Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Research article
 | 
30 Aug 2021
Research article |  | 30 Aug 2021

Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara Region, Turkey

Thomas Chartier, Oona Scotti, Hélène Lyon-Caen, Keith Richard-Dinger, James H. Dieterich, and Bruce E. Shaw

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Short summary
In order to evaluate the seismic risk, we first model the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes on the faults near Istanbul. By using a novel modelling approach, we consider the fault system as a whole rather than each fault individually. We explore the hypotheses that are discussed in the scientific community concerning this fault system and compare the modelled results with local recorded data and a physics-based model, gaining new insights in particular on the largest possible earthquake.
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