Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jul 2019
Research article |
| 18 Jul 2019
| 18 Jul 2019
Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Carlos C. DaCamara
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Kamil F. Turkman
DEIO-CEAUL, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Teresa J. Calado
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Ricardo M. Trigo
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Maria A. A. Turkman
DEIO-CEAUL, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Related authors
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Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Here we investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river leading to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on day 12.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
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The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Nieves Bravo-Paredes, María Cruz Gallego, Ricardo M. Trigo, and José Manuel Vaquero
Clim. Past, 19, 1397–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, 2023
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We present the earliest records made in San Fernando, very close to Cádiz (SW Spain). Several previous works have already recovered a significant number of meteorological records of interest in these localities. However, more than 40 000 daily meteorological observations recorded at the Royal Observatory of the Spanish Navy (located in San Fernando) were previously unnoticed and remained neither digitized nor studied. We analyze in detail these newly recovered meteorological readings.
Miguel M. Lima, Célia M. Gouveia, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Ocean Sci., 18, 1419–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1419-2022, 2022
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This article aims to explore the interaction between tropical cyclones and the ocean in a less studied area regarding these events. Tropical cyclones generally create an area of colder waters behind them, which in turn can contribute to an increase in biological activity. In the Azores region, the intensity, track geometry, and impact area of the cyclones are the most important factors to determine these responses. The speed of the cyclones was found to be more important for biological activity.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
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To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
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The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
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Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
P. S. Silva, J. A. Rodrigues, F. L. M. Santos, A. A. Pereira, J. Nogueira, C. C. DaCamara, and R. Libonati
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W12-2020, 135–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W12-2020-135-2020, 2020
Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, Emanuel Dutra, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 877–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, 2020
Joana Gouveia Freire and Carlos Castro DaCamara
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 169–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-169-2019, 2019
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Cellular automata are useful tools to simulate wildfire propagation. We design a cellular automaton to simulate a severe wildfire that took place in Portugal in 2012 and resulted in almost 25 000 ha burned. The explosive stage is adequately modeled when refining the role played by the wind in fire spreading. Results show a probability of ignition out of the limits of the observed scar, information that may help choose where to allocate resources for firefighting.
Patrícia Páscoa, Célia M. Gouveia, Ana C. Russo, Roxana Bojariu, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Julien Ruffault, Thomas Curt, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, Vincent Moron, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 847–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, 2018
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Extreme wildfires events (EWE) have been recorded during the past year in the Mediterranean. By analyzing the climatic conditions associated with the French 2003 and 2016 fires seasons, we found that EWE were associated to two distinct climatic events whose frequencies are both expected to increase with global changes: hot droughts and long droughts. These results suggest that EWE are likely to become more common in the future and will certainly challenge fire management.
Miguel M. Pinto, Carlos C. DaCamara, Isabel F. Trigo, Ricardo M. Trigo, and K. Feridun Turkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 515–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018, 2018
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We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts. Results obtained show that about 72 % of severe events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the
extremeclass of fire danger. The procedure is expected to assist in wildfire management and in decision making on prescribed burning.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
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This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Tomé, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and David A. Lavers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, 2016
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An atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014. A Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture of the ARs that reach western European coasts. Results confirm not only the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical one.
S. Pereira, A. M. Ramos, J. L. Zêzere, R. M. Trigo, and J. M. Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, 2016
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This work explores the meteorological conditions of the hydro-geomorphologic event of December 1909 that triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the Douro river's mouth and caused important social impacts over the Portuguese and Spanish territories.
The study of this extreme event contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic disaster event occurred in Portugal since 1865.
L. Gimeno, M. Vázquez, R. Nieto, and R. M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 583–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-583-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-583-2015, 2015
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There appears to be a connection between two climate change indicators: an increase in evaporation over source regions and Arctic ice melting.
A. Bastos, C. M. Gouveia, R. M. Trigo, and S. W. Running
Biogeosciences, 11, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, 2014
S. Jerez, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, J. P. Montávez, and R. M. Trigo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11195–11207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11195-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11195-2013, 2013
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
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Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4225–4235, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024, 2024
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Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, and Peter Lehmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3387–3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3387-2024, 2024
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Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground–snow interface, and their release process is poorly understood. To investigate the influence of spatial variability (snowpack and basal friction) on avalanche release, we developed a 3D, mechanical, threshold-based model that reproduces an observed release area distribution. A sensitivity analysis showed that the distribution was mostly influenced by the basal friction uniformity, while the variations in snowpack properties had little influence.
Kang He, Xinyi Shen, Cory Merow, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Rachael V. Gallagher, Feifei Yang, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3337–3355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3337-2024, 2024
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A framework combining a fire severity classification with a regression model to predict an indicator of fire severity derived from Landsat imagery (difference normalized burning ratio, dNBR) is proposed. The results show that the proposed predictive technique is capable of providing robust fire severity prediction information, which can be used for forecasting seasonal fire severity and, subsequently, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems under projected future climate conditions.
Audun Hetland, Rebecca Anne Hetland, Tarjei Tveito Skille, and Andrea Mannberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1628, 2024
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Research on human factor in avalanche decision making has become increasingly popular the past two decades. The studies span across a wide range of disciplines and is published in a variety of journals. To provide an overview of the literature this study provide a systematic scooping review of human factor in avalanche decision making. 70 papers fulfilled the search criteria. We extracted data and sorted the papers according to their main theme.
Håvard B. Toft, Samuel V. Verplanck, and Markus Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2757–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2757-2024, 2024
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This study investigates inconsistencies in impact force as part of extended column tests (ECTs). We measured force-time curves from 286 practitioners in Scandinavia, Central Europe, and North America. The results show a large variability in peak forces and loading rates across wrist, elbow, and shoulder taps, challenging the ECT's reliability.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
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Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Tandin Wangchuk and Ryota Tsubaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2523–2540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2523-2024, 2024
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A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a natural hazard in which water from a glacier-fed lake is swiftly discharged, causing serious harm to life, infrastructure, and communities. We used numerical models to predict the potential consequences of a GLOF originating from the Thorthomi glacial lake in Bhutan. We found that if a GLOF occurs, the lake could release massive flood water within 4 h, posing a considerable risk. Study findings help to mitigate the impacts of future GLOFs.
Katharina Heike Horn, Stenka Vulova, Hanyu Li, and Birgit Kleinschmit
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1380, 2024
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In this study we applied Random Forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-east Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % to 71 % showing a moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters for FFS. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management.
Håvard B. Toft, John Sykes, Andrew Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, and Audun Hetland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1779-2024, 2024
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Manual Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping is time-consuming and inefficient for large-scale applications. The updated algorithm for automated ATES mapping overcomes previous limitations by including forest density data, improving the avalanche runout estimations in low-angle runout zones, accounting for overhead exposure and open-source software. Results show that the latest version has significantly improved its performance.
Paula Aguirre, Jorge León, Constanza González-Mathiesen, Randy Román, Manuela Penas, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1521–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1521-2024, 2024
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Wildfires pose a significant risk to property located in the wildland–urban interface (WUI). To assess and mitigate this risk, we need to understand which characteristics of buildings and building arrangements make them more prone to damage. We used a combination of data collection and analysis methods to study the vulnerability of dwellings in the WUI for case studies in Chile and concluded that the spatial arrangement of houses has a substantial impact on their vulnerability to wildfires.
Martín Domínguez Durán, María Angélica Sandoval Garzón, and Carme Huguet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1319-2024, 2024
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In this study we created a cost-effective alternative to bridge the baseline information gap on indoor radon (a highly carcinogenic gas) in regions where measurements are scarce. We model indoor radon concentrations to understand its spatial distribution and the potential influential factors. We evaluated the performance of this alternative using a small number of measurements taken in Bogotá, Colombia. Our results show that this alternative could help in the making of future studies and policy.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, 2024
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We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good aggreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences while it remained unclear which data source represented reality best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-690, 2024
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To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, and Siv Å. Seljesæter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1185–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1185-2024, 2024
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Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow released in gently sloping terrain (< 30°), often unexpectedly. Early warning is crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional early warning for slushflow hazard was established in Norway in 2013–2014 and has been operational since. We present a methodology using the ratio between water supply and snow depth by snow type to assess slushflow hazard. This approach is useful for other areas with slushflow hazard.
Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, and Séverine Bernardie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 999–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-999-2024, 2024
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This work presents a drought index specifically adapted to subsidence, a seasonal phenomenon of soil shrinkage that occurs frequently in France and damages buildings. The index is computed from land surface model simulations and evaluated by a rank correlation test with insurance data. With its optimal configuration, the index is able to identify years of both zero and significant loss.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
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The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
Jonas Mortelmans, Anne Felsberg, Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Sander Veraverbeke, Robert D. Field, Niels Andela, and Michel Bechtold
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 445–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-445-2024, 2024
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With global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the boreal region, accurate risk assessments are becoming more crucial than ever before. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a renowned system, yet its effectiveness in peatlands, where hydrology plays a key role, is limited. By incorporating groundwater data from numerical models and satellite observations, our modified FWI improves the accuracy of fire danger predictions, especially over summer.
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
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Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.
Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3445–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023, 2023
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We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Wei Yang, Zhongyan Wang, Baosheng An, Yingying Chen, Chuanxi Zhao, Chenhui Li, Yongjie Wang, Weicai Wang, Jiule Li, Guangjian Wu, Lin Bai, Fan Zhang, and Tandong Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3015-2023, 2023
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We present the structure and performance of the early warning system (EWS) for glacier collapse and river blockages in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The EWS warned of three collapse–river blockage chain events and seven small-scale events. The volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content influenced the velocities of debris flows. Such a study is helpful for understanding the mechanism of glacier hazards and for establishing similar EWSs in other high-risk regions.
Alba Marquez Torres, Giovanni Signorello, Sudeshna Kumar, Greta Adamo, Ferdinando Villa, and Stefano Balbi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2937–2959, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2937-2023, 2023
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Only by mapping fire risks can we manage forest and prevent fires under current and future climate conditions. We present a fire risk map based on k.LAB, artificial-intelligence-powered and open-source software integrating multidisciplinary knowledge in near real time. Through an easy-to-use web application, we model the hazard with 84 % accuracy for Sicily, a representative Mediterranean region. Fire risk analysis reveals 45 % of vulnerable areas face a high probability of danger in 2050.
