Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-849-2022

Research article 15 Mar 2022

Research article | 15 Mar 2022

Robust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: towards low-cost satellite-based tsunami warning systems

Ryuichi Kanai et al.

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The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 min of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
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