Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023
Research article
 | 
24 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2023

Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model

Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo

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Cited articles

All, J., Medler, M., Arques, S., Cole, R., Woodall, T., King, J., Yan, J., and Schmitt, C.: Fire response to local climate variability: Huascarán National Park, Peru, Fire Ecol., 13, 85–104, 2017. a
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Paugam, R., Chen, Y., Hantson, S., van der Werf, G. R., and Randerson, J. T.: The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Anderson, D. and Burnham, K.: Model selection and multi-model inference, Second, NY: Springer-Verlag, 63, 10, ISBN 0-387-95364-7, 2004. a
Anderson, K. R., Englefield, P., Little, J., and Reuter, G.: An approach to operational forest fire growth predictions for Canada, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 893–905, 2009. a
Arino, O., Gross, D., Ranera, F., Leroy, M., Bicheron, P., Brockman, C., Defourny, P., Vancutsem, C., Achard, F., Durieux, L., et al.: GlobCover: ESA service for global land cover from MERIS, in: 2007 IEEE international geoscience and remote sensing symposium, 2412–2415, IEEE, https://doi.org/10.1109/igarss.2007.4423328, 2007. a
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Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
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