Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-647-2025
Research article
 | 
11 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 11 Feb 2025

Identifying unrecognised risks to life from debris flows

Mark Bloomberg, Tim Davies, Elena Moltchanova, Tom Robinson, and David Palmer

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Cited articles

Beca Ltd: Natural hazards affecting Gorge Road, Queenstown, Prepared for Queenstown Lakes District Council, Beca Ltd, Christchurch, New Zealand, https://www.qldc.govt.nz/media/vsnfk4vk/3c-attachment-c-beca-limited-risk-assessment-natural-hazards-affecting-gorge-road-queenstown-november-2020-c.pdf (last access: 31 January 2025), 2020. 
Bell, R. and Glade, T.: Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-117-2004, 2004. 
Bertrand, M., Liébault, F., and Piégay, H.: Regional Scale Mapping of Debris-Flow Susceptibility in the Southern French Alps, Journal of Alpine Research | Revue de géographie alpine, 105-4, https://doi.org/10.4000/rga.3543, 2017. 
Bloomberg, M. and Palmer, D. J.: Estimation of catchment susceptibility to debris flows and debris floods–Marlborough Sounds, Pelorus Catchment and Wairau Northbank. Draft Report to Marlborough District Council, https://www.marlborough.govt.nz/repository/libraries/id:2ifzri1o01cxbymxkvwz/hierarchy/documents/your-council/meetings/2022/environment-2022/Item_5-17032022-Estimation_of_catchment_susceptibility_to_debris_flows.pdf (last access: 31 January 2025), 2022. 
Cavalli, M., Crema, S., Trevisani, S., and Marchi, L.: GIS tools for preliminary debris-flow assessment at regional scale, J. Mt. Sci., 14, 2498–2510, 2017. 
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Short summary
Debris flows occur infrequently, with average recurrence intervals (ARIs) ranging from decades to millennia. Consequently, they pose an underappreciated hazard. We describe how to make a preliminary identification of debris-flow-susceptible catchments, estimate threshold ARIs for debris flows that pose an unacceptable risk to life, and identify the “window of non-recognition” where debris flows are infrequent enough that their hazard is unrecognised yet frequent enough to pose a risk to life.
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