Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Calado, Teresa J.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Turkman, Maria A. A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019

Articles | Volume 19, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory,...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 7

Research article

|

18 Jul 2019

Research article |

| 18 Jul 2019

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Maria A. A. Turkman

Data sets

Área ardida por tipo de ocupações de solo ICNF http://www2.icnf.pt/portal/florestas/dfci/inc/estat-sgif

Fire Risk Map (FRM, LSA-204) LSA-SAF https://landsaf.ipma.pt/en/products/fire-products/frm/

Short summary

Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.