Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-581-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-581-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
19 Apr 2017
Review article |
| 19 Apr 2017
The street as an area of human exposure in an earthquake aftermath: the case of Lorca, Spain, 2011
Marc Bertran Rojo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
PACTE-Université de Grenoble-Alpes, PACTE UMR 5194 (CNRS, IEPG, UJF,
UPMF), Grenoble, 38041, France
Elise Beck
PACTE-Université de Grenoble-Alpes, PACTE UMR 5194 (CNRS, IEPG, UJF,
UPMF), Grenoble, 38041, France
Céline Lutoff
PACTE-Université de Grenoble-Alpes, PACTE UMR 5194 (CNRS, IEPG, UJF,
UPMF), Grenoble, 38041, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Saif Shabou, Isabelle Ruin, Céline Lutoff, Samuel Debionne, Sandrine Anquetin, Jean-Dominique Creutin, and Xavier Beaufils
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1631–1651, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1631-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1631-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes the development of a model, called MobRISK, for assessing motorists' exposure to road flooding. MobRISK combines sociodemographic, travel-activity and hydrometeorological data in order to simulate the number and the profile of exposed persons to road flooding. The first application of MobRISK in a case study in southern France enabled the identification of the most dangerous road sections based on a spatiotemporal exposure index and the profile of most exposed people.
Related subject area
Earthquake Hazards
Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Modelling seismic ground motion and its uncertainty in different tectonic contexts: challenges and application to the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)
Scoring and ranking probabilistic seismic hazard models: an application based on macroseismic intensity data
A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy)
Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye
Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data
The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas
Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China
Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model
Co- and postseismic subaquatic evidence for prehistoric fault activity near Coyhaique, Aysén Region, Chile
Towards a dynamic earthquake risk framework for Switzerland
Understanding flow characteristics from tsunami deposits at Odaka, Joban Coast, using a deep neural network (DNN) inverse model
Spring water anomalies before two consecutive earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) in Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) on 6 February 2023
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Forearc crustal faulting and estimated worst-case tsunami scenario in the upper plate of subduction zones. Case study of the Morne Piton Fault system (Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe Archipelago)
Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of Local Crustal Seismic Response
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and Results
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Sweden
The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps
Strategies for Comparison of Modern Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models and Insights from the Germany and France Border Region
Seismic background noise levels in the Italian strong-motion network
Testing machine learning models for heuristic building damage assessment applied to the Italian Database of Observed Damage (DaDO)
The seismic hazard from the Lembang Fault, Indonesia, derived from InSAR and GNSS data
The European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20): geologic input data for the European Seismic Hazard Model 2020
Rapid estimation of seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program (LOWESS)
A 2700-yr record of Cascadia megathrust and crustal/slab earthquakes from Upper and Lower Squaw Lakes, Oregon
Towards improving the spatial testability of aftershock forecast models
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Accounting for path and site effects in spatial ground-motion correlation models using Bayesian inference
Seismogenic potential and tsunami threat of the strike-slip Carboneras fault in the western Mediterranean from physics-based earthquake simulations
Earthquake hazard characterization by using entropy: application to northern Chilean earthquakes
Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
Looking for undocumented earthquake effects: a probabilistic analysis of Italian macroseismic data
Spatiotemporal seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
A web-based GIS (web-GIS) database of the scientific articles on earthquake-triggered landslides
Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach
Earthquake vulnerability assessment of the built environment in the city of Srinagar, Kashmir Himalaya, using a geographic information system
Earthquake-induced landslides in Norway
PERL: a dataset of geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological parameters for earthquake-induced hazards assessment in Terre del Reno (Emilia-Romagna, Italy)
Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand
A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Inferring the depth and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes from intensity attenuation curves
Tsunami scenario triggered by a submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment
Scrutinizing and rooting the multiple anomalies of Nepal earthquake sequence in 2015 with the deviation–time–space criterion and homologous lithosphere–coversphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling physics
On the calculation of smoothing kernels for seismic parameter spatial mapping: methodology and examples
Mass flows, turbidity currents and other hydrodynamic consequences of small and moderate earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara
Brief communication: The crucial assessment of possible significant vertical movements preceding the 28 December 1908, Mw = 7.1, Messina Straits earthquake
Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Mauricio Monsalve, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Elisa Ferrario, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos de la Llera, and Daniel Straub
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic risk management uses reference earthquake scenarios, but the criteria for selecting them do not always consider consequences for exposed assets. Hence, we adopt a definition of representative scenarios associated with a return period and loss level to select such scenarios among a large set of possible earthquakes. We identify the scenarios for the residential-building stock and power supply in Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile. The selected scenarios depend on the exposed assets.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Graeme Weatherill, Sreeram Reddy Kotha, Laurentiu Danciu, Susana Vilanova, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1795–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1795-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground motion models (GMMs) selected for the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) and their uncertainties require adaptation to different tectonic environments. Using insights from new data, local experts and developments in the scientific literature, we further calibrate the ESHM20 GMM logic tree to capture previously unmodelled regional variation. We also propose a new scaled-backbone logic tree for application to Europe's subduction zones and the Vrancea deep seismic source.
