Hidden-state modeling of a cross-section of geoelectric time series data can provide reliable intermediate-term probabilistic earthquake forecasting in Taiwan
Haoyu Wen,Hong-Jia Chen,Chien-Chih Chen,Massimo Pica Ciamarra,and Siew Ann Cheong
Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link,
637371, Singapore
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan
32001, Taiwan
Chien-Chih Chen
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan
32001, Taiwan
Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center,
National Central University, Taoyuan 32001, Taiwan
Massimo Pica Ciamarra
Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link,
637371, Singapore
Siew Ann Cheong
Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link,
637371, Singapore
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Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep...
