Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019

Research article 17 Apr 2019

Research article | 17 Apr 2019

Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Andrea Bevilacqua et al.

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Cited articles

Aghakhani, H., Dalbey, K., Salac, D., and Patra, A. K.: Heuristic and Eulerian interface capturing approaches for shallow water type flow and application to granular flows, Comput. Meth. Appl. Mech. Eng., 304, 243–264, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2016.02.021, 2016. a
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We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.
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