Vera D'Amico, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Warner Marzocchi, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1401–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a scoring strategy to rank multiple models/branches of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model that could be useful to consider specific requests from stakeholders responsible for seismic risk reduction actions. In fact, applications of PSHA often require sampling a few hazard curves from the model. The procedure is introduced through an application aimed to score and rank the branches of a recent Italian PSHA model according to their fit with macroseismic intensity data.
Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, and Giancarlo De Marchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1249–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1249-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper concerns the use of a dense network of low-cost seismic accelerometers in populated areas to achieve rapid and reliable estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (northeast Italy). These additional data, in conjunction with the automatic monitoring procedure, allow us to obtain dense measurements which only rely on actual recorded data, avoiding the use of ground motion prediction equations. This leads to a more reliable picture of the actual ground shaking.
Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, and Graeme Weatherill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1223–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1223-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake ground shaking can be strongly affected by local geology and is often amplified by soft sediments. In this study, we introduce a global geomorphological model for sediment thickness as a protentional parameter for predicting this site amplification. The results show that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification predictions adds important value and that global or regional models for sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology are worth considering.
Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1135–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1135-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ground movement and rupture produced by the 2020 Masbate earthquake in the Philippines were studied using satellite data. We highlight the importance of the complementary use of optical and radar datasets. The slip measurements and field observations helped improve our understanding of the seismotectonics of the region, which is critical for seismic hazard studies.
Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, and Jinmeng Bi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1017–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, and Wenfei Mao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 773–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric electric field (AEF) is the bridge connecting the surface charges and atmospheric particle changes before an earthquake, which is essential for the study of the coupling process between the coversphere and atmosphere caused by earthquakes. This study discovers AEF anomalies before the Luding earthquake in 2022 and clarifies the relationship between the surface changes and atmosphere changes possibly caused by the earthquake.
Polona Zupančič, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Michele M. C. Carafa, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Mladen Živčić, Vanja Kastelic, Gregor Rajh, Martina Čarman, Jure Atanackov, and Andrej Gosar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 651–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-651-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We considered two parameters that affect seismic hazard assessment in Slovenia. The first parameter we determined is the thickness of the lithosphere's section where earthquakes are generated. The second parameter is the activity of each fault, which is expressed by its average displacement per year (slip rate). Since the slip rate can be either seismic or aseismic, we estimated both components. This analysis was based on geological and seismological data and was validated through comparisons.
Morgan Vervoort, Katleen Wils, Kris Vanneste, Roberto Urrutia, Mario Pino, Catherine Kissel, Marc De Batist, and Maarten Van Daele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-8, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study identified a prehistoric earthquake around 4400 years ago near the city of Coyhaique (Aysén Region, Chilean Patagonia) and illustrates the potential seismic hazard in the region. We found deposits in lakes and a fjord that can be related to subaquatic and onshore landslides, all with a similar age, indicating that they were most likely caused by an earthquake. Through modelling we found that this was a magnitude 5.6 to 6.8 earthquake on a fault near the city of Coyhaique.
