratio (dNBR)) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under future projected climate conditions.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1015–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1015-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 445–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-445-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Tomàs Artés, Marc Castellnou, Tracy Houston Durrant, and Jesús San-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Several fire danger indices are routinely used by firefighting services but are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at the global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index for deep moist convection, the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires to use along with traditional fire danger indices.
Veronika Hutter, Frank Techel, and Ross S. Purves
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3879–3897, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3879-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
How is avalanche danger described in public avalanche forecasts? We analyzed 6000 textual descriptions of avalanche danger in Switzerland, taking the perspective of the forecaster. Avalanche danger was described rather consistently, although the results highlight the difficulty of communicating conditions that are neither rare nor frequent, neither small nor large. The study may help to refine the ways in which avalanche danger could be communicated to the public.
Cited articles
Abadie, J., Dupouey, J.-L., Avon, C., Rochel, X., Tatoni, T., and
Bergès,
L.: Forest recovery since 1860 in a Mediterranean region: drivers and
implications for land use and land cover spatial distribution, Landscape
Ecol., 33, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0601-0, 2017. a
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global emergence of
anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2018. a
Alonso-Canas, I. and Chuvieco, E.: Global burned area mapping from
ENVISAT-MERIS and MODIS active fire data, Remote Sens. Environ.,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.03.011, 2015. a
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J., Steel, E., and Larkin, N.: Modeling very
large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and
climate forcing, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 124009,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009, 2014. a, b
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J., Kolden, C., Hegewisch, K., Larkin, N., and
Podschwit, H.: Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very
large-fires in the Eastern United States, Int. J.
Climatol., 35, 2180–2186, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4090, 2015a. a
Barbero, R., Abatzoglou, J., Larkin, N., Kolden, C., and Stocks, B.: Climate
change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous
United States, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 892–899,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15083, 2015b. a
Barbu, A. L., Calvet, J.-C., Mahfouf, J.-F., Albergel, C., and Lafont, S.:
Assimilation of Soil Wetness Index and Leaf Area Index into the ISBA-A-gs
land surface model: grassland case study, Biogeosciences, 8, 1971–1986,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-1971-2011, 2011. a, b
Boulanger, Y., Parisien, M.-A., and Wang, X.: Model-specification
uncertainty
in future area burned by wildfires in Canada, Int. J.
Wildland Fire, 27, 164–175, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17123, 2018. a
Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N. S., Rich, P. M., Price, K. P., Allen, C. D.,
Balice,
R. G., Romme, W. H., Kastens, J. H., Floyd, M. L., Belnap, J., Anderson,
J. J., Myers, O. B., and Meyer, C. W.: Regional vegetation die-off in
response to global-change-type drought, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 102, 15144–15148, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0505734102, 2005. a
Byun, H. R. and Wilhite, D. A.: Objective quantification of drought severity
and duration, J. Climate, 12, 2747–2756,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2747:OQODSA>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Chuvieco, E., Yue, C., Heil, A., Mouillot, F., Alonso-Canas, I., Padilla, M.,
Pereira, J. M., Oom, D., and Tansey, K.: A new global burned area product for
climate assessment of fire impacts, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 25, 619–629,
https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12440, 2016 (data available at:
https://geogra.uah.es/fire_cci/, last access: 28 February 2019). a, b
Costafreda-Aumedes, S., Comas, C., and Vega-Garcia, C.: Human-caused fire
occurrence modelling in perspective: A review, Int. J.
