Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Patra, Abani K.; Bursik, Marcus I.; Pitman, E. Bruce; Macías, José Luis; Saucedo, Ricardo; Hyman, David

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

Research article

|

17 Apr 2019

Research article |

| 17 Apr 2019

Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Andrea Bevilacqua, Abani K. Patra, Marcus I. Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, José Luis Macías, Ricardo Saucedo, and David Hyman

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Final revised paper (published on 17 Apr 2019)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 12 Nov 2018)
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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of the paper "Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (México) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955"', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Dec 2018
- AC1: 'Response to RC1', Andrea Bevilacqua, 14 Mar 2019
RC2: 'Review; Bevilacqua et al. "Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (México) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955"', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Feb 2019
- AC2: 'Response to RC2', Andrea Bevilacqua, 14 Mar 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Mar 2019) by Giovanni Macedonio

AR by Andrea Bevilacqua on behalf of the Authors (25 Mar 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (03 Apr 2019) by Giovanni Macedonio

AR by Andrea Bevilacqua on behalf of the Authors (05 Apr 2019) Manuscript

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Short summary

We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.