Maren Böse, Laurentiu Danciu, Athanasios Papadopoulos, John Clinton, Carlo Cauzzi, Irina Dallo, Leila Mizrahi, Tobias Diehl, Paolo Bergamo, Yves Reuland, Andreas Fichtner, Philippe Roth, Florian Haslinger, Frédérick Massin, Nadja Valenzuela, Nikola Blagojević, Lukas Bodenmann, Eleni Chatzi, Donat Fäh, Franziska Glueer, Marta Han, Lukas Heiniger, Paulina Janusz, Dario Jozinović, Philipp Kästli, Federica Lanza, Timothy Lee, Panagiotis Martakis, Michèle Marti, Men-Andrin Meier, Banu Mena Cabrera, Maria Mesimeri, Anne Obermann, Pilar Sanchez-Pastor, Luca Scarabello, Nicolas Schmid, Anastasiia Shynkarenko, Bozidar Stojadinović, Domenico Giardini, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 583–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic hazard and risk are time dependent as seismicity is clustered and exposure can change rapidly. We are developing an interdisciplinary dynamic earthquake risk framework for advancing earthquake risk mitigation in Switzerland. This includes various earthquake risk products and services, such as operational earthquake forecasting and early warning. Standardisation and harmonisation into seamless solutions that access the same databases, workflows, and software are a crucial component.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimates the behavior of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from its deposit distributed in the Joban coastal area. In this study, the flow characteristics of the tsunami were reconstructed using the DNN (deep neural network) inverse model, suggesting that the tsunami inundation occurred in the very high-velocity condition.
Sedat İnan, Hasan Çetin, and Nurettin Yakupoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 397–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-397-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two devastating earthquakes, Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6, occurred in Türkiye on 6 February 2023. We obtained commercially bottled waters from two springs, 100 km from the epicenter of Mw 7.7. Samples of the first spring emanating from fault zone in hard rocks showed positive anomalies in major ions lasting for 6 months before the earthquake. Samples from the second spring accumulated in an alluvium deposit showed no anomalies. We show that pre-earthquake anomalies are geologically site-dependent.
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north–south-trending faults, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures on the Alsace plain. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the graben by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. There is a 99 % probability that a maximum-magnitude earthquake would be below 7.3 if assuming a purely dip-slip mechanism or below 7.6 if assuming a strike-slip one.
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-222, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Using novel geophysical datasets we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton Fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm.yr-1, dividing by five previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative for the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if the whole Fault segments would ruptured together.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.
Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169504548.82107207/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169504548.82107207/v1, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Rapidly growing cities in earthquake-prone Global South regions lack seismic event records, hindering accurate ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Our study shows that even with these limitations, it is possible to generate reasonable predictions of the spatial variability in expected ground motions using high-resolution local geological information and simulation-based methods. We emphasize that substantial investments in the measurement of subsurface properties can prove valuable.
Laurentiu Danciu, Domenico Giardini, Graeme Weatherill, Roberto Basili, Shyam Nandan, Andrea Rovida, Céline Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Marco Pagani, Celso Guillermo Reyes, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Vilanova, Fabrice Cotton, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3062, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative reference in the next update of the European Seismic Design Codes (CEN EC8) and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe (Crowley et al., 2021).
Niranjan Joshi, Björn Lund, and Roland Roberts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-213, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Few large earthquakes and low occurrence rates makes seismic hazard assessment of Sweden a challenging task. Since 2000, expansion of the seismic network has improved the quality and quantity of the data recorded. We use this new data to estimate the Swedish seismic hazard using probabilistic methods. We find that hazard was previously underestimated in the north, which we find to have the highest hazard in Sweden with mean peak ground acceleration of up to 0.05 g for a 475 year return period.
Franz Livio, Maria Francesca Ferrario, Elisa Martinelli, Sahra Talamo, Silvia Cercatillo, and Alessandro Maria Michetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3407-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here we document the occurrence of an historical earthquake that occurred in the European western Southern Alps in the sixth century CE. Analysis of the effects due to earthquake shaking in the city of Como (N Italy) and a comparison with dated offshore landslides in the Alpine lakes allowed us to make an inference about the possible magnitude and the location of the seismic source for this event.
Graeme Weatherill, Fabrice Cotton, Guillaume Daniel, Irmela Zentner, Pablo Iturrieta, and Christian Bosse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-98, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
New generations of seismic hazard models are developed with sophisticated approaches to quantify uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake process. To understand why and how recent state-of-the-art seismic hazard models for France, Germany and Europe differ despite similar underlying assumptions, we present a systematic approach to investigate model-to-model differences and to quantify and visualise them while accounting for their respective uncertainties.
Simone Francesco Fornasari, Deniz Ertuncay, and Giovanni Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3219-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the background seismic noise for the Italian strong motion network by developing the Italian accelerometric low- and high-noise models. Spatial and temporal variations of the noise levels have been analysed. Several stations located near urban areas are affected by human activities, with high noise levels in the low periods. Our results provide an overview of the background noise of the strong motion network and can be used as a station selection criterion for future research.