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Frank Techel, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2895–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023, 2023
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Oftentimes when objective measurements are not possible, human estimates are used instead. In our study, we investigate the reproducibility of human judgement for size estimates, the mappings of avalanches from oblique photographs and remotely sensed imagery. The variability that we found in those estimates is worth considering as it may influence results and should be kept in mind for several applications.
Gerardo Romano, Marco Antonellini, Domenico Patella, Agata Siniscalchi, Andrea Tallarico, Simona Tripaldi, and Antonello Piombo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2719–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2719-2023, 2023
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The Nirano Salse (northern Apennines, Italy) is characterized by several active mud vents and hosts thousands of visitors every year. New resistivity models describe the area down to 250 m, improving our geostructural knowledge of the area and giving useful indications for a better understanding of mud volcano dynamics and for the better planning of safer tourist access to the area.
Harry Podschwit, William Jolly, Ernesto Alvarado, Andrea Markos, Satyam Verma, Sebastian Barreto-Rivera, Catherine Tobón-Cruz, and Blanca Ponce-Vigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2607–2624, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2607-2023, 2023
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We developed a model of fire spread that assumes that fire spreads in all directions at a constant speed and is extinguished at a constant rate. The model was fitted to 1003 fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020 using satellite burned area data from the GlobFire project. We fitted statistical models that predicted the spread and extinguish rates based on weather and land cover variables and found that these variables were good predictors of the spread and extinguish rates.
Anushilan Acharya, Jakob F. Steiner, Khwaja Momin Walizada, Salar Ali, Zakir Hussain Zakir, Arnaud Caiserman, and Teiji Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2569–2592, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2569-2023, 2023
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All accessible snow and ice avalanches together with previous scientific research, local knowledge, and existing or previously active adaptation and mitigation solutions were investigated in the high mountain Asia (HMA) region to have a detailed overview of the state of knowledge and identify gaps. A comprehensive avalanche database from 1972–2022 is generated, including 681 individual events. The database provides a basis for the forecasting of avalanche hazards in different parts of HMA.
Caili Zhong, Sibo Cheng, Matthew Kasoar, and Rossella Arcucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1755–1768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1755-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces a digital twin fire model using machine learning techniques to improve the efficiency of global wildfire predictions. The proposed model also manages to efficiently adjust the prediction results thanks to data assimilation techniques. The proposed digital twin runs 500 times faster than the current state-of-the-art physics-based model.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
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The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
Adrián Cardíl, Victor M. Tapia, Santiago Monedero, Tomás Quiñones, Kerryn Little, Cathelijne R. Stoof, Joaquín Ramirez, and Sergio de-Miguel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 361–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023, 2023
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This study aims to unravel large-fire behavior in northwest Europe, a temperate region with a projected increase in wildfire risk. We propose a new method to identify wildfire rate of spread from satellites because it is important to know periods of elevated fire risk for suppression methods and land management. Results indicate that there is a peak in the area burned and rate of spread in the months of March and April, and there are significant differences for forest-type land covers.
Liam S. Taylor, Duncan J. Quincey, and Mark W. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 329–341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-329-2023, 2023
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Hazards from glaciers are becoming more likely as the climate warms, which poses a threat to communities living beneath them. We have developed a new camera system which can capture regular, high-quality 3D models to monitor small changes in glaciers which could be indicative of a future hazard. This system is far cheaper than more typical camera sensors yet produces very similar quality data. We suggest that deploying these cameras near glaciers could assist in warning communities of hazards.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Grégoire Bobillier, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Philipp Weißgraeber, Valentin Adam, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-293-2023, 2023
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For a slab avalanche to release, the snowpack must facilitate crack propagation over large distances. Field measurements on crack propagation at this scale are very scarce. We performed a series of experiments, up to 10 m long, over a period of 10 weeks. Beside the temporal evolution of the mechanical properties of the snowpack, we found that crack speeds were highest for tests resulting in full propagation. Based on these findings, an index for self-sustained crack propagation is proposed.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
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In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
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In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4039–4062, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4039-2022, 2022
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Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential on predictions, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The models predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods but would benefit from further development.
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, Mário Pereira, João Silva, and João Nunes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4019–4037, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4019-2022, 2022
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Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires in Portugal. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with a prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt under less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings are a novelty for fire science in Portugal and should be considered for fire management.
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3917–3938, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3917-2022, 2022
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Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
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This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3501–3525, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3501-2022, 2022
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Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3487–3499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3487-2022, 2022
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Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
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Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3143–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3143-2022, 2022
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One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2981–3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2981-2022, 2022
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We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2673–2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2673-2022, 2022
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Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
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Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2031–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2031-2022, 2022
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A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1911–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022, 2022
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Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1825–1843, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1825-2022, 2022
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To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1335–1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1335-2022, 2022
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The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1181–1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1181-2022, 2022
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The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
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Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to...
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