Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024
Research article
 | 
15 Aug 2024
Research article |  | 15 Aug 2024

A large-scale validation of snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting focusing on critical layers

Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair

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Cited articles

Bartelt, P., Lehning, M., Bartelt, P., Brown, B., Fierz, C., and Satyawali, P.: A physical SNOWPACK model for the Swiss avalanche warning: Part I: Numerical model, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 35, 123–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-232x(02)00074-5, 2002. a
Bellaire, S. and Jamieson, J. B.: Forecasting the formation of critical snow layers using a coupled snow cover and weather model, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 94, 37–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.06.007, 2013. a
Bellaire, S., van Herwijnen, A., Mitterer, C., and Schweizer, J.: On forecasting wet-snow avalanche activity using simulated snow cover data, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 144, 28–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.09.013, 2017. a
Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 38, 13–22, https://doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000009552, 1992. a
Calonne, N., Richter, B., Löwe, H., Cetti, C., Ter Schure, J., Van Herwijnen, A., Fierz, C., Jaggi, M., and Schneebeli, M.: The RHOSSA campaign: Multi-resolution monitoring of the seasonal evolution of the structure and mechanical stability of an alpine snowpack, The Cryosphere, 14, 1829–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1829-2020, 2020. a
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Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
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