Wildland Fire, 26, 983–998, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17026, 2017. a
Cramer, W., Guiot, J., Fader, M., Garrabou, J., Gattuso, J.-P., Iglesias, A.,
Lange, M. A., Lionello, P., Llasat, M. C., Paz, S., Peñuelas, J.,
Snoussi, M., Toreti, A., Tsimplis, M. N., and Xoplaki, E.: Climate change
and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean,
Nature Climate Change, 8, 972–980, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2, 2018. a
Curt, T. and Frejaville, T.: Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How
Far
is it Efficient and Sustainable?, Risk Analysis, 38, 472–488, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12855,
2017. a, b
Curt, T., Fréjaville, T., and Lahaye, S.: Modelling the spatial
patterns
of ignition causes and fire regime features in southern France: Implications
for fire prevention policy, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 25,
785–796, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15205, 2016. a
Dimitrakopoulos, A. P., Bemmerzouk, A. M., and Mitsopoulos, I. D.:
Evaluation
of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean
environment, Meteorol. Appl., 18, 83–93, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.214,
2011. a
Dowdy, A. J., Mills, G. A., Finkele, K., and de Groot, W.: Index sensitivity
analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur
Forest Fire Danger Index, Meteorol. Appl., 17, 298–312,
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.170, 2010. a
Dupire, S., Curt, T., and Bigot, S.: Spatio-temporal trends in fire weather
in
the French Alps, Sci. Total Environ., 595, 801–817,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.027, 2017. a, b, c
Farahmand, A. and AghaKouchak, A.: A generalized framework for deriving
nonparametric standardized drought indicators, Adv. Water Resour.,
76, 140–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.11.012, 2015. a
Fox, D., Carrega, P., Ren, Y., Caillouet, P., Bouillon, C., and Robert, S.:
How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE
France (1990–2013), Sci. Total Environ., 621, 120–129,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.174, 2018. a, b
Fréjaville, T. and Curt, T.: Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in
fire
regime and climate: defining the pyroclimates of south-eastern France
(Mediterranean Basin), Climatic Change, 129, 239–251, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1332-3,
2015. a, b
Fréjaville, T. and Curt, T.: Seasonal changes in the human alteration
of
fire regimes beyond the climate forcing, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 035006,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5d23, 2017. a
Frejaville, T., Curt, T., and Carcaillet, C.: Bark flammability as a
fire-response trait for subalpine trees, Front. Plant Sci., 4, 466,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2013.00466, 2013. a
Ganteaume, A. and Barbero, R.: Contrasting large fire regimes in the French
Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-263, in review, 2018. a, b, c
Ganteaume, A. and Guerra, F.: Explaining the spatio-seasonal variation of
fires by their causes: The case of southeastern France, Appl. Geogr.,
90, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.11.012, 2018. a, b, c
Ganteaume, A. and Jappiot, M.: What causes large fires in Southern France,
Forest Ecol. Manage., 294, 76–85,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.055, 2013. a
Ganteaume, A. and Long-Fournel, M.: Driving factors of fire density can
spatially vary at the local scale in south-eastern France, Int.
J. Wildland Fire, 24, 650–664, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13209, 2015. a
Ganteaume, A., Camia, A., Jappiot, M., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Long-Fournel,
M.,
and Lampin, C.: A review of the main driving factors of forest fire ignition
over Europe, Environ. Manage., 51, 651–662,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9961-z, 2013. a
Guerreiro, S. B., Dawson, R. J., Kilsby, C., Lewis, E., and Ford, A.: Future
heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities, Environ.
Res. Lett., 13, 034009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad3, 2018. a
Guns, M. and Vanacker, V.: Logistic regression applied to natural hazards:
rare event logistic regression with replications, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci., 12, 1937–1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1937-2012, 2012. a
Hernandez, C., Drobinski, P., and Turquety, S.: How much does weather control
fire size and intensity in the Mediterranean region?, Ann. Geophys., 33,
931–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015, 2015a. a, b
Hernandez, C., Keribin, C., Drobinski, P., and Turquety, S.: Statistical
modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological
forecasting of summer extreme fire risk, Ann. Geophys., 33, 1495–1506,
https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-1495-2015, 2015b. a, b
Jongman, R. H., Bunce, R. G., Metzger, M. J., Mücher, C. A., Howard,
D. C., and Mateus, V. L.: Objectives and applications of a statistical
environmental stratification of Europe, Landscape Ecol., 21, 409–419,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-005-6428-0, 2006. a, b
Keating, K. A. and Cherry, S.: Use and Interpretation of Logistic Regression
in Habitat-Selection Studies, J. Wildlife Manage., 68,
774–789, 2004. a
Lahaye, S. A., Curt, T. D., and Fre, T.: What are the drivers of dangerous
fires in Mediterranean France ?, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 27, 155–163,
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17087, 2017. a, b
Lampin-Maillet, C., Long-Fournel, M., Ganteaume, A., Jappiot, M., and
Ferrier,
J. P.: Land cover analysis in wildland-urban interfaces according to
wildfire risk: A case study in the South of France, Forest Ecol.
