Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2733–2751, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2733–2751, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021

Research article 30 Aug 2021

Research article | 30 Aug 2021

Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey

Thomas Chartier et al.

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Cited articles

Ambraseys, N.: The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last 2000 years, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000843​​​​​​​, 2002. a
Aochi, H. and Ulrich, T.: A probable earthquake scenario near Istanbul determined from dynamic simulations, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 105, 1468–1475, 2015. a
Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Hubert, A., and Barka, A.: Westward propagation of the North Anatolian fault into the northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics, Geology, 27, 267–270, 1999. a
Bohnhoff, M., Martínez-Garzón, P., Bulut, F., Stierle, E., and Ben-Zion, Y.: Maximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone, Tectonophysics, 674, 147–165, 2016. a
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In order to evaluate the seismic risk, we first model the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes on the faults near Istanbul. By using a novel modelling approach, we consider the fault system as a whole rather than each fault individually. We explore the hypotheses that are discussed in the scientific community concerning this fault system and compare the modelled results with local recorded data and a physics-based model, gaining new insights in particular on the largest possible earthquake.
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