Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 17 Apr 2019
| 17 Apr 2019
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955
Andrea Bevilacqua
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
Computational Data Science and Engineering programme, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56126, Italy
Abani K. Patra
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, SUNY at Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
Computational Data Science and Engineering programme, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
Marcus I. Bursik
Department of Earth Sciences, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
E. Bruce Pitman
Department of Materials Design and Innovation, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
José Luis Macías
Departamento de Vulcanología, Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM, Mexico City, DF, 04510, Mexico
Ricardo Saucedo
Instituto de Geología, Facultad de Ingeniería, UASLP, San Luis, SLP, 78240, Mexico
David Hyman
Department of Earth Sciences, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 14260, USA
now at: Collaborative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, UW, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location D. Hyman et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019
- Calibration strategies of PDC kinetic energy models and their application to the construction of hazard maps A. Aravena et al. 10.1007/s00445-022-01538-8
- Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents R. Rutarindwa et al. 10.1029/2019JB017352
- Avalanche hazard mapping in Langtang, Nepal Y. ITO et al. 10.5331/bgr.23A01
- Emulator-based global sensitivity analysis for flow-like landslide run-out models H. Zhao et al. 10.1007/s10346-021-01690-w
- Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan) A. Bevilacqua et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022
- Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) A. Bevilacqua et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021
- Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response D. Hyman et al. 10.1007/s00445-024-01783-z
- Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures Q. Yang et al. 10.1098/rspa.2020.0161
- Synthetic benchmarking of concentrated pyroclastic current models V. Gueugneau et al. 10.1007/s00445-021-01491-y
- Reproducing pyroclastic density current deposits of the 79 CE eruption of the Somma–Vesuvius volcano using the box-model approach A. Tadini et al. 10.5194/se-12-119-2021
- Comparative Analysis of the Structures and Outcomes of Geophysical Flow Models and Modeling Assumptions Using Uncertainty Quantification A. Patra et al. 10.3389/feart.2020.00275
- Tephra Fallout Probabilistic Hazard Maps for Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha Volcanoes (Ecuador) With Uncertainty Quantification A. Tadini et al. 10.1029/2021JB022780
- Editorial: Field Data, Models and Uncertainty in Hazard Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents and Lahars: Global Perspectives P. Tierz et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.665725
- Toward Next‐Generation Lava Flow Forecasting: Development of a Fast, Physics‐Based Lava Propagation Model D. Hyman et al. 10.1029/2022JB024998
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location D. Hyman et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019
- Calibration strategies of PDC kinetic energy models and their application to the construction of hazard maps A. Aravena et al. 10.1007/s00445-022-01538-8
- Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents R. Rutarindwa et al. 10.1029/2019JB017352
- Avalanche hazard mapping in Langtang, Nepal Y. ITO et al. 10.5331/bgr.23A01
- Emulator-based global sensitivity analysis for flow-like landslide run-out models H. Zhao et al. 10.1007/s10346-021-01690-w
- Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan) A. Bevilacqua et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022
- Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) A. Bevilacqua et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021
- Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response D. Hyman et al. 10.1007/s00445-024-01783-z
- Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures Q. Yang et al. 10.1098/rspa.2020.0161
- Synthetic benchmarking of concentrated pyroclastic current models V. Gueugneau et al. 10.1007/s00445-021-01491-y
- Reproducing pyroclastic density current deposits of the 79 CE eruption of the Somma–Vesuvius volcano using the box-model approach A. Tadini et al. 10.5194/se-12-119-2021
- Comparative Analysis of the Structures and Outcomes of Geophysical Flow Models and Modeling Assumptions Using Uncertainty Quantification A. Patra et al. 10.3389/feart.2020.00275
- Tephra Fallout Probabilistic Hazard Maps for Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha Volcanoes (Ecuador) With Uncertainty Quantification A. Tadini et al. 10.1029/2021JB022780
- Editorial: Field Data, Models and Uncertainty in Hazard Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents and Lahars: Global Perspectives P. Tierz et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.665725
- Toward Next‐Generation Lava Flow Forecasting: Development of a Fast, Physics‐Based Lava Propagation Model D. Hyman et al. 10.1029/2022JB024998
Latest update: 31 Oct 2025
Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of
multi-model solvers.
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris...
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