Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
Research article
18 Jul 2019
Research article |  | 18 Jul 2019

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Maria A. A. Turkman


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Jun 2019) by Marj Tonini
AR by Sílvia Nunes on behalf of the Authors (27 Jun 2019)  Author's response   Manuscript 
Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Final-revised paper