Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022
Research article
 | 
11 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 11 Aug 2022

Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during the last 2 millennia

Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham

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Cited articles

Agnon, A.: Pre-instrumental earthquakes along the Dead Sea rift, in: Dead Sea transform fault system: Reviews, edited by: Garfunkel, Z., Ben-Avraham, Z., and Kagan, E., Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 207–261, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8872-4_8, 2014. 
Ambraseys, N.: Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: a multidisciplinary study of seismicity up to 1900, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139195430, 2009. 
Ambraseys, N., Melville, C. P., and Adams, R. D.: The Seismicity of Egypt, Arabia and the Red Sea: A Historical Review, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1356186300007240, 1994. 
Amiran, D. H., Arieh, E., and Turcotte, T.: Earthquakes in Israel and adjacent areas: macroscopic observations since 100 B.C.E., Isr. Explor. J., 44, 260–305, http://www.jstor.org/stable/27926357 (last access: 22 July 2022), 1994. 
Anderson, E. M.: The Dynamics of Faulting and Dyke Formation with applications to Britain, 2nd edn., edited by: Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh, Scotland, 1951. 
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Short summary
Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
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