Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3333-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3333-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 09 Dec 2020
| 09 Dec 2020
Spatiotemporal changes of seismicity rate during earthquakes
State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
Yang-Yi Sun
Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
Strong Wen
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, National Chung Cheng University, Chiayi, Taiwan
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
Li-Ching Lin
Department of System Engineering and Naval Architecture, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan
Huaizhong Yu
China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, China
Xuemin Zhang
Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China
Yongxin Gao
School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, China
Chi-Chia Tang
State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
Cheng-Horng Lin
Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Jann-Yenq Liu
Center for Astronautical Physics and Engineering, National Central
University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
Department of space science and engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
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In the present study, we analyze ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.
Midhat Fayaz, Shakil A. Romshoo, Irfan Rashid, and Rakesh Chandra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1593–1611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1593-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes cause immense loss of lives and damage to properties, particularly in major urban centres. The city of Srinagar, which houses around 1.5 million people, is susceptible to high seismic hazards due to its peculiar geological setting, urban setting, demographic profile, and tectonic setting. Keeping in view all of these factors, the present study investigates the earthquake vulnerability of buildings in Srinagar, an urban city in the northwestern Himalayas, India.
Mathilde B. Sørensen, Torbjørn Haga, and Atle Nesje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1577-2023, 2023
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Most Norwegian landslides are triggered by rain or snowmelt, and earthquakes have not been considered a relevant trigger mechanism even though some cases have been reported. Here we systematically search historical documents and databases and find 22 landslides induced by eight large Norwegian earthquakes. The Norwegian earthquakes induce landslides at distances and over areas that are much larger than those found for global datasets.
Rimali Mitra, Hajime Naruse, and Tomoya Abe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-369, 2023
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Chiara Varone, Gianluca Carbone, Anna Baris, Maria Chiara Caciolli, Stefania Fabozzi, Carolina Fortunato, Iolanda Gaudiosi, Silvia Giallini, Marco Mancini, Luca Paolella, Maurizio Simionato, Pietro Sirianni, Rose Line Spacagna, Francesco Stigliano, Daniel Tentori, Luca Martelli, Giuseppe Modoni, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1371–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1371-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new framework for the rapid seismic loss prediction for residential buildings in Christchurch, New Zealand. The initial model was trained on insurance claims from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning were used to develop the prediction model, which also delivered useful insights. The model can rapidly be updated with data from new earthquakes. It can then be applied to predict building loss in Christchurch.
Sasan Motaghed, Mozhgan Khazaee, Nasrollah Eftekhari, and Mohammad Mohammadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1117–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023, 2023
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We modify the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) formulation by replacing the Gutenberg–Richter power law with the SCP (Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas) non-extensive model for earthquake size distribution and call it NEPSHA. The proposed method (NEPSHA) is implemented in the Tehran region, and the results are compared with the classic PSHA method. The hazard curves show that NEPSHA gives a higher hazard, especially in the range of practical return periods.
Paola Sbarra, Pierfrancesco Burrato, Valerio De Rubeis, Patrizia Tosi, Gianluca Valensise, Roberto Vallone, and Paola Vannoli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1007–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1007-2023, 2023
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Earthquakes are fundamental for understanding how the earth works and for assessing seismic risk. We can easily measure the magnitude and depth of today's earthquakes, but can we also do it for pre-instrumental ones? We did it by analyzing the decay of earthquake effects (on buildings, people, and objects) with epicentral distance. Our results may help derive data that would be impossible to obtain otherwise, for any country where the earthquake history extends for centuries, such as Italy.
Haekal A. Haridhi, Bor Shouh Huang, Kuo Liang Wen, Arif Mirza, Syamsul Rizal, Syahrul Purnawan, Ilham Fajri, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Char Shine Liu, Chao Shing Lee, Crispen R. Wilson, Tso-Ren Wu, Ichsan Setiawan, and Van Bang Phung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-507-2023, 2023
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Near the northern end of Sumatra, the horizontal movement Sumatran fault zone extended to its northern offshore. The movement of offshore fault segments trigger submarine landslides and induce tsunamis. Scenarios of a significant tsunami caused by the combined effect of an earthquake and its triggered submarine landslide at the coast were proposed in this study. Based on our finding, the landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this region should be urgently considered.
Lixin Wu, Yuan Qi, Wenfei Mao, Jingchen Lu, Yifan Ding, Boqi Peng, and Busheng Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-231-2023, 2023
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Multiple seismic anomalies were reported to be related to the 2015 Nepal earthquake. By sufficiently investigating both the space–time features and the physical models of the seismic anomalies, the coupling mechanisms of these anomalies in 3D space were revealed and an integrated framework to strictly root the sources of various anomalies was proposed. This study provides a practical solution for scrutinizing reliable seismic anomalies from diversified earthquake observations.
