Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 21 Feb 2023
| 21 Feb 2023
An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
Chen Chen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Engineering, Architecture and Technology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
Charles Koll
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
Haizhong Wang
School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
Michael K. Lindell
Department of Urban Design and Planning, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones
Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the Hengchun earthquake doublet on 26 December 2006
Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu subduction zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessment
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using an autoassociative neural network
Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast
Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China
A global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)
Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán Peninsula
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Simulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)
Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Wind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia
Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure
Historical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami event
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Reconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coast
Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy
Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai
Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks
The role of heat wave events in the occurrence and persistence of thermal stratification in the southern North Sea
Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust
Real-time coastal flood hazard assessment using DEM-based hydrogeomorphic classifiers
Rapid tsunami force prediction by mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling
Characteristics of two tsunamis generated by successive Mw 7.4 and Mw 8.1 earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands on 4 March 2021
Mesoscale simulation of typhoon-generated storm surge: methodology and Shanghai case study
Submarine landslide source modeling using the 3D slope stability analysis method for the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi, tsunami
Characteristics and beach safety knowledge of beachgoers on unpatrolled surf beaches in Australia
Robust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: towards low-cost satellite-based tsunami warning systems
A coupled modelling system to assess the effect of Mediterranean storms under climate change
Correlation of wind waves and sea level variations on the coast of the seasonally ice-covered Gulf of Finland
The role of morphodynamics in predicting coastal flooding from storms on a dissipative beach with sea level rise conditions
Multilayer modelling of waves generated by explosive subaqueous volcanism
Time-dependent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Western Sumatra, Indonesia, Using Space-Time Earthquake Rupture Modelling and Stochastic Source Scenarios
Statistical estimation of spatial wave extremes for tropical cyclones from small data samples: validation of the STM-E approach using long-term synthetic cyclone data for the Caribbean Sea
Development of damage curves for buildings near La Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic simulations
Investigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South Africa
Still normal? Near-real-time evaluation of storm surge events in the context of climate change
The influence of infragravity waves on the safety of coastal defences: a case study of the Dutch Wadden Sea
Assessment of potential beach erosion risk and impact of coastal zone development: a case study on Bongpo–Cheonjin Beach
Characteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy)
Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation
Towards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surges
Review article: Extreme marine events revealed by lagoonal sedimentary records in Ghar El Melh during the last 2500 years in the northeast of Tunisia
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
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Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
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On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
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Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
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In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
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This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
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Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
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Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
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Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
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The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
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Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
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Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
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We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
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Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-215, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the World Ocean in 2005–2021 and were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal/offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In correspondence to each freak wave event we put background wave and wind parameters extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyze their statistics and discuss the favorable conditions of freak wave occurrence.
Alexander Müller, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-223, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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External surges in the North Sea are caused by low pressure cells travelling over the Northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviour and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
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Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
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Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
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The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
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Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
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Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, 2022
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Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, 2022
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A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022, 2022
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Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1683-2022, 2022
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This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022, 2022
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The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1419-2022, 2022
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The high population settled in coastal regions and the potential damage imposed by coastal floods highlight the need for improving coastal flood hazard assessment techniques. This study introduces a topography-based approach for rapid estimation of flood hazard areas in the Savannah River delta. Our validation results demonstrate that, besides the high efficiency of the proposed approach, the estimated areas accurately overlap with reference flood maps.
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1267-2022, 2022
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This study presents a novel framework for rapid tsunami force predictions through the application of mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling with 2D–3D coupled numerical simulations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Yuchen Wang, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Kenji Satake, and Gui Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1073–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1073-2022, 2022
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Tsunami waveforms contain the features of its source, propagation path, and local topography. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamis were generated by earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, within 2 h. This rare case gives us a valuable opportunity to study the characteristics of two tsunamis. We analyzed the records of two tsunamis at tide gauges with spectral analysis tools. It is found that two tsunamis superpose during the few hours after the arrival of the second tsunami.
Shuyun Dong, Wayne J. Stephenson, Sarah Wakes, Zhongyuan Chen, and Jianzhong Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 931–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-931-2022, 2022
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Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfill the purpose of planning and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data while still providing reasonable accuracy. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world for examining the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-891-2022, 2022
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The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Lea Uebelhoer, William Koon, Mitchell D. Harley, Jasmin C. Lawes, and Robert W. Brander
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 909–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-909-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-909-2022, 2022
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Beachgoers at unpatrolled Australian beaches were surveyed to gain an understanding of their demographics, beach safety knowledge, and behaviour. Most visited unpatrolled beaches out of convenience and because they wanted to visit a quiet location. Despite being infrequent beachgoers, with poor swimming and hazard identification skills, most intended to enter the water. Authorities should go beyond the
swim between the flagssafety message, as people will always swim at unpatrolled beaches.
Ryuichi Kanai, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Alan Smith, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022, 2022
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The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 min of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, 2022
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In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, 2022
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We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Jairo E. Cueto, Luis J. Otero Díaz, Silvio R. Ospino-Ortiz, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 713–728, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-713-2022, 2022
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We investigate the importance of morphodynamics on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions on a microtidal beach. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies. The results indicate that numerical modeling of flooding should be approached by considering morphodynamics; ignoring them can underestimate flooding by ~ 15 %. Moreover, beach erosion and flooding are intensified by sea level rise and high tides in ~ 69 % and ~ 65 %, respectively.
Matthew W. Hayward, Colin N. Whittaker, Emily M. Lane, William L. Power, Stéphane Popinet, and James D. L. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 617–637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022, 2022
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Volcanic eruptions can produce tsunamis through multiple mechanisms. We present validation cases for a numerical method used in simulating waves caused by submarine explosions: a laboratory flume experiment and waves generated by explosions at field scale. We then demonstrate the use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models such dispersive sources more proficiently than standard tsunami models.
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, 2022
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 431–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-431-2022, 2022
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Characterizing extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilizes wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-345-2022, 2022
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Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 187–205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-187-2022, 2022
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In coastal regions, flooding can occur from combined tides, storms, river discharge, and waves. Effects of waves are commonly neglected when assessing flooding, although these may strongly contribute to extreme water levels. We find that waves combined with tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, increased flood extent and depth and caused earlier flooding than when waves were neglected. This highlights the need to consider all major flood drivers in future flood assessments.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, 2022
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Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1-2022, 2022
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Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated, since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Changbin Lim, Tae Kon Kim, Sahong Lee, Yoon Jeong Yeon, and Jung Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3827-2021, 2021
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This study aimed to quantitatively assess erosion risk. Methods for assessing each potential were proposed, and the corresponding erosion risk was calculated by introducing a combined potential erosion risk curve presenting the erosion consequence. In addition the method for verifying the risk was examined for the east coast of South Korea. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature and plays a key role in identifying methods that prevent erosion.
Gaia Mattei, Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Anfuso, Giorgio Budillon, and Pietro Aucelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3809–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021, 2021
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This study examines the characteristics of a destructive marine storm in the strongly inhabited coastal area of the Gulf of Naples, along the Italian coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is highly vulnerable to marine storms due to the accelerated relative sea level rise trend and the increased anthropogenic impact on the coastal area. Finally, a first assessment of the return period of this event was evaluated using local press reports on damage to urban furniture and port infrastructures.
Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, Peter Pazak, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3789-2021, 2021
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The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
Tom Howard and Simon David Paul Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3693–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3693-2021, 2021
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We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. Model simulations have the potential to reduce the uncertainty in inferences of the most extreme surge return levels.
Balkis Samah Kohila, Laurent Dezileau, Soumaya Boussetta, Tarek Melki, and Nejib Kallel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3645–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3645-2021, 2021
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The Tunisian coast has been historically affected by extreme marine submersion events resulting from storms or tsunamis. To establish adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is essential to study these events in terms of spatial and temporal variability. Using a geological archive (sediment cores and surface sediments) retrieved from this coastal area of Tunisia, we present a reconstruction of past marine submersion events over the last 2500 years.
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Short summary
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from...
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