Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Research article
17 Apr 2019
Research article |  | 17 Apr 2019

Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman

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Cited articles

Aghakhani, H., Dalbey, K., Salac, D., and Patra, A. K.: Heuristic and Eulerian interface capturing approaches for shallow water type flow and application to granular flows, Comput. Meth. Appl. Mech. Eng., 304, 243–264,, 2016. a
Ai, M., Kong, X., and Li, K.: A general theory for orthogonal array based latin hypercube sampling, Statist. Sin., 26, 761–777,, 2016. a
Akhavan-Safaei, A.: Analysis and Implementation of Multiple Models and Multi-Models for Shallow-Water Type Models of Large Mass Flows, MS thesis, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, 2018. a
Allan, J.: Geology of the northern Colima and Zacoalco grabens, southwest Mexico: Late Cenozoic rifting in the Mexican volcanic belt, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 97, 473–485,<473:GOTNCA>2.0.CO;2, 1986. a
Bartelt, P. and McArdell, B.: Granulometric investigations of snow avalanches, J. Glaciol., 55, 829–833, 2009. a
Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.
Final-revised paper