Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Research article
 | 
11 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 11 Aug 2022

Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during the last 2 millennia

Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham

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Short summary
Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
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