Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 791–820, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019

Research article 17 Apr 2019

Research article | 17 Apr 2019

Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955

Andrea Bevilacqua et al.

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Mar 2019) by Giovanni Macedonio
AR by Andrea Bevilacqua on behalf of the Authors (25 Mar 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (03 Apr 2019) by Giovanni Macedonio
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Short summary
We introduce a new prediction-oriented method for hazard assessment of volcaniclastic debris flows, based on multiple models. We apply our procedure to a case study of the 1955 Atenquique flow, using three widely used depth-averaged models. Depending on how it is looked at, the exercise provides useful information in either model selection or data inversion. Connecting inverse problems and model uncertainty represents a fundamental challenge in the future development of multi-model solvers.
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