Manag., 261, 2200–2213, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.11.022, 2011. a
Littell, J. S.: Drought and Fire in the Western USA: Is Climate Attribution
Enough?, Current Climate Change Reports, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0109-y, Springer International Publishing, 2018. a, b
Modugno, S., Balzter, H., Cole, B., and Borrelli, P.: Mapping regional
patterns of large forest fires in WildlandeUrban Interface areas in Europe,
J. Environ. Manage., 172, 112–116,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.02.013, 2016. a
Murtaugh, P. A.: Performance of several variable-selection methods applied
to
real ecological data, Ecol. Lett., 12, 1061–1068,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01361.x, 2009. a
Nogueira, J., Rambal, S., Barbosa, J., and Mouillot, F.: Spatial Pattern of
the Seasonal Drought/Burned Area Relationship across Brazilian Biomes:
Sensitivity to Drought Metrics and Global Remote-Sensing Fire Products,
Climate, 5, 42, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020042, 2017. a
Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J. F.: The ISBA land surface parameterisation
scheme, Global Planet. Change, 13, 145–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00043-7,
1996. a
Pausas, J. G., Llovet, J., Rodrigo, A., and Vallejo, R.: Are wildfires a
disaster in the Mediterranean basin? A review, Int. J. Wildand Fire, 17, 713–723, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07151, 2008. a
Podschwit, H. R., Larkin, N. K., Steel, E. A., Cullen, A., and Alvarado, E.:
Multi-Model Forecasts of Very-Large Fire Occurences during the End of the
21st Century, Climate, 6, 100, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040100, 2018. a, b
Riley, K. and Thompson, M.: An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling,
in:
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Washington, D.C., American Geophysical Union,
https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119028116.ch13, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2017. a
Ruffault, J. and Mouillot, F.: How a new fire-suppression policy can
abruptly
reshape the fire-weather relationship, Ecosphere, 6, 1–19,
https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00182.1, 2015. a
Ruffault, J. and Mouillot, F.: Contribution of human and biophysical factors
to the spatial distribution of forest fire ignitions and large wildfires in a
French Mediterranean region, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 26,
498–508, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16181, 2017. a
Ruffault, J., Moron, V., Trigo, R. M., and Curt, T.: Objective
identification
of multiple large fire climatologies: an application to a Mediterranean
ecosystem, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 075006,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075006, 2016. a
Ruffault, J., Moron, V., Trigo, R. M., and Curt, T.: Daily synoptic
conditions
associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean France: evidence for a
wind-driven fire regime, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 524–533,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4680, 2017. a, b
Ruffault, J., Curt, T., Martin-StPaul, N. K., Moron, V., and Trigo, R. M.:
Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the
northern Mediterranean, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 847–856,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, 2018. a, b
Sharples, J. J., McRae, R. H., Weber, R. O., and Gill, A. M.: A simple index
for assessing fire danger rating, Environ. Modell. Softw., 24,
764–774, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.004, 2009. a
Stavros, E. N., Abatzoglou, J., Larkin, N. K., Mckenzie, D., and Steel,
E. A.:
Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA,
Int. J. Wildland Fire, 23, 899–914, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF13169,
2014a. a, b
Stavros, E. N., Abatzoglou, J. T., McKenzie, D., and Larkin, N. K.: Regional
projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing
climate in the contiguous Western United States, Climatic Change, 126,
455–468, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6, 2014b. a
Tedim, F., Leone, V., Amraoui, M., Bouillon, C., Coughlan, M. R., Delogu, G.
M., Fernandes, P. M., Ferreira, C., McCaffrey, S., McGee, T. K., Parente, J.,
Paton, D., Pereira, M. G., Ribeiro, L. M., Viegas, D. X., and Xanthopoulos,
G.:
Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts,
Fire,
1, 9,
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1010009, 2018. a
Turco, M., von Hardenberg, J., AghaKouchak, A., Llasat, M. C., Provenzale,
A.,
and Trigo, R. M.: On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer
fires in Mediterranean Europe, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 81,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00116-9, 2017. a
Turco, M., Jerez, S., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., AghaKouchak, A., Llasat, M. C.,
and
Provenzale, A.: Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal
climate predictions, Nat. Commun., 9, 2718,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0, 2018. a
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Jacob, D., Belda, M., Colette, A.,
Déqué,
M., Fernández, J., García-Díez, M., Goergen, K.,
Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Karacostas, T., Katragkou, E., Keuler, K.,
Kotlarski, S., Mayer, S., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G.,
Patarčić, M., Scinocca, J., Sobolowski, S., Suklitsch, M.,
Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Yiou, P.: The simulation
of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the
EURO-CORDEX project, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2555–2575,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z, 2013. a
Vennetier, M. and Ripert, C.: Forest flora turnover with climate change in
the
Mediterranean region: A case study in Southeastern France, Forest Ecol.
Manag., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.015, 2009. a
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Habets, F., Soubeyroux,
J.-M., Blanchard, M., and Baillon, M.: Multilevel and multiscale drought
reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 459–478,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-459-2010,
2010a. a
Vidal, J. P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Baillon, M., and
Soubeyroux,
J. M.: A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the
Safran system, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1627–1644,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2003, 2010b. a
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Kitova, N., Najac, J., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.:
Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections
and effect of adaptation scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2935–2955,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2935-2012, 2012. a
Short summary
We developed statistical models simulating the probability of large wildfires in France from the climate forcing. The models were able to reproduce both spatial and temporal variability in large wildfires across different environmental regions. The models have wide applications, including improving our understanding of the drivers of large wildfires over the historical period and providing a basis on which to estimate future changes to large wildfires from climate projections.
We developed statistical models simulating the probability of large wildfires in France from the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint