Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey
Thomas Chartier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
École Normale Supérieure, PSL University, CNRS, UMR 8538 – Laboratoire de Géologie, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques pour la Sûreté des Installations, IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92262, France
now at: GEM Hazard Team, GEM Foundation, via Ferrata, 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Oona Scotti
Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques pour la Sûreté des Installations, IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92262, France
Hélène Lyon-Caen
École Normale Supérieure, PSL University, CNRS, UMR 8538 – Laboratoire de Géologie, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005 Paris, France
Keith Richard-Dinger
Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA
James H. Dieterich
Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA
Bruce E. Shaw
Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10025, USA
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Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7339–7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
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Short summary
In order to evaluate the seismic risk, we first model the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes on the faults near Istanbul. By using a novel modelling approach, we consider the fault system as a whole rather than each fault individually. We explore the hypotheses that are discussed in the scientific community concerning this fault system and compare the modelled results with local recorded data and a physics-based model, gaining new insights in particular on the largest possible earthquake.
In order to evaluate the seismic risk, we first model the annual rate of occurrence of...
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