Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019
Research article
 | 
18 Jul 2019
Research article |  | 18 Jul 2019

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Maria A. A. Turkman

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Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
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