David Montiel-López, Sergio Molina, Juan José Galiana-Merino, and Igor Gómez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-91-2023, 2023
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One of the most effective ways to describe the seismicity of a region is to map the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter law. This research proposes the study of the spatial cell-event distance distribution to define the smoothing kernel that controls the influence of the data. The results of this methodology depict tectonic stress changes before and after intense earthquakes happen, so it could enable operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and tectonic source profiling.
Pierre Henry, M. Sinan Özeren, Nurettin Yakupoğlu, Ziyadin Çakir, Emmanuel de Saint-Léger, Olivier Desprez de Gésincourt, Anders Tengberg, Cristele Chevalier, Christos Papoutsellis, Nazmi Postacıoğlu, Uğur Dogan, Hayrullah Karabulut, Gülsen Uçarkuş, and M. Namık Çağatay
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3939–3956, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3939-2022, 2022
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Seafloor instruments at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara recorded disturbances caused by earthquakes, addressing the minimum magnitude that may be recorded in the sediment. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake caused turbidity but little current. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake caused a mudflow and strong currents that spread sediment on the seafloor over several kilometers. However, most known earthquake deposits in the Sea of Marmara spread over larger zones and should correspond to larger earthquakes.
Nicola Alessandro Pino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3787–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3787-2022, 2022
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The 1908 Messina Straits earthquake is one of the most severe seismic catastrophes in human history and is periodically back in the public discussion because of a project of building a bridge across the Straits. Some models proposed for the fault assume precursory subsidence preceding the quake, resulting in a structure significantly different from the previously debated ones and important hazard implications. The analysis of the historical sea level data allows the rejection of this hypothesis.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
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We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
Mohamadreza Hosseini and Habib Rahimi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3571–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3571-2022, 2022
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Earthquakes, not only because of earth-shaking but also because of surface ruptures, are a serious threat to many human activities. Reducing earthquake losses and damage requires predicting the amplitude and location of ground movements and possible surface displacements in the future. Using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated.
Maria Francesca Ferrario
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3527–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3527-2022, 2022
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I mapped over 5000 landslides triggered by a moment magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred in 2015 in the Sabah region (Malaysia). I analyzed their number, dimension and spatial distribution by dividing the territory into 1 km2 cells. I applied the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which allows the categorization of earthquake damage due to environmental effects. The presented approach promotes the collaboration among the experts in landslide mapping and in ESI-07 assignment.
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022, 2022
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We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Francesco Visini, Carlo Meletti, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Silvia Pondrelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2807–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2807-2022, 2022
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As new data are collected, seismic hazard models can be updated and improved. In the framework of a project aimed to update the Italian seismic hazard model, we proposed a model based on the definition and parametrization of area sources. Using geological data, seismicity and other geophysical constraints, we delineated three-dimensional boundaries and activity rates of a seismotectonic zoning and explored the epistemic uncertainty by means of a logic-tree approach.
Mariana Belferman, Amotz Agnon, Regina Katsman, and Zvi Ben-Avraham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022, 2022
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Internal fluid pressure in pores leads to breaking. With this mechanical principle and a correlation between historical water level changes and seismicity, we explore possible variants for water level reconstruction in the Dead Sea basin. Using the best-correlated variant, an additional indication is established regarding the location of historical earthquakes. This leads us to propose a certain forecast for the next earthquake in view of the fast and persistent dropping level of the Dead Sea.
Xuezhong Chen, Yane Li, and Lijuan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2543–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2543-2022, 2022
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When the tectonic stress in the crust increases, the b value will decrease, meaning the effects of tidal stresses are enhanced gradually. Increase in the tidal Coulomb failure stress might promote the occurrence of earthquakes, whereas its decrease could have an opposite effect. This observation may provide an insight into the processes leading to the Wenchuan earthquake and its precursors.
Fabrizio Marra, Alberto Frepoli, Dario Gioia, Marcello Schiattarella, Andrea Tertulliani, Monica Bini, Gaetano De Luca, and Marco Luppichini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2445–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2445-2022, 2022
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Through the analysis of the morphostructural setting in which the seismicity of Rome is framed, we explain why the city should not expect to suffer damage from a big earthquake.
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-595, 2022
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It is necessary to know the earthquake occurrence for a country listed along the countries with the highest earthquake hazard, such as Albania. Thus, we proposed two earthquake forecasting models to present the seismicity activity, which consequently can be applied to evaluate potential seismicity hazard.
Chengjun Feng, Guangliang Gao, Shihuai Zhang, Dongsheng Sun, Siyu Zhu, Chengxuan Tan, and Xiaodong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2257–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2257-2022, 2022
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We show how FSP (Fault Slip Potential) software can be used in quantitative screening to estimate the fault slip potential in a region with some uncertainties in the ambient stress field and to assess the reactivation potential on these faults of presumably higher criticality in response to fluid injection. The case study of the Matouying enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field has important implications for deep geothermal exploitation in China, especially for the Gonghe EGS in Qinghai Province.
