Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, 2019
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, 2019

Research article 17 Apr 2019

Research article | 17 Apr 2019

Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Andrea Bevilacqua et al.

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Cited articles

Aghakhani, H., Dalbey, K., Salac, D., and Patra, A. K.: Heuristic and Eulerian interface capturing approaches for shallow water type flow and application to granular flows, Comput. Meth. Appl. Mech. Eng., 304, 243–264,, 2016. a
Ai, M., Kong, X., and Li, K.: A general theory for orthogonal array based latin hypercube sampling, Statist. Sin., 26, 761–777,, 2016. a
Akhavan-Safaei, A.: Analysis and Implementation of Multiple Models and Multi-Models for Shallow-Water Type Models of Large Mass Flows, MS thesis, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, 2018. a
Allan, J.: Geology of the northern Colima and Zacoalco grabens, southwest Mexico: Late Cenozoic rifting in the Mexican volcanic belt, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 97, 473–485,<473:GOTNCA>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Bartelt, P. and McArdell, B.: Granulometric investigations of snow avalanches, J. Glaciol., 55, 829–833, 2009. a
Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.
Final-revised paper