Subash Ghimire, Philippe Guéguen, Adrien Pothon, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3199-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the efficacy of several machine learning models for damage characterization, trained and tested on the Database of Observed Damage (DaDO) for Italian earthquakes. Reasonable damage prediction effectiveness (68 % accuracy) is observed, particularly when considering basic structural features and grouping the damage according to the traffic-light-based system used during the post-disaster period (green, yellow, and red), showing higher relevancy for rapid damage prediction.
Ekbal Hussain, Endra Gunawan, Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, and Qori'atu Zahro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3185–3197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake potential of the Lembang Fault, located near the city of Bandung in West Java, Indonesia, is poorly understood. Bandung has a population of over 8 million people. We used satellite data to estimate the energy storage on the fault and calculate the likely size of potential future earthquakes. We use simulations to show that 1.9–2.7 million people would be exposed to high levels of ground shaking in the event of a major earthquake on the fault.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stephane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-118, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1,248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Huaiqun Zhao, Wenkai Chen, Can Zhang, and Dengjie Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3031–3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Early emergency response requires improving the utilization value of the data available in the early post-earthquake period. We proposed a method for assessing seismic intensities by analyzing early aftershock sequences using the robust locally weighted regression program. The seismic intensity map evaluated by the method can reflect the range of the hardest-hit areas and the spatial distribution of the possible property damage and casualties caused by the earthquake.
Ann Elizabeth Morey and Chris Goldfinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2277419/v2, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the characteristics from a deposit attributed to the 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake to identify other subduction earthquake deposits in sediments from two lakes located near the California/Oregon border. Seven deposits were identified in these records and an age-depth model suggests that these correlate in time to the largest Cascadia earthquakes preserved in the offshore record suggesting that inland lakes can be good recorders of Cascadia earthquakes.
Asim M. Khawaja, Behnam Maleki Asayesh, Sebastian Hainzl, and Danijel Schorlemmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2683–2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Testing of earthquake forecasts is important for model verification. Forecasts are usually spatially discretized with many equal-sized grid cells, but often few earthquakes are available for evaluation, leading to meaningless tests. Here, we propose solutions to improve the testability of earthquake forecasts and give a minimum ratio between the number of earthquakes and spatial cells for significant tests. We show applications of the proposed technique for synthetic and real case studies.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1504, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population.
Lukas Bodenmann, Jack W. Baker, and Božidar Stojadinović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2387–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2387-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding spatial patterns in earthquake-induced ground motions is key for assessing the seismic risk of distributed infrastructure systems. To study such patterns, we propose a novel model that accounts for spatial proximity, as well as site and path effects, and estimate its parameters from past earthquake data by explicitly quantifying the inherent uncertainties.
José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Paula Herrero-Barbero, and José J. Martínez-Díaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2031–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The strike-slip Carboneras fault is one of the largest sources in the Alboran Sea, with it being one of the faster faults in the eastern Betics. The dimensions and location of the Carboneras fault imply a high seismic and tsunami threat. In this work, we present tsunami simulations from sources generated with physics-based earthquake simulators. We show that the Carboneras fault has the capacity to generate locally damaging tsunamis with inter-event times between 2000 and 6000 years.
Antonio Posadas, Denisse Pasten, Eugenio E. Vogel, and Gonzalo Saravia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1911–1920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we understand an earthquake from a thermodynamics point of view as an irreversible transition; then it must suppose an increase in entropy. We use > 100 000 earthquakes in northern Chile to test the theory that Shannon entropy, H, is an indicator of the equilibrium state. Using variation in H, we were able to detect major earthquakes and their foreshocks and aftershocks, including the 2007 Mw 7.8 Tocopilla earthquake and 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake.
Dirsa Feliciano, Orlando Arroyo, Tamara Cabrera, Diana Contreras, Jairo Andrés Valcárcel Torres, and Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1863–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents the number of damaged buildings and estimates the economic losses from a set of earthquakes in Sabana Centro, a region of 11 towns in Colombia.
Andrea Antonucci, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, and Dario Albarello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1805–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The earthquake effects undocumented at 228 Italian localities were calculated through a probabilistic approach starting from the values obtained through the use of an intensity prediction equation, taking into account the intensity data documented at close localities for a given earthquake. The results showed some geographical dependencies and correlations with the intensity levels investigated.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1835–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporal seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when a seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around the southern Central Range or an accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
Luca Schilirò, Mauro Rossi, Federica Polpetta, Federica Fiorucci, Carolina Fortunato, and Paola Reichenbach
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1789–1804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a database of the main scientific articles published on earthquake-triggered landslides in the last 4 decades. To enhance data viewing, the articles were catalogued into a web-based GIS, which was specifically designed to show different types of information, such as bibliometric information, the relevant topic and sub-topic category (or categories), and earthquake(s) addressed. Such information can be useful to obtain a general overview of the topic, especially for a broad readership.
Simone Barani, Gabriele Ferretti, and Davide Scafidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1685–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2012, Italy was struck by a seismic crisis characterized by two main shocks and relevant liquefaction events. Terre del Reno is one of the municipalities that experienced the most extensive liquefaction effects; thus it was chosen as case study for a project devoted to defining a new methodology to assess the liquefaction susceptibility. In this framework, about 1800 geotechnical, geophysical, and hydrogeological investigations were collected and stored in the publicly available PERL dataset.
Samuel Roeslin, Quincy Ma, Pavan Chigullapally, Joerg Wicker, and Liam Wotherspoon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1207–1226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1207-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Cited articles
Alexander, D.: Behavior during Earthquakes: A Southern Italian Example, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 8, 5–29, 1990.
Alexander, D. E.: Mortality and Morbidity Risk in the L'Aquila, Italy Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Lessons to Be Learned, in: Human Casualties in Earthquakes, edited by: Spence, R., So, E., and Scawthorn, C., 29, 185–197, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Springer, Netherlands, 2011.
Alfaro, P., González, M., Brusi, D., López Martín, J. A., Martínez-Díaz, J. J., García Mayordomo, J., Benito, B., and Jódar, F: Lecciones Aprendidas Del Terremoto de Lorca de 2011, Enseñanza de Las Ciencias de La Tierra, 19, 245–260, 2011.
André-Poyaud, I., Bahoken, F., Chardonnel, S., Charleux, L. L., Depeau, S., Dureau, F., Giroud, M., Imbert, C., Quesseveur, E., and Tabaka, K. K.: Représentations Graphiques et Indicateurs Des Mobilités et Des Dynamiques de Peuplement?: Contribution Bibliographique, October, available at: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00470407 (last access: 12 April 2013), 2009.
Aribert, J.-M.: Notions spécifiques pour un code de dimensionnement parasismique des constructions mixtes acier-béton, Construction métallique, 39, 5–17, 2002.
Armenian, H. K., Melkonian, A., Noji, E. K., and Hovanesian, A. P.: Deaths and Injuries due to the Earthquake in Armenia: A Cohort Approach, Int. J. Epidemiol., 26, 806–813, 1997.
Bechtoula, H. and Ousalem, H.: The 21 May 2003 Zemmouri (Algeria) Earthquake: Damages and Disaster Responses, J. Adv. Concr. Technol., 3, 161–174, https://doi.org/10.3151/jact.3.161, 2005.
Bernardini, G., D'Orazio, M., and Quagliarini, E.: Towards a “behavioural design” approach for seismic risk reduction strategies of buildings and their environment, Safety Sci., 86, 273–294, 2016a.
Bernardini, G., Quagliarini, E., and D'Orazio, M.: Towards creating a combined database for earthquake pedestrians' evacuation models, Safety Sci., 82, 77–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2015.09.001, 2016b.
Bolton, P. A.: The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Public Response, US Government Printing Office, 1993.
Calianno, M., Ruin, I., and Gourley, J. J.: Supplementing Flash Flood Reports with Impact Classifications, J. Hydrol., 477, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.036, 2013.
Camelbeek, T., Barszez, A. M., and Plumier, A.: Le Risque Sismique et Sa Prévention En Région Wallonne, available at: http://orbi.ulg.ac.be/handle/2268/18333 (last access: 10 June 2014), 2006.
Celep, Z., Erken, A., Taskin, B., and Ilki, A.: Failures of Masonry and Concrete Buildings during the March 8, 2010 Kovancılar and Palu (Elazığ) Earthquakes in Turkey, Eng. Fail. Anal., 18, 868–889, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2010.11.001, 2011.
Chardonnel, S. and Stock, M.: Time-Geography, Echelles et Temporalités, available at: http://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/halshs-00085942/, 89–95, 2005.
Chou, Y.-J., Huang, N., Lee, C.-H., Tsai, S.-L., Chen, L.-S., and Chang, H.-J.: Who Is at Risk of Death in an Earthquake?, Am. J. Epidemiol., 160, 688–695, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwh270, 2004.
Coburn, A. W., Spence, R. J. S., and Pomonis, A.: Factors Determining Human Casualty Levels in Earthquakes: Mortality Prediction in Building Collapse, in: Proceedings of the Tenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, CRC Press, 10, 5989–5994, available at: http://books.google.fr/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=uHtDvBvWGREC&oi=fnd&pg=PA5989&dq=factors+determining+human+casualty&ots=KxZ3Dq2VfR&sig=t0-JDpnKHk-e3l_bOH8TPHaq4-c, 1992.
Créton-Cazanave, L. and Lutoff, C.: Stakeholders' issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts' uncertainties, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1469–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1469-2013, 2013.
Creutin, J. D., Borga, M., Lutoff, C., Scolobig, A., Ruin, I., and Créton-Cazanave, L.: Catchment Dynamics and Social Response during Flash Floods: The Potential of Radar Rainfall Monitoring for Warning Procedures, Meteorol. Appl. 16, 115–125, 2009.
Cutter, S. L., Mitchell, J. T., and Scott, M. S.: Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 90, 713–737, 2000.
Debionne, S., Ruin, I., Shabou, S., Lutoff, C., and Creutin, J.-D.: Assessment of commuters' daily exposure to flash flooding over the roads of the Gard region, France, J. Hydrol., 541, 636–648, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.064, 2016.
Dhakal, R. P.: Damage to non-structural components and contents in 2010 Darfield earthquake, Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 43, 404–411, 2010.
Díaz, J. J. J.: Lorca: el terremoto del 11 de mayo de 2011, Enseñanza de las Ciencias de la Tierra, 19, 362–364, 2012.
Diez, A. A. and Sanz Larrea, C.: Why Was It so Damaging?, in: 2011 International Conference on Multimedia Technology (ICMT), 6670–6679, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMT.2011.6002759, 2011.
Dogangün, A.: Performance of Reinforced Concrete Buildings during the May 1, 2003 Bingöl Earthquake in Turkey, Eng. Struct., 26, 841–856, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2004.02.005, 2004.
D'Orazio, M., Spalazzi, L., Quagliarini, E., and Bernardini, G.: Agent-Based Model for Earthquake Pedestrians, Evacuation in Urban Outdoor Scenarios: Behavioural Patterns Definition and Evacuation Paths Choice, Safety Sci., 62, 450–465, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2013.09.014, 2014.
Ellidokuz, H., Ucku, R., Aydin, U. Y., and Ellidokuz, E.: Risk Factors for Death and Injuries in Earthquake: Cross-Sectional Study from Afyon, Turkey, Croat. Med. J., 46, 613–618, 2005.
Ferreira, T. M., Vicentea, R., and Varum, H.: Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Masonry Facade Walls: Development, Application and Validation of a New Scoring Method, Struct. Eng. Mech., 50, 541–561, 2014.
Frechet, J.: Sismicité Du Sud-Est de La France et Une Nouvelle Méthode de Zonage Sismique, Université Scientifique et Médicale de Grenoble, available at: http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00635869 (last access: 20 July 2014), 1978.
Galindo-Zaldívar, J., Chalouan, A., Azzouz, O., Sanz de Galdeano, C., Anahnah, F., Ameza, L., Ruano, P., Pedrera, A., Ruiz-Constán, A., Marín-Lechado, C., Benmakhlouf, M., López-Garrido, A., Ahmamou, M., Saji, R., Roldán-García, F., Akil, M., and Chabli, A: Are the Seismological and Geological Observations of the Al Hoceima (Morocco, Rif) 2004 Earthquake (M = 6. 3) Contradictory?, Tectonophysics, 475, 59–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2008.11.018, 2009.
Goltz, J. D., Russell, L. A., and Bourque, L. B.: Initial Behavioral Response to a Rapid Onset Disaster: A Case Study of the October 1, 1987, Whittier Narrows Earthquake, International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 10, 43–69, 1992.
González López, S.: Secuencia Sísmica de Lorca: Análisis de Consecuencias Y Actuaciones de Emergencia Y Post-Emergencia, Alberca: Revista de La Asociación de Amigos Del Museo Arqueológico de Lorca, 10, 9–37, 2012.
Guardiola-Víllora, A. and Basset-Salom, L.: Escenarios de Riesgo Sísmico Del Distrito Del Eixample de La Ciudad de Valencia, Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos Para Cálculo Y Diseño En Ingeniería, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2014.01.002, 2015.
Leone, F.: Caractérisation des vulnérabilités aux catastrophes' naturelles: contribution à une évaluation géographique multirisque (mouvements de terrain, séismes, tsunamis, éruptions volcaniques, cyclones), Université Paul Valéry – Montpellier III, available at: http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00276636 (last access: 4 June 2014), 2007.
Martin, C. H., Combes, P. H., Secanell, R., Lignon, G., Carbon, D., Fioravanti, A., and Grellet, B.: Révision Du Zonage Sismique de La France. Etude Probabiliste, Rapport GEOTER GTR/MATE/0701, 21, 81–90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2014.01.002, 2002.
Martínez, J. D. H.: Efectos Del Terremoto de Lorca Del 11 de Mayo de 2011 Sobre El Patrimonio Religioso. Análisis de Emergencia Ys Enseñanzas Futuras, BOLETÍN GEOLÓGICO Y MINERO, 123, 515–536, 2012.
Martínez Moreno, F., Salazar Ortuño, A., Martínez Díaz, J., López Martín, J. A., Terrer Miras, R., and Hernández Sapena, A.: EsLorca: Una Iniciativa Para La Educación Y Concienciación Sobre El Riesgo Sísmico, BOLETÍN GEOLÓGICO Y MINERO, 123, 575–588, 2012.
Milani, G.: Lesson Learned after the Emilia-Romagna, Italy, 20–29 May 2012 Earthquakes: A Limit Analysis Insight on Three Masonry Churches, Eng. Fail. Anal., 34, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2013.01.001, 2013.
Mishima, N., Miyamoto, N., Taguchi, Y., and Kitagawa, K.: Analysis of Current Two-Way Evacuation Routes Based on Residents, Perceptions in a Historic Preservation Area, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 8, 10–19, 2014.
Moreno González, R. and Bairán García, J. M.: Evaluación Sísmica de Los Edificios de Mampostería Típicos de Barcelona Aplicando La Metodología Risk-UE, Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos Para Cálculo Y Diseño En Ingeniería, 28, 161–169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2012.03.007, 2012.
Oterino, B. B., Medina, A. R., Escribano, J. M. G., and Murphy, P.: El terremoto de Lorca (2011) en el contexto de la peligrosidad y el riesgo sísmico en Murcia, Física de la Tierra, 24, 255–287, https://doi.org/10.5209/rev_FITE.2012.v24.40141, 2012.
Páez, D., Arroyo, E., and Fernández, I.: Catástrofes, Situaciones de Riesgo Y Factores Psicosociales, Mapfre Y Seguridad, 57, 43–45, 1995.
Prati, G., Catufi, V., and Pietrantoni, L.: Emotional and Behavioural Reactions to Tremors of the Umbria-Marche Earthquake, Disasters, 36, 439–451, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2011.01264.x, 2012.
Quarantelli, E. L.: Sheltering and Housing after Major Community Disasters: Case Studies and General Observations, 1982.
Quagliarini, E., Bernardini, G., Wazinski, C., Spalazzi, L., and D'Orazio, M.: Urban Scenarios Modifications due to the Earthquake: Ruins Formation Criteria and Interactions with Pedestrians Evacuation, B. Earthq. Eng., 14, 1071–1101, 2016.
Ramirez, M. and Peek-Asa, C.: Epidemiology of Traumatic Injuries from Earthquakes, Epidemiol. Rev., 27, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxi005, 2005.
Reghezza, M.: Réflexions Autour de La Vulnérabilité Métropolitaine: La Métropole Parisienne Face Au Risque de Crue Centennale, Thèse de doctorat en géographie de l'université Paris X, soutenue le 5 décembre, 2006.
Rodríguez, L. C., Herrero, E. C., Álvarez, A. I., Solares, J. M. M., Villar, R. C., Díaz, J. J. M., Benito, B., Escribano, J. G., Escribano, A. G., Mayordomo, J. G., López, R. P., Pascua, R. P., and Corella, P. M: Informe del sismo de Lorca del 11 de mayo de 2011, Informe Técnico, July, available at: http://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/62381 (last access: 19 April 2013), 2011.
Rojo, M. B.: Correr entre los escombros – Courir entre les débris La mobilité individuelle en période de crise sismique: facteur d'exposition humaine dans le cas du séisme de Lorca (Espagne 2011), Grenoble: Université Joseph-Fourier-Grenoble I. Correr entre los escombros – Courir entre les débris La mobilité individuelle en période de crise sismique: facteur d'exposition humaine dans le cas du séisme de Lorca (Espagne 2011), 2014.
Rojo, M. B., Beck, E., Lutoff, C., and Schoeneisch, P.: Exposition sociale face aux séismes?: la mobilité en question. Le cas de Lorca (Espagne) – Mai 2011, PLUM, Georrisque, 2013.
Ruin, I.: Conduite À Contre-Courant. Les Pratiques de Mobilité Dans Le Gard: Facteur de Vulnérabilité Aux Crues Rapides, 2007.
Ruin, I. and Lutoff, C.: Vulnérabilité Face Aux Crues Rapides et Mobilités Des Populations En Temps de Crise, La Houille Blanche, 6, 114–119, 2004.
Ruin, I., Creutin, J. D., Anquetin, S., and Lutoff, C.: Human Exposure to Flash Floods-Relation between Flood Parameters and Human Vulnerability during a Storm of September 2002 in Southern France, J. Hydrol., 361, 199–213, 2008.
Ruin, I., Lutoff, C., Boudevillain, B., Creutin, J. D., Anquetin, S., Rojo, M. B., Boissier, L., Borga, M., Colbeau-Justin, L., Creton-Cazanave, L., Delrieu, G., Douvinet, J., Gaume, E., Gruntfest, E., Naulin, J. P., Payrastre, O., and Vannier, O.: Social and Hydrological Responses to Extreme Precipitations: An Interdisciplinary Strategy for Post-Flood Investigation, Weather, Climate, and Society, September, 6, 135–153, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00009.1, 2013.
SISMORESISTENTS: COMISSIÓ PERMANENT DE NORMES, Norma de Construcción Sismorresistente: Parte General Y Edificación. NCSE-02, Edicions Multinormas, 2003.
Solares, J. M. M.: Sismicidad pre-instrumental. Los grandes terremotos históricos en España, Enseñanza de las Ciencias de la Tierra, 19, 296–304, 2012.
Tapan, M., Comert, M., Demir, C., Sayan, Y., Orakcal, K., and Ilki, A.: Failures of Structures during the October 23, 2011 Tabanlı(Van) and November 9, 2011 Edremit (Van) Earthquakes in Turkey, Eng. Fail. Anal., 34, 606–628, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2013.02.013, 2013.
Thévenin, T., Chardonnel, S., and Cochey, E.: Explorer Les Temporalités Urbaines de L'agglomération de Dijon. Une Analyse de l'Enquête-Ménage-Déplacement Par Les Programmes D'activités, Espace Populations Sociétés. Space Populations Societies, 2007/2–3, 179–190, 2007.
Thinus-Blanc, C. and Lecas, J. C.: Effects of Collicular Lesions in the Hamster during Visual Discrimination. An Analysis from Computer-Video Actograms, Q. J. Exp. Psychol. B, 37, 213–233, https://doi.org/10.1080/14640748508402097, 1985.
Tibaduiza, M. L. C., Zarzosa, N. L., Irizarry, J., Valcarcel, J. A., Barbat, A. H., and Suriñach, X. G.: Comportamiento Sísmico de los Edificios de Lorca, Física de la Tierra, 24, 289–314, https://doi.org/10.5209/rev_FITE.2012.v24.40142, 2012.
Vallée, M. and Di Luccio, F.: Source Analysis of the 2002 Molise, Southern Italy, Twin Earthquakes (10/31 and 11/01), Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12309, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022687, 2005.
Weiss, K., Girandola, F., and Colbeau-Justin, L.: Les Comportements de Protection Face Au Risque Naturel: De La Résistance À L'engagement, Pratiques Psychologiques, Psychologie sociale appliquee a l'environnement, 17, 251–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prps.2010.02.002, 2011.
Yang, X., Wu, Z., and Li, Y.: Difference between Real-Life Escape Panic and Mimic Exercises in Simulated Situation with Implications to the Statistical Physics Models of Emergency Evacuation: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 390, 2375–2380, 2011.
Short summary
The Lorca earthquake (Spain; 11 May 2011) killed 9 people, injured over 300 and caused huge damage. The vicinity of buildings in the street was the most unsafe area for people. This article proposes a method to study individual evacuation after a seism. Applied to Lorca, it shows the spatio-temporal variability of individual exposure in the street after the shake. The results of this study are helpful to preventive actions in places with moderate seismicity, stressing the danger of the street.
The Lorca earthquake (Spain; 11 May 2011) killed 9 people, injured over 300 and caused huge...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint