Articles | Volume 22, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 09 Jun 2022
| 09 Jun 2022
Hidden-state modeling of a cross-section of geoelectric time series data can provide reliable intermediate-term probabilistic earthquake forecasting in Taiwan
Haoyu Wen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link,
637371, Singapore
Hong-Jia Chen
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan
32001, Taiwan
Chien-Chih Chen
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan
32001, Taiwan
Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center,
National Central University, Taoyuan 32001, Taiwan
Massimo Pica Ciamarra
Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link,
637371, Singapore
Siew Ann Cheong
Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link,
637371, Singapore
Related authors
No articles found.
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the spatiotemporial seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help to the earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around southern Central Range, or the accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
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Short summary
Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep...
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