Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Research article
 | 
17 Apr 2019
Research article |  | 17 Apr 2019

Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman

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Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.
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