Patrick Oswald, Michael Strasser, Jens Skapski, and Jasper Moernaut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2057-2022, 2022
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This study provides the first regional earthquake catalogue of the eastern Alps spanning 16 000 years by using three lake paleoseismic records. Recurrence statistics reveal that earthquakes recur every 1000–2000 years in an aperiodic pattern. The magnitudes of paleo-earthquakes exceed the historically documented values. This study estimates magnitude and source areas for severe paleo-earthquakes, and their shaking effects are explored in the broader study area.
Haoyu Wen, Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Massimo Pica Ciamarra, and Siew Ann Cheong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1931–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1931-2022, 2022
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Recently, there has been growing interest from earth scientists to use the electric field deep underground to forecast earthquakes. We go one step further by using the electric fields, which can be directly measured, to separate/classify time periods with two labels only according to the statistical properties of the electric fields. By checking against historical earthquake records, we found time periods covered by one of the two labels to have significantly more frequent earthquakes.
Karma Tempa, Komal Raj Aryal, Nimesh Chettri, Giovanni Forte, and Dipendra Gautam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1893–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1893-2022, 2022
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This paper performs site response analysis and studies soil amplification for Bhutan Himalaya. A sensitivity study is performed to assess the effect of variation in strong ground motion.
Tayeb Smail, Mohamed Abed, Ahmed Mebarki, and Milan Lazecky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1609–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1609-2022, 2022
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The Sentinel-1 SAR datasets and Sentinel-2 data are used in this study to investigate the impact of natural hazards (earthquakes and landslides) on struck areas. In InSAR processing, the use of DInSAR, CCD methods, and the LiCSBAS tool permit generation of time-series analysis of ground changes. Three land failures were detected in the study area. CCD is suitable to map landslides that may remain undetected using DInSAR. In Grarem, the failure rim is clear in coherence and phase maps.
Jonatan Glehman and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1451–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1451-2022, 2022
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Due to an insufficient number of recorded moderate–strong earthquakes in Israel, estimating the ground motions and the subsequent seismic hazard mitigation becomes a challenge. To fill this gap, we performed a series of 3-D numerical simulations of moderate and moderate–strong earthquakes. We examined the ground motions and their variability through a self-developed statistical model. However, the model cannot fully capture the ground motion variability due to the local seismotectonic setting.
Federico Mori, Amerigo Mendicelli, Gaetano Falcone, Gianluca Acunzo, Rose Line Spacagna, Giuseppe Naso, and Massimiliano Moscatelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 947–966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-947-2022, 2022
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This work addresses the problem of the ground motion estimation over large areas as an important tool for seismic-risk reduction policies. In detail, the near-real-time estimation of ground motion is a key issue for emergency system management. Starting from this consideration, the present work proposes the application of a machine learning approach to produce ground motion maps, using nine input proxies. Such proxies consider seismological, geophysical, and morphological parameters.
Margarida Ramalho, Luis Matias, Marta Neres, Michele M. C. Carafa, Alexandra Carvalho, and Paula Teves-Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-117-2022, 2022
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is the most common tool used to decide on the acceptable seismic risk by society and mitigation measures. In slowly deforming regions, such Iberia, the earthquake generation models (EGMs) for PSHA suffer from great uncertainty. In this work we propose two sanity tests to be applied to EGMs, comparing the EGM moment release with constrains derived from GNSS observations or neotectonic modelling. Similar tests should be part of other region studies.
Janneke van Ginkel, Elmer Ruigrok, Jan Stafleu, and Rien Herber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-41-2022, 2022
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A soft, shallow subsurface composition has the tendency to amplify earthquake waves, resulting in increased ground shaking. Therefore, this paper presents a workflow in order to obtain a map classifying the response of the subsurface based on local geology, earthquake signals, and background noise recordings for the Netherlands. The resulting map can be used as a first assessment in regions with earthquake hazard potential by mining or geothermal energy activities, for example.
Enrico Baglione, Stefano Lorito, Alessio Piatanesi, Fabrizio Romano, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Hafize Basak Bayraktar, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3713-2021, 2021
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We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
Navid Hooshangi, Ali Asghar Alesheikh, Mahdi Panahi, and Saro Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3449–3463, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3449-2021, 2021
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Task allocation under uncertain conditions is a key problem for agents attempting to achieve harmony in disaster environments. This paper presents an agent-based simulation to investigate task allocation considering appropriate spatial strategies to manage uncertainty in urban search and rescue (USAR) operations.
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Short summary
Scientists demystify stress changes before mainshocks and utilize the foreshocks as an indicator. We investigate changes in seismicity far from mainshocks by using tens of thousands of M ≥ 2 quakes for 10 years in Taiwan and Japan. The results show that wide areas exhibit increased seismicity occurring more than several times in areas of the fault rupture. The stressed crust triggers resonance at frequencies varying from ~ 5 × 10–4 to ~ 10–3 Hz that is supported by the resonant frequency model.
Scientists demystify stress changes before mainshocks and utilize the foreshocks as an...
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