Articles | Volume 23, issue 7
Research article
24 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 24 Jul 2023

Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model

Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo

Related authors

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability
Yufei Zou, Yuhang Wang, Yun Qian, Hanqin Tian, Jia Yang, and Ernesto Alvarado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 995–1020,,, 2020
Short summary
Biomass burning fuel consumption rates: a field measurement database
T. T. van Leeuwen, G. R. van der Werf, A. A. Hoffmann, R. G. Detmers, G. Rücker, N. H. F. French, S. Archibald, J. A. Carvalho Jr., G. D. Cook, W. J. de Groot, C. Hély, E. S. Kasischke, S. Kloster, J. L. McCarty, M. L. Pettinari, P. Savadogo, E. C. Alvarado, L. Boschetti, S. Manuri, C. P. Meyer, F. Siegert, L. A. Trollope, and W. S. W. Trollope
Biogeosciences, 11, 7305–7329,,, 2014

Related subject area

Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465,,, 2023
Short summary
Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – Local validation and optimization in Western Canada
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster: How models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosovic, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Early warning system for ice collapses and river blockages in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029,,, 2023
Short summary
Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

All, J., Medler, M., Arques, S., Cole, R., Woodall, T., King, J., Yan, J., and Schmitt, C.: Fire response to local climate variability: Huascarán National Park, Peru, Fire Ecol., 13, 85–104, 2017. a
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Paugam, R., Chen, Y., Hantson, S., van der Werf, G. R., and Randerson, J. T.: The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 529–552,, 2019. a, b, c, d, e, f
Anderson, D. and Burnham, K.: Model selection and multi-model inference, Second, NY: Springer-Verlag, 63, 10, ISBN 0-387-95364-7, 2004. a
Anderson, K. R., Englefield, P., Little, J., and Reuter, G.: An approach to operational forest fire growth predictions for Canada, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 893–905, 2009. a
Arino, O., Gross, D., Ranera, F., Leroy, M., Bicheron, P., Brockman, C., Defourny, P., Vancutsem, C., Achard, F., Durieux, L., et al.: GlobCover: ESA service for global land cover from MERIS, in: 2007 IEEE international geoscience and remote sensing symposium, 2412–2415, IEEE,, 2007. a
Short summary
We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